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=========================================   Thursday, September 13, 2001

How to make 10 units in Even Money Bets

Hello everyone,

Like all of you, I'm not able to recover from the shock of the event of September 11.   The symbolic, political, financial and moral impact of this act will be upon us for life.   I'm not sure if the goal of whoever did this, was to teach the world something, but I'm convinced, we have a lot to learn from this.   I hope we won't be looking at things the way we used to.  I don't think this should be a matter of crime and punishment.  The learning areas are vast, whether it's mutual understanding of different cultures and religions, consequences of any kind of war, extremism of any nature and in either direction (freedom or suppression), the way to resolve conflicts, etc.   If the human mind doesn't shift to a different paradigm, we will have many more of those tragic acts.   But that can take many generations to go, or it may never happen, if humanity is not ready to learn from the past, or if we continue to react to things as human nature dictates.

I presently do not have the mind of writing a lengthy newsletter, as you may not have the mind of reading a lengthy one.  I will still leave you with a very simple, yet effective winning strategy. 

While I'm still continuously testing my flat betting system, that should be available to you within the next two weeks, let me take you back to the very classic, to the Martingale double up system, that most of us are convinced that using this method brings to disaster.  

That is true.   If you use Martingale, say over 9-11 bets continuously, it will eventually deteriorate your bankroll, despite the fact that you have been accumulating steady 1 unit profits over some time.  If one limits the Martingale to 3 to 5 steps in favorable situations, though, one can still make profits without severely damaging his/her bankroll.   A 3 step Martingale risks 7 units and a 5 step Martingale risks 31 units (1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16).

Now, coming to the simple method.  If you have a pre-determined Red/Black betting sequence of 5 steps (say R, B, B, R, R) what are the chances that you will be right on all 5 bets.   The answer is 50% (or 1/2) multiplied 5 times by itself, or 1 in 32.   That means that if you come to the Roulette table and tell yourself that for the next 5 bets you will be betting R, B, B, R, R, regardless of what comes up on the table, there is a 1 to 32 probability that you will be hitting all bets right.  Now, this is a very low probability, isn't it.  I would never encourage you to do that.

On the other hand, the opposite is also true, that the probability of hitting all 5 bets wrong is also 1 in 32.  That means, that if you come to the Roulette table and you bet a pre-determined sequence of say R, B, B, R, R, by using a 5 step Martingale betting method, you have a 31/32 or 97% chance that one of the 5 bets will hit right.
Now, this sounds much more encouraging, doesn't it. 

One thing you should note, though, that it is not unlikely to get the exact opposite pattern: B, R, R, B, B, even if it will happen 3% of the time.  Particularly, if you bet your pattern (R, B, B, R, R) continuously, statistically you should hit the opposite pattern within the next 32 spins.  And this would wipe out all the profit units you accumulated so far.

Our strategy will be then to change the pattern after every winning sequence.  This way you will be attacking the next 5 bets, with an equal probability of 97% winning chances from run to run.

Mathematicians may argue with me, that changing patterns doesn't change the probabilities, but my own experience have shown that every time I set a random betting sequence of 5 bets and apply it, it hardly fails.  And I retire after winning 10 units.

I will now show you an actual run of my last visit to Casino de Montreal, on August 31, staying at the same table and playing every single bet, using a 5 step Martingale, with $100 units.   The 5 step Martingale consisted of $100, $200, $400, $800, $1600 on the high wager table, single zero wheel.  Total risk per run $3100, my bankroll.    Profit per run: $100.  Profit expectancy: $1000 for 10 runs.  Loss expectancy: $2200, if I was to lose one of the runs.  Loss probability per run: 3%.   Winning chances per run: 97%.

I have pre-determined my 10 sequences of 5 bets even before I went to the casino.
And they were:

1) R, R, B, R, B
2) B, B, R, B, R
3) B, B, B, R, R
4) R, R, R, B, B
5) B, R, B, B, R
6) R, B, R, R, B
7) R, R, B, R, B
8) B, B, R, R, R
9) R, R, B, B, B
10) B, B, R, B, B

The outcome of the table (30 continuous spins) was the following:

Sequence number         Red/Black
          1                                B
          2                                B
          3                                B
          4                                0
          5                                R
          6                                B
          7                                B
          8                                R
          9                                R
        10                                B
        11                                B
        12                                B
        13                                R
        14                                R
        15                                B
        16                                R
        17                                B
        18                                R
        19                                B
        20                                R
        21                                R
        22                                B
        23                                B
        24                                R
        25                                B
        26                                R
        27                                B
        28                                B
        29                                B
        30                                R

So, let's see how the system performed.

