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Thursday, September 13, 2001
How to make 10 units
in Even Money Bets
Hello everyone,
Like all of you, I'm not able to recover from the shock of the event of September 11.
The symbolic, political, financial and moral impact of this act will be upon us for
life. I'm not sure if the goal of whoever did this, was to teach the world
something, but I'm convinced, we have a lot to learn from this. I hope we
won't be looking at things the way we used to. I don't think this should be a matter
of crime and punishment. The learning areas are vast, whether it's mutual
understanding of different cultures and religions, consequences of any kind of war,
extremism of any nature and in either direction (freedom or suppression), the way to
resolve conflicts, etc. If the human mind doesn't shift to a different
paradigm, we will have many more of those tragic acts. But that can take many
generations to go, or it may never happen, if humanity is not ready to learn from the
past, or if we continue to react to things as human nature dictates.
I presently do not have the mind of writing a lengthy newsletter, as you may not have the
mind of reading a lengthy one. I will still leave you with a very simple, yet
effective winning strategy.
While I'm still continuously testing my flat betting system, that should be available to
you within the next two weeks, let me take you back to the very classic, to the Martingale
double up system, that most of us are convinced that using this method brings to disaster.
That is true. If you use Martingale, say over 911 bets continuously, it will
eventually deteriorate your bankroll, despite the fact that you have been accumulating
steady 1 unit profits over some time. If one limits the Martingale to 3 to 5 steps
in favorable situations, though, one can still make profits without severely damaging
his/her bankroll. A 3 step Martingale risks 7 units and a 5 step Martingale
risks 31 units (1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16).
Now, coming to the simple method. If you have a predetermined Red/Black betting
sequence of 5 steps (say R, B, B, R, R) what are the chances that you will be right on all
5 bets. The answer is 50% (or 1/2) multiplied 5 times by itself, or 1 in 32.
That means that if you come to the Roulette table and tell yourself that for the
next 5 bets you will be betting R, B, B, R, R, regardless of what comes up on the table,
there is a 1 to 32 probability that you will be hitting all bets right. Now, this is
a very low probability, isn't it. I would never encourage you to do that.
On the other hand, the opposite is also true, that the probability of hitting all 5 bets
wrong is also 1 in 32. That means, that if you come to the Roulette table and you
bet a predetermined sequence of say R, B, B, R, R, by using a 5 step Martingale betting
method, you have a 31/32 or 97% chance that one of the 5 bets will hit right.
Now, this sounds much more encouraging, doesn't it.
One thing you should note, though, that it is not unlikely to get the exact opposite
pattern: B, R, R, B, B, even if it will happen 3% of the time. Particularly, if you
bet your pattern (R, B, B, R, R) continuously, statistically you should hit the opposite
pattern within the next 32 spins. And this would wipe out all the profit units you
accumulated so far.
Our strategy will be then to change the pattern after every winning sequence. This
way you will be attacking the next 5 bets, with an equal probability of 97% winning
chances from run to run.
Mathematicians may argue with me, that changing patterns doesn't change the probabilities,
but my own experience have shown that every time I set a random betting sequence of 5 bets
and apply it, it hardly fails. And I retire after winning 10 units.
I will now show you an actual run of my last visit to Casino de Montreal, on August 31,
staying at the same table and playing every single bet, using a 5 step Martingale, with
$100 units. The 5 step Martingale consisted of $100, $200, $400, $800, $1600
on the high wager table, single zero wheel. Total risk per run $3100, my bankroll.
Profit per run: $100. Profit expectancy: $1000 for 10 runs. Loss
expectancy: $2200, if I was to lose one of the runs. Loss probability per run: 3%.
Winning chances per run: 97%.
I have predetermined my 10 sequences of 5 bets even before I went to the casino.
And they were:
1) R, R, B, R, B
2) B, B, R, B, R
3) B, B, B, R, R
4) R, R, R, B, B
5) B, R, B, B, R
6) R, B, R, R, B
7) R, R, B, R, B
8) B, B, R, R, R
9) R, R, B, B, B
10) B, B, R, B, B
The outcome of the table (30 continuous spins) was the following:
Sequence number Red/Black
1
B
2
B
3
B
4
0
5
R
6
B
7
B
8
R
9
R
10
B
11
B
12
B
13
R
14
R
15
B
16
R
17
B
18
R
19
B
20
R
21
R
22
B
23
B
24
R
25
B
26
R
27
B
28
B
29
B
30
R
So, let's see how the system performed.
