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================================================    Thursday, June 17, 2004
 
Experimental Progressions for Even Bets

Hello everyone,

I didn't write a newsletter for about a month now.  I have been away on an excursion trip in Russia and visited many interesting places.  A friend asked me if I gambled in Moscow.  There are about 60 casinos there and I first went to the Metropol casino in the city centre right across the Bolshoi theatre.  To my amazement, they asked for a $500 entry fee, because I was a foreigner.  I replied that they will never be able to attract visitors this way and went off without entering.  Who knows, maybe they recognized me...  Of course, one can find casinos with no entry fees, particularly if one goes together with a local citizen and I did take advantage of some in the last 3 days of my visit, the profits of which covered the expenses of the trip.  One can get 30 Rubles for $1, making you feel you've got lots of bankroll.  IBS and a new strategy I have been perfecting did very well. 

Now to the main subject of this newsletter.  I came across an interesting post by Bob M. in one of the discussion forums.  He's been using a progression on pre-selected random decisions - a strategy I posted in the newsletter of September 13, 2001, with which he had lots of success.  Bob had modified the 5 step Martingale progression into some kind of a modified d'Alembert.

Following was his post:

"For one of the progression bets that made me some cash check out the "Even Bets System" thread.

Here is another that I tried in 4 casinos in a row and it consistently showed a profit.

Normally I have a pre-set of R/B bets on a chart I follow. I did this with a Martingale which netted me $100. Using that money, I decided to use the chart once again with the listed progression.  Won again through the series. Having cash, I decided to experiment just betting the last spin. Table was qualified by noting that there were several series of runs of Red/Black. If the table has too much zig-zag, this could be a tough grind.

As a side note, the dealer said that is the best bet system he's seen in a month, money-making wise, which I shall assume is the combo of of the two as it was the same dealer who was spinning when I bought in and colored out.

Follow the previous spin.  Lose - go up 3 units.  Win - go down 2 units. Two wins in a row - go down 5 units.  Keep going down 5 units on subsequent win until base bet is reached. Stay at base bet until a loss. Then reprogress upward. Stop loss on $5 bets is $27. If that high regress to $15 bets and continue as normal. Stop loss on $10 bets is $56. Started playing for $5 per bet."

I have tried this strategy and indeed it has merit.  I have run some tests and came up with my version of it, having built an Excel spreadsheet, that lets me experiment with different increments and decrements on wins and losses, charting the final results on a Baccarat shoe.  The spreadsheet takes into account also the commissions paid on Banker decision wins.

The spreadsheet takes as input the following 3 parameters:

1) the initial betting amount in terms of units or dollars;
2) the increment on a loss (how much to increase your bet if it loses)
3) the decrement on a win (how much to decrease your bet if it wins)

Setting the initial betting amount in a mid-range, rather than 1 unit has an advantage over it.  A win followed by a loss, will produce a profit.  So will a loss followed by a win.  If you start with 1 unit and don't reduce your bet after you win, a loss followed by a win will break even instead of gaining 1 unit.  That's why, it's advantageous to start with say 10 or 20 units, a parameter you can change in the spreadsheet.  Then you can move to either direction on a loss or on a win.

The spreadsheet automates a Baccarat shoe of 80 decisions.  Entering the 3 above parameters will let you know how the system will perform and you can find the ideal entries to produce long term profits with proper money management.   If you send me $10 by PayPal to webmaster@letstalkwinning.com, I will email you the spreadsheet.  You can also pay by credit card by simply filling out the secure order form at: /order/ with your credit card information and a little note specifying that you're interested in the "Experimental Progression for Even Bets".

Here are some highlights of the spreadsheet.  As Bob's strategy, it follows the last decision.  Baccarat is quite a streaky game.  Even if it may zig-zag at times between Player and Banker decisions, you are very likely to encounter many shoes with lots of streaks or repeating Player and Banker decisions.  You bet on every decision within the shoe, except the very first one, where you observe the decision and bet on the same one on the following bet:

Setting the initial betting amount to 20, the increment on a loss to 3, the decrement on a win to 2, you can see in the following chart how the system would perform on a random shoe:

