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================================================    Friday, July 22, 2005
 
A Bet Abstraction Model by TMF

Hello everyone,

I came across an interesting post by TMF, while reading in the discussion forum, and I'd like to share it with you.

"All even money game systems have two main bet components, which can be abstractly modeled with the following diagram. A player plays each and every spin, roll, or draw etc. The solid line with the arrow at the end, indicates that every bet is being placed, as in figure 1 below.   In case a player does not play each and every spin, the dotted lines indicate the fictive plays, as in figure 2.  This diagram is named as a bet abstraction.

Figure 1: Playing each and every spin:

Bet selection: ------------------------------------------------------------------->

Bet progression: --------------------------------------------------------------->


Figure 2: Implementing enter and exit rules.

Bet selection: ----------............------------------.............------------------>

Bet progression: ----------............------------------.............------------------>
 

When a player does not play every spin, then he constrains, filters or restricts himself to play either on the bet selection component and/or bet progression component. With the help of above diagram, you can visualize how to filter, restrict and constraint not only on the  bet selection component but also on bet progression component.

Is there a relationship between the bet selection and progression? In our case, it is not really so important to model this relationship, since it is up to you to identify the significance of the  bet selection.  On the other hand, the bet progression should have somehow a reference on a certain bet selection, otherwise how would you place your bets?  Often the bet progression relates to past result and uses it to progress.

The above bet abstraction serves the following purposes:
- You use it as a tool to analyze a method
- You use it as a tool for mental simulation to design a method of your own.
- You use it as a tool for preparing and writing a well structured program for testing.
- etc.

The bet selection is a process to select a bet to be placed for the next bet. No matter how powerful the bet selection might be, no one will be sure or deterministic that next decision will be P and not B or not Tie, or B and not P or not Tie, or Tie and not P and not B (in Baccarat).  An even money game is a non-deterministic game.

OPT has outlined the bet selection in more details on the past post. You can read it and please refer to this link:  http://letstalkwinning.vegasforums.com/forum/read.php?f=1&i=20286&t=20107

The bet progression determines the units progressed and placed in order to recover past losses and/or to gain some units. There are many progressions (often they are referred to as MM=money management) and you find the classic ones on the Internet. Those are the Martingale, Oscar’s grind, D’Alembert, Labouchere etc.

There are two types of progressions: positive (up as you win) and negative (up as you lose) progressions. And further it can be classified as a progression which needs 1 win, 2 wins, 3 wins or etc.  or a certain percentage of wins compared to losses to resolve the losses. For example: Martingale needs only one win to recover the past losses.

Let me show you ax example.

You play each and every shoe, spin, or roll.

Bet selection: FTL (Follow The Last decision)
Bet progression: Oscar’s grind.  (You can read about Oscar's Grind at the LTW newsletter of June 6, 2002)

You filter the bet selection and progression.

Gap allowances = 1 (Vegaskid’s gambling concept)
Enter rule on bet selection = continue and place bet after a win
Exit rule on bet selection = stop betting after two losses in a row

Set in Motion (Vegaskid’s gambling concept)
Enter rule on bet progression = continue and progress with units as before after a win
Exit rule on bet progression = stop to progress after 2 losses in a row and progress fictively as before.

With the above bet abstraction I can further play around in mind or mentally simulate what other factors can be still filtered, restricted or constrained. You can even put win and loss plateaus, if you wish. Basically, restrictions, filtration and constraints are rules and only rules that filter, restrict or constraint the bet selection and progression.

Whether a player plays each and every spin or not, it will not gain any advantage, odds or edge. It is easy to prove by example.  For the sake of simplicity, let me give you the following W and L sequences with flat betting.

Play each and every spin.

W W W W 1 1 1 1 4
W W W L 1 1 1 -1 2
W W L W 1 1 -1 1 2
W W L L 1 1 -1 -1 0
W L W W 1 -1 1 1 2
W L W L 1 -1 1 -1 0
W L L W 1 -1 -1 1 0
W L L L 1 -1 -1 -1 -2
L W W W -1 1 1 1 2
L W W L -1 1 1 -1 0
L W L W -1 1 -1 1 0
L W L L -1 1 -1 -1 -2
L L W W -1 -1 1 1 0
L L W L -1 -1 1 -1 -2
L L L W -1 -1 -1 1 -2
L L L L -1 -1 -1 -1 -4
Total= 0

After a loss, stop and continue after a win.

W W W W 1 1 1 1 4
W W W L 1 1 1 -1 2
W W L W 1 1 -1 1
W W L L 1 1 -1 1
W L W W 1 -1 1 1
W L W L 1 -1 -1 -1
W L L W 1 -1 0
W L L L 1 -1 0
L W W W -1 1 1 1
L W W L -1 1 -1 -1
L W L W -1 -1 -2
L W L L -1 -1 -2
L L W W -1 1 0
L L W L -1 -1 -2
L L L W -1 -1
L L L L -1 -1
Total= 0

The above theoretical result shows that there is no difference whether you play each and every spin or not. That is not always the case, if luck is with you, and the filtration really reduces the number of losses, so as a result it might be effective in regards to the use of the bankroll.

I would like to demonstrate a sample. A player progresses with Labouchere. When he/she encounters 2 losses in a row, then he/she stops and continues to play when a win hits. This sample uses Vegaskid’s concepts: gap allowance = 1 and Set in Motion.

Labouchere scheme for 5 units: 1-1-1-1-1

Spins W/L Scheme Bet/No Bet Bet units Win/Losses Balance

1-1-1-1-1
1 W 1-1-1 Bet 2 units 2 2
2 L 1-1-1-2 Bet 3 units -3 -1
3 W 1-1 Bet 3 units 3 2
4 L 1-1-2 Bet 2 units -2 0
5 L 1-1-2-3 Bet 3 units -3 -3
6 L 1-1-2-3-4 No-bet - 0 -3
7 L 1-1-2-3-4-5 No-bet - 0 -3
8 L 1-1-2-3-4-5-6 No-bet - 0 -3
9 W 1-2-3-4-5 No-bet - 0 -3
10 L 1-2-3-4-5-6 Bet 6 units -6 -9
11 W 2-3-4-5 Bet 7 units 7 -2
12 W 3-4 Bet 7 units 7 5
13 W - Bet 7 units 7 12

We can stop playing after reaching 5 units balance at spin 12, if you want to.

Summary

Think on the bet selection what you want to do with it. You want to play each and every spin or filter the bet selection at your choice.

Think on the bet progression as per what you want to do with it. You want to play each and every spin or filter the bet progression at your choice.

You can write your own enter and exit rules for the bet selection. Common rules use the numbers of wins and losses or any statistic measures such as wins and losses ratio, standard deviation etc. Gap allowances/winning runs, distance and balance are example of Vegaskid’s concepts.

You can write your own enter and exit rules for the bet progression. Common rules use the numbers of wins and losses and how many units you want to progress: as before, or halving, jump, steal etc. (found in TurnAround system), or Set in Motion, Compound Martingale (Vegaskid’s concepts) etc.

I hope that this writing will give you insight to create your own method.

Regards,
TMF"

Thanking TMF for his great contribution.

Wishing you all the best,
Izak

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