I come to the Roulette table, and regardless of the previous decisions, I look at my first betting sequence: R, R, B, R, B, I bet $100 on Red.  Looking at the table to sequence 1, I lose.  I increase my bet to $200 and bet Red again, according to my sequence.    Black comes up in sequence 2 and I lose again.  Now, I raise my bet to $400 and bet on Black.  This time Black comes up and I win.  My total profit, as you know is $100.  This was my first run.

Run number 2:   I cross out my first sequence and lay down my second sequence:  B, B, R, B, R.    If you look at the table above, to sequences 4 to 8, that is to the next 5 bets, where I was left off in the previous run, you observe: 0, R, B, B, R.   Comparing this to my sequence: B, B, R, B, R, it catches a winning bet at the fourth sequence, giving me another $100 profit.  End of run 2.  I'm left off at sequence 7 on the table, my winning bet on Black.

Run number 3:   My third sequence is: B, B, B, R, R.   Looking at the table outcome starting from sequence 8, we see: R, B, B, B, B.   I catch a winning bet at the third bet at sequence 10.

Run number 4: My fourth sequence is:  R, R, R, B, B, the exact negative of the previous sequence, for no specific reason.  The opposite of a random sequence is still a random sequence and this is compared to the random outcome of the table, with a 1 in 32 chance to have them all non-matching.  Looking at sequence 11, where we were left off, we see the outcome: B, B, R, R, B. Comparing this to my fourth sequence, we see a match at the third bet with Red at sequence 13.

Run number 5:   I start betting my fifth sequence:  B, R, B, B, R against the table's outcome starting at sequence 14, where we were left off: R, B, R, B, R.  A match at the fourth bet.  This is my 5th $100 profit.  I only played 17 spins and already profited $500.  I could have left at this point, but I wanted to play all my 10 sequences.

Run number 6:   My sequence:  R, B, R, R, B.  We are left off at sequence 18 on the table, that shows: R, B, R, R, B  A winning bet at the first one with Red on sequence 18.

Run number 7:   My sequence: R, R, B, R, B against the table's starting from sequence 19: B, R, R, B, B.  Second bet in sequence 20 wins.

Run number 8:   My sequence: B, B, R, R, R against the table's, starting from sequence 21:  R, B, B, R, B.  The second bet wins at sequence 22.

Run number 9: My sequence:  R, R, R, B, B (another negative of the previous one) against the table's, starting from sequence 23: B, R, B, R, B.  Second bet wins again at sequence 24.

Last run, number 10:  My sequence is: B, B, R, B, B against the table's, starting from sequence 25: B, R, B, B, B.  First bet wins at sequence 25.   Ten winning runs, a profit of $1000.  That's when I took the leave.

I'm not denying the possibility, that one of the patterns that I chose to play, could lose all 5 bets, but again, the chances are 1 in 32 or 3%. 

It's important to chose a different pattern for every run, to have an equal chance from run to run, as if you consistently use the same pattern, you will eventually get the exact opposite one.  Take a look at my first sequence (R, R, B, R, B) for instance.    If you look at the table, the opposite of this pattern occurs at sequence 22 (B, B, R, B, R).  Now the chances that one of my 10 sequences will hit exactly this spot is even lower than 3%.

You may say that you have chosen a pattern, i.e. B, B, B, B, B and getting 5 Reds is not unlikely.   What I'm claiming is that it would be a tremendous coincidence, with likelihood of less than 3% of occurrence, that this sequence would show up exactly when you chose yours.   That is why it is crucial to chose a different random pattern of 5 bets every time you start a new run.  If you consistently use the B, B, B, B, B, you are surely to hit 5 consecutive Reds sooner or later.

This is a method that has worked for me for quite a long time.  Even if I get caught one day and lose 31 units, my profits will highly exceed the 31 units by then.  You can select a lower betting unit than $100 naturally.  Try it first with $1 units, then escalate it to $10, $25 until you develop confidence.  Experiment with $1 units, to see at which stage you will lose all 5 bets of your sequence.  It may take you quite a long time.

Another approach would be to start using $100 units.  Once you made your first 5 units with $500 profit, you change tables to $10 minimum and have fun with this method.   If you lose your 31 units, you will be down by $310.  Since you were already up by $500, this loss will still keep you ahead.

Have fun with it. Your thoughts and feedback are always welcome.

Until next week,
Best regards,
Izak

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