Hand Player / Banker Bet on W/L Bet Cash Net
1 B          
2 B B W 20 19 19
3 P B L 18 -18 1
4 P P W 21 21 22
5 P P W 19 19 41
6 B P L 17 -17 24
7 B B W 20 19 43
8 P B L 18 -18 25
9 P P W 21 21 46
10 P P W 19 19 65
11 P P W 17 17 82
12 P P W 15 15 97
13 B P L 13 -13 84
14 B B W 16 15.2 99.2
15 B B W 14 13.3 112.5
16 B B W 12 11.4 123.9
17 P B L 10 -10 113.9
18 B P L 13 -13 100.9
19 P B L 16 -16 84.9
20 P P W 19 19 103.9
21 P P W 17 17 120.9
22 B P L 15 -15 105.9
23 B B W 18 17.1 123
24 P B L 16 -16 107
25 P P W 19 19 126
26 B P L 17 -17 109
27 P B L 20 -20 89
28 B P L 23 -23 66
29 B B W 26 24.7 90.7
30 B B W 24 22.8 113.5
31 B B W 22 20.9 134.4
32 P B L 20 -20 114.4
33 B P L 23 -23 91.4
34 P B L 26 -26 65.4
35 P P W 29 29 94.4
36 B P L 27 -27 67.4
37 B B W 30 28.5 95.9
38 P B L 28 -28 67.9
39 B P L 31 -31 36.9
40 P B L 34 -34 2.9
41 P P W 37 37 39.9
42 P P W 35 35 74.9
43 B P L 33 -33 41.9
44 B B W 36 34.2 76.1
45 B B W 34 32.3 108.4
46 B B W 32 30.4 138.8
47 P B L 30 -30 108.8
48 P P W 33 33 141.8
49 B P L 31 -31 110.8
50 B B W 34 32.3 143.1
51 P B L 32 -32 111.1
52 P P W 35 35 146.1
53 P P W 33 33 179.1
54 B P L 31 -31 148.1
55 B B W 34 32.3 180.4
56 P B L 32 -32 148.4
57 B P L 35 -35 113.4
58 P B L 38 -38 75.4
59 P P W 41 41 116.4
60 P P W 39 39 155.4
61 B P L 37 -37 118.4
62 B B W 40 38 156.4
63 P B L 38 -38 118.4
64 B P L 41 -41 77.4
65 P B L 44 -44 33.4
66 B P L 47 -47 -13.6
67 B B W 50 47.5 33.9
68 B B W 48 45.6 79.5
69 B B W 46 43.7 123.2
70 P B L 44 -44 79.2
71 B P L 47 -47 32.2
72 P B L 50 -50 -17.8
73 B P L 53 -53 -70.8
74 P B L 56 -56 -126.8
75 P P W 59 59 -67.8
76 B P L 57 -57 -124.8
77 B B W 60 57 -67.8
78 B B W 58 55.1 -12.7
79 P B L 56 -56 -68.7
80 B P L 59 -59 -127.7

It is highly recommended to set a stop win, say at 100 units for this particular case.  This is already reached at hand 15.  If you would continue with the shoe, profits and losses fluctuate.  So, quitting positively is quite important.  As you can see, the shoe ends at -127.7.  And you have many opportunities to quit at around 100 units (hand 30, hand 45, hand 69, etc.).  This is what we mean with money management. 

In case you don't reach +100 units, you would then quit the shoe at its end, as is the case in the following shoe:

Hand Player / Banker Bet on W/L Bet Cash Net
1 P          
2 P P W 20 20 20
3 B P L 18 -18 2
4 P B L 21 -21 -19
5 B P L 24 -24 -43
6 P B L 27 -27 -70
7 P P W 30 30 -40
8 P P W 28 28 -12
9 B P L 26 -26 -38
10 B B W 29 27.55 -10.45
11 B B W 27 25.65 15.2
12 B B W 25 23.75 38.95
13 P B L 23 -23 15.95
14 P P W 26 26 41.95
15 P P W 24 24 65.95
16 B P L 22 -22 43.95
17 P B L 25 -25 18.95
18 B P L 28 -28 -9.05
19 P B L 31 -31 -40.05
20 P P W 34 34 -6.05
21 B P L 32 -32 -38.05
22 B B W 35 33.25 -4.8
23 B B W 33 31.35 26.55
24 B B W 31 29.45 56
25 P B L 29 -29 27
26 B P L 32 -32 -5
27 P B L 35 -35 -40
28 P P W 38 38 -2
29 B P L 36 -36 -38
30 P B L 39 -39 -77
31 P P W 42 42 -35
32 B P L 40 -40 -75
33 B B W 43 40.85 -34.15
34 B B W 41 38.95 4.8
35 P B L 39 -39 -34.2
36 B P L 42 -42 -76.2
37 B B W 45 42.75 -33.45
38 P B L 43 -43 -76.45
39 B P L 46 -46 -122.45
40 B B W 49 46.55 -75.9
41 B B W 47 44.65 -31.25
42 P B L 45 -45 -76.25
43 B P L 48 -48 -124.25
44 P B L 51 -51 -175.25
45 P P W 54 54 -121.25
46 P P W 52 52 -69.25
47 B P L 50 -50 -119.25
48 P B L 53 -53 -172.25
49 P P W 56 56 -116.25
50 B P L 54 -54 -170.25
51 B B W 57 54.15 -116.1
52 P B L 55 -55 -171.1
53 P P W 58 58 -113.1
54 P P W 56 56 -57.1
55 B P L 54 -54 -111.1
56 B B W 57 54.15 -56.95
57 B B W 55 52.25 -4.7
58 P B L 53 -53 -57.7
59 P P W 56 56 -1.7
60 B P L 54 -54 -55.7
61 P B L 57 -57 -112.7
62 B P L 60 -60 -172.7
63 B B W 63 59.85 -112.85
64 B B W 61 57.95 -54.9
65 B B W 59 56.05 1.15
66 P B L 57 -57 -55.85
67 P P W 60 60 4.15
68 B P L 58 -58 -53.85
69 P B L 61 -61 -114.85
70 P P W 64 64 -50.85
71 B P L 62 -62 -112.85
72 B B W 65 61.75 -51.1
73 P B L 63 -63 -114.1
74 P P W 66 66 -48.1
75 B P L 64 -64 -112.1
76 B B W 67 63.65 -48.45
77 B B W 65 61.75 13.3
78 P B L 63 -63 -49.7
79 P P W 66 66 16.3
80 P P W 64 64 80.3

