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Friday, July 22, 2005
A Bet Abstraction Model by TMF
I came across an interesting post by TMF,
while reading in the
discussion forum, and I'd like to share it with you.
"All even money game systems have two main bet components, which can be
abstractly modeled with the following diagram. A player plays each and every
spin, roll, or draw etc. The solid line with the arrow at the end, indicates
that every bet is being placed, as in figure 1 below. In case a
player does not play each and every spin, the dotted lines indicate the
fictive plays, as in figure 2. This diagram is named as a bet
Figure 1: Playing each and every spin:
Figure 2: Implementing enter and exit rules.
When a player does not play every spin, then he constrains, filters or
restricts himself to play either on the bet selection component and/or bet
progression component. With the help of above diagram, you can visualize how
to filter, restrict and constraint not only on the bet selection
component but also on bet progression component.
Is there a relationship between the bet selection and progression? In our
case, it is not really so important to model this relationship, since it is
up to you to identify the significance of the bet selection. On
the other hand, the bet progression should have somehow a reference on a
certain bet selection, otherwise how would you place your bets? Often
the bet progression relates to past result and uses it to progress.
The above bet abstraction serves the following purposes:
- You use it as a tool to analyze a method
- You use it as a tool for mental simulation to design a method of your own.
- You use it as a tool for preparing and writing a well structured program
The bet selection is a process to select a bet to be placed for the next
bet. No matter how powerful the bet selection might be, no one will be sure
or deterministic that next decision will be P and not B or not Tie, or B and
not P or not Tie, or Tie and not P and not B (in Baccarat). An even
money game is a non-deterministic game.
OPT has outlined the bet selection in more details on the past post. You can
read it and please refer to this link:
The bet progression determines the units progressed and placed in order to
recover past losses and/or to gain some units. There are many progressions
(often they are referred to as MM=money management) and you find the classic
ones on the Internet. Those are the Martingale, Oscar’s grind, D’Alembert,
There are two types of progressions: positive (up as you win) and negative
(up as you lose) progressions. And further it can be classified as a
progression which needs 1 win, 2 wins, 3 wins or etc. or a certain
percentage of wins compared to losses to resolve the losses. For example:
Martingale needs only one win to recover the past losses.
Let me show you ax example.
You play each and every shoe, spin, or roll.
Bet selection: FTL (Follow The Last decision)
Bet progression: Oscar’s grind. (You can read about Oscar's Grind at
the LTW newsletter of
You filter the bet selection and progression.
Gap allowances = 1 (Vegaskid’s gambling
Enter rule on bet selection = continue and place bet after a win
Exit rule on bet selection = stop betting after two losses in a row
Set in Motion (Vegaskid’s gambling concept)
Enter rule on bet progression = continue and progress with units as before
after a win
Exit rule on bet progression = stop to progress after 2 losses in a row and
progress fictively as before.
With the above bet abstraction I can further play around in mind or mentally
simulate what other factors can be still filtered, restricted or
constrained. You can even put win and loss plateaus, if you wish. Basically,
restrictions, filtration and constraints are rules and only rules that
filter, restrict or constraint the bet selection and progression.
Whether a player plays each and every spin or not, it will not gain any
advantage, odds or edge. It is easy to prove by example. For the sake
of simplicity, let me give you the following W and L sequences with flat
Play each and every spin.
W W W W 1 1 1 1 4
W W W L 1 1 1 -1 2
W W L W 1 1 -1 1 2
W W L L 1 1 -1 -1 0
W L W W 1 -1 1 1 2
W L W L 1 -1 1 -1 0
W L L W 1 -1 -1 1 0
W L L L 1 -1 -1 -1 -2
L W W W -1 1 1 1 2
L W W L -1 1 1 -1 0
L W L W -1 1 -1 1 0
L W L L -1 1 -1 -1 -2
L L W W -1 -1 1 1 0
L L W L -1 -1 1 -1 -2
L L L W -1 -1 -1 1 -2
L L L L -1 -1 -1 -1 -4
After a loss, stop and continue after a win.
W W W W 1 1 1 1 4
W W W L 1 1 1 -1 2
W W L W 1 1 -1 1
W W L L 1 1 -1 1
W L W W 1 -1 1 1
W L W L 1 -1 -1 -1
W L L W 1 -1 0
W L L L 1 -1 0
L W W W -1 1 1 1
L W W L -1 1 -1 -1
L W L W -1 -1 -2
L W L L -1 -1 -2
L L W W -1 1 0
L L W L -1 -1 -2
L L L W -1 -1
L L L L -1 -1
The above theoretical result shows that there is no difference whether you
play each and every spin or not. That is not always the case, if luck is
with you, and the filtration really reduces the number of losses, so as a
result it might be effective in regards to the use of the bankroll.
I would like to demonstrate a sample. A player progresses with Labouchere.
When he/she encounters 2 losses in a row, then he/she stops and continues to
play when a win hits. This sample uses Vegaskid’s concepts: gap allowance =
1 and Set in Motion.
Labouchere scheme for 5 units: 1-1-1-1-1
Spins W/L Scheme Bet/No Bet Bet units Win/Losses Balance
1 W 1-1-1 Bet 2 units 2 2
2 L 1-1-1-2 Bet 3 units -3 -1
3 W 1-1 Bet 3 units 3 2
4 L 1-1-2 Bet 2 units -2 0
5 L 1-1-2-3 Bet 3 units -3 -3
6 L 1-1-2-3-4 No-bet - 0 -3
7 L 1-1-2-3-4-5 No-bet - 0 -3
8 L 1-1-2-3-4-5-6 No-bet - 0 -3
9 W 1-2-3-4-5 No-bet - 0 -3
10 L 1-2-3-4-5-6 Bet 6 units -6 -9
11 W 2-3-4-5 Bet 7 units 7 -2
12 W 3-4 Bet 7 units 7 5
13 W - Bet 7 units 7 12
We can stop playing after reaching 5 units balance at spin 12, if you want
Think on the bet selection what you want to do with it. You want to
play each and every spin or filter the bet selection at your choice.
Think on the bet progression as per what you want to do with it. You want to
play each and every spin or filter the bet progression at your choice.
You can write your own enter and exit rules for the bet selection. Common
rules use the numbers of wins and losses or any statistic measures such as
wins and losses ratio, standard deviation etc. Gap allowances/winning runs,
distance and balance are example of Vegaskid’s concepts.
You can write your own enter and exit rules for the bet progression. Common
rules use the numbers of wins and losses and how many units you want to
progress: as before, or halving, jump, steal etc. (found in TurnAround
system), or Set in Motion, Compound Martingale (Vegaskid’s concepts) etc.
I hope that this writing will give you insight to create your own method.
Thanking TMF for his great contribution.
Wishing you all the
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