I come to the Roulette table, and regardless of the previous decisions, I look at my first
betting sequence: R, R, B, R, B, I bet $100 on Red. Looking at the table to sequence
1, I lose. I increase my bet to $200 and bet Red again, according to my sequence.
Black comes up in sequence 2 and I lose again. Now, I raise my bet to
$400 and bet on Black. This time Black comes up and I win. My total profit, as
you know is $100. This was my first run.
Run number 2: I cross out my first sequence and lay down my
second sequence: B, B, R, B, R. If you look at the table above, to
sequences 4 to 8, that is to the next 5 bets, where I was left off in the previous run,
you observe: 0, R, B, B, R. Comparing this to my sequence: B, B, R, B, R, it
catches a winning bet at the fourth sequence, giving me another $100 profit. End of
run 2. I'm left off at sequence 7 on the table, my winning bet on Black.
Run number 3: My third sequence is: B, B, B, R, R.
Looking at the table outcome starting from sequence 8, we see: R, B, B, B, B. I
catch a winning bet at the third bet at sequence 10.
Run number 4: My fourth sequence is: R, R, R, B, B, the exact
negative of the previous sequence, for no specific reason. The opposite of a random
sequence is still a random sequence and this is compared to the random outcome of the
table, with a 1 in 32 chance to have them all nonmatching. Looking at sequence 11,
where we were left off, we see the outcome: B, B, R, R, B. Comparing this to my fourth
sequence, we see a match at the third bet with Red at sequence 13.
Run number 5: I start betting my fifth sequence:
B, R, B, B, R against the table's outcome starting at sequence 14, where we were left off: R, B,
R, B, R. A match at the fourth bet. This is my 5th $100 profit. I only
played 17 spins and already profited $500. I could have left at this point, but I
wanted to play all my 10 sequences.
Run number 6: My sequence: R, B, R, R, B. We are
left off at sequence 18 on the table, that shows: R, B, R, R, B A winning bet at
the first one with Red on sequence 18.
Run number 7: My sequence: R, R, B, R, B against the
table's starting from sequence 19: B, R, R, B, B. Second bet in
sequence 20 wins.
Run number 8: My sequence: B, B, R, R, R against the table's,
starting from sequence 21: R, B, B, R, B. The second bet wins at
sequence 22.
Run number 9: My sequence: R, R, R, B, B (another negative of the
previous one) against the table's, starting from sequence 23: B, R, B, R, B.
Second bet wins again at sequence 24.
Last run, number 10: My sequence is: B, B, R, B, B against the
table's, starting from sequence 25: B, R, B, B, B. First bet wins at
sequence 25.
Ten winning runs, a profit of $1000. That's when I took the leave.
I'm not denying the possibility, that one of the patterns that I chose to play, could lose
all 5 bets, but again, the chances are 1 in 32 or 3%.
It's important to chose a different pattern for every run, to have an equal chance from
run to run, as if you consistently use the same pattern, you will eventually get the exact
opposite one. Take a look at my first sequence (R, R, B, R, B) for instance.
If you look at the table, the opposite of this pattern occurs at sequence 22
(B, B, R, B, R). Now the chances that one of my 10 sequences will hit exactly this
spot is even lower than 3%.
You may say that you have chosen a pattern, i.e. B, B, B, B, B and getting 5 Reds is not
unlikely. What I'm claiming is that it would be a tremendous coincidence, with
likelihood of less than 3% of occurrence, that this sequence would show up exactly when
you chose yours. That is why it is crucial to chose a different random pattern
of 5 bets every time you start a new run. If you consistently use the B, B, B, B, B,
you are surely to hit 5 consecutive Reds sooner or later.
This is a method that has worked for me for quite a long time. Even if I get caught
one day and lose 31 units, my profits will highly exceed the 31 units by then. You
can select a lower betting unit than $100 naturally. Try it first with $1 units,
then escalate it to $10, $25 until you develop confidence. Experiment with $1 units,
to see at which stage you will lose all 5 bets of your sequence. It may take you
quite a long time.
Another approach would be to start using $100 units. Once you made your first 5
units with $500 profit, you change tables to $10 minimum and have fun with this method.
If you lose your 31 units, you will be down by $310. Since you were already
up by $500, this loss will still keep you ahead.
Have fun with it. Your thoughts and feedback are always welcome.
Until next week,
Best regards,
Izak
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