So, you quit at 80.3 units, which is quite decent, too.

Now, we need to clarify the term "unit".  On regular circumstances, one would define a unit to be the minimum bet amount.  For instance, if the minimum bet is $20, that would be your unit value.  This is not necessarily the case in this system.  Starting with 20 units, doesn't mean you should be betting $400 if the minimum bet is $20.  You can set your unit value to be say $5.  Therefore, 20 units would mean $100 bet.  The highest bet in the above chart was 67 units, or $5 X 67 = $335.  If, for instance, the system would require to bet 10 units after having won some initial bets, this would mean a $50 bet, which is OK for a $20 minimum table.  Normally, a $20 minimum table can go up to $1000 maximum and even higher in some casinos.

As stated above, you can experiment with different values of initial bet and different increments and decrements. 

Here is another example, where we set the initial betting value to be 100, the increment on a loss to be 5 and the decrement on a win to be 3:

Hand Player / Banker Bet on W/L Bet Cash Net
1 P          
2 B P L 100 -100 -100
3 P B L 105 -105 -205
4 P P W 110 110 -95
5 P P W 107 107 12
6 P P W 104 104 116
7 P P W 101 101 217
8 P P W 98 98 315
9 P P W 95 95 410
10 B P L 92 -92 318
11 B B W 97 92.15 410.15
12 B B W 94 89.3 499.45
13 P B L 91 -91 408.45
14 B P L 96 -96 312.45
15 P B L 101 -101 211.45
16 P P W 106 106 317.45
17 B P L 103 -103 214.45
18 P B L 108 -108 106.45
19 B P L 113 -113 -6.55
20 P B L 118 -118 -124.55
21 P P W 123 123 -1.55
22 P P W 120 120 118.45
23 P P W 117 117 235.45
24 P P W 114 114 349.45
25 P P W 111 111 460.45
26 P P W 108 108 568.45
27 P P W 105 105 673.45
28 P P W 102 102 775.45
29 P P W 99 99 874.45
30 P P W 96 96 970.45
31 P P W 93 93 1063.5
32 B P L 90 -90 973.45
33 P B L 95 -95 878.45
34 B P L 100 -100 778.45
35 P B L 105 -105 673.45
36 P P W 110 110 783.45
37 B P L 107 -107 676.45
38 B B W 112 106.4 782.85
39 P B L 109 -109 673.85
40 P P W 114 114 787.85
41 B P L 111 -111 676.85
42 P B L 116 -116 560.85
43 P P W 121 121 681.85
44 P P W 118 118 799.85
45 B P L 115 -115 684.85
46 B B W 120 114 798.85
47 P B L 117 -117 681.85
48 B P L 122 -122 559.85
49 B B W 127 120.7 680.5
50 P B L 124 -124 556.5
51 P P W 129 129 685.5
52 B P L 126 -126 559.5
53 P B L 131 -131 428.5
54 P P W 136 136 564.5
55 B P L 133 -133 431.5
56 B B W 138 131.1 562.6
57 B B W 135 128.3 690.85
58 B B W 132 125.4 816.25
59 P B L 129 -129 687.25
60 P P W 134 134 821.25
61 B P L 131 -131 690.25
62 B B W 136 129.2 819.45
63 B B W 133 126.4 945.8
64 P B L 130 -130 815.8
65 B P L 135 -135 680.8
66 P B L 140 -140 540.8
67 B P L 145 -145 395.8
68 P B L 150 -150 245.8
69 P P W 155 155 400.8
70 B P L 152 -152 248.8
71 P B L 157 -157 91.8
72 B P L 162 -162 -70.2
73 P B L 167 -167 -237.2
74 B P L 172 -172 -409.2
75 P B L 177 -177 -586.2
76 P P W 182 182 -404.2
77 P P W 179 179 -225.2
78 P P W 176 176 -49.2
79 B P L 173 -173 -222.2
80 B B W 178 169.1 -53.1

where you will find by experimenting, that the ideal stop win value to be at +500.  This is reached at hand 26.  Much better than ending the shoe at -53.1  In this chart, you would be setting your unit value to be $1, so 100 units would mean a $100 bet.  Your betting amounts fluctuate between $91 and $123 before you reach your +$500 target.  This is indeed much better than a steep Martingale progression.

You will find many shoes reaching the +500 unit target.

Here is another example, where the initial bet is set to 10 units, the decrement on a win to 1 unit and the increment on a loss to 2 units:

Hand Player / Banker Bet on W/L Bet Cash Net
1 P          
2 P P W 10 10 10
3 B P L 9 -9 1
4 B B W 11 10.45 11.45
5 P B L 10 -10 1.45
6 P P W 12 12 13.45
7 P P W 11 11 24.45
8 P P W 10 10 34.45
9 B P L 9 -9 25.45
10 P B L 11 -11 14.45
11 P P W 13 13 27.45
12 P P W 12 12 39.45
13 B P L 11 -11 28.45
14 P B L 13 -13 15.45
15 P P W 15 15 30.45
16 B P L 14 -14 16.45
17 B B W 16 15.2 31.65
18 B B W 15 14.25 45.9
19 B B W 14 13.3 59.2
20 P B L 13 -13 46.2
21 B P L 15 -15 31.2
22 P B L 17 -17 14.2
23 P P W 19 19 33.2
24 B P L 18 -18 15.2
25 P B L 20 -20 -4.8
26 B P L 22 -22 -26.8
27 B B W 24 22.8 -4
28 P B L 23 -23 -27
29 P P W 25 25 -2
30 P P W 24 24 22
31 P P W 23 23 45
32 P P W 22 22 67
33 P P W 21 21 88
34 P P W 20 20 108
35 B P L 19 -19 89
36 P B L 21 -21 68
37 P P W 23 23 91
38 P P W 22 22 113
39 B P L 21 -21 92
40 P B L 23 -23 69
41 B P L 25 -25 44
42 B B W 27 25.65 69.65
43 P B L 26 -26 43.65
44 B P L 28 -28 15.65
45 P B L 30 -30 -14.35
46 P P W 32 32 17.65
47 B P L 31 -31 -13.35
48 P B L 33 -33 -46.35
49 P P W 35 35 -11.35
50 P P W 34 34 22.65
51 P P W 33 33 55.65
52 B P L 32 -32 23.65
53 B B W 34 32.3 55.95
54 B B W 33 31.35 87.3
55 P B L 32 -32 55.3
56 B P L 34 -34 21.3
57 B B W 36 34.2 55.5
58 B B W 35 33.25 88.75
59 P B L 34 -34 54.75
60 B P L 36 -36 18.75
61 B B W 38 36.1 54.85
62 B B W 37 35.15 90
63 B B W 36 34.2 124.2
64 P B L 35 -35 89.2
65 B P L 37 -37 52.2
66 P B L 39 -39 13.2
67 B P L 41 -41 -27.8
68 B B W 43 40.85 13.05
69 B B W 42 39.9 52.95
70 B B W 41 38.95 91.9
71 B B W 40 38 129.9
72 B B W 39 37.05 166.95
73 B B W 38 36.1 203.05
74 P B L 37 -37 166.05
75 P P W 39 39 205.05
76 P P W 38 38 243.05
77 P P W 37 37 280.05
78 B P L 36 -36 244.05
79 P B L 38 -38 206.05
80 B P L 40 -40 166.05

If your table minimum bet is $20, your unit value will be about $3.  So betting 10 units will result in a $30 bet, the minimum of 9 units will be $27 and the maximum of 43 units (hand 68) will mean a $129 bet, which complies to the table's minimum and maximum bet limits.

There are lots of parameters you can experiment with.  It's highly recommended to get the spreadsheet to see for yourselves and set the ideal entries to produce the highest profits within the table limits.  For only $30, it's a worthwhile investment. 

Click here to order.  

Thank you,
Izak Matatya

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Wishing you all the best,
Until next week,
Izak

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