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Thursday, December 2, 2004
There were a few interesting discussions on some parlay strategies for even bets on the discussion forum this week and I'd like to analyze some of them with you. A parlay is a bet that you win and let ride once again on the table in order to multiply the profit it made. For instance, if you were betting a 3 unit bet and it won, you get back 6 units. If you let the 6 unit ride and it wins again, you get back 12 units on a 3 unit initial investment profiting 9 units on that bet. This is called parlaying the 3 unit bet. The profit you make is 3 times your bet value for that particular parlay bet.
You can also keep the first 3 unit profit and bet the 3 unit once again. This would be betting the same amount twice as opposed to parlay betting. We will see a strategy with this mode as well.
One suggestion made by Perry B, was to use a 1-1-1-2-2-3-4-5-7 progression and parlaying the won bet, at whichever stage it happens. So this is 9 chances to make a parlay, risking only 26 units for this sequence. Supposing you lose the 1-1-1-2-2 bets, you are down by 7 units. Then you win the 3 unit bet and you parlay it. If you win again, you profit 9 units for this parlay as illustrated above and you become ahead by 2 units at this stage of the progression. Then, of course, you start over at the beginning of the progression.
If you lose the parlayed bet, you have lost only the 3 unit bet and you continue within the progression.
If, let's say, you have lost the 1-1-1-2-2-3-4 bets. You are down by 14 units. Parlaying and winning the next bet of 5 units will profit you 15 units (4X5 minus your initial bet, or 20-5=15), thus brining you ahead again by 1 unit.
What does this mean? You have 9 chances to win a bet consecutively in order to come up ahead. That means that you will need to have a double win within your next 9 bets in order to be ahead. If not you are down by 26 units and you accept this loss and start over again. The question is are the multiple won series sufficient enough to overcome the occasional 26 unit losses. If they were, then you would have a long run winning system. I will leave the question open for analysis, but will illustrate a small simulation of how this method could produce some profits, as well as drain your bankroll down should a double win not occur for more than 9 bets for a few times. The best alternative is to set a win target of say +5 units and quit the session.
Let's take 100 roulette spins from my RTA (Roulette Trend Analyzer) spreadsheet and observe all even bet areas.
You could indeed apply this strategy to all even bets simultaneously and quit once you reach your win target.
The above table shows bets being made on Red, Black, Odd, Even, High and Low areas of roulette.
An X is shown when a particular bet is won for that even chance area. So we are looking for 2 successive X's to determine that we have won the series. A number is shown to reflect the number of consecutive loses on a particular bet. A 1 2 3 4 X X, for instance, means that we have lost the bet 4 times and won the 5th bet, as well as its parlay.
If we were betting on Red, for instance, we encounter the following events up front:
1 X 1 2 3 X 1 X X. This means that we lose our first bet, win the second, but lose the parlay, then lose 2 more bets, win the following one, but lose the parlay, then win the bet and the parlay ending the series. What's important to know that we have won the parlay before the 9 chances ended. So a loss that follows a win, illustrated by an X 1, is only one of the lost 9 chances. In the above sequence, we win the parlay at the 6th instance, and thus come up with a profit.
Continuing to bet on red, we see 1 2 3 X X, meaning 3 losses followed by a won parlay, also ending the series with a win.
Then an X 1 X X occurs, meaning that the first bet is won, but the parlay is lost. Then at the second chance the bet and the parlayed bet is won ending the 3rd series with a win as well.
Then we see an X 1 X 1 2 X X. Obviously, this series is won, too, since we achieved it before 9 chances. This is the 4th won series.
The last and 5th series is won easily with a 1 X X. According to our win target, this is when we should end our session.
If you look at the series following that, we do see a 26 unit loss, as 9 chances were not sufficient to complete the run.
If you were betting Black only, I see lots of won series, as well as one losing session, except that the losing session occurs towards the front after having won only 2 series.
Betting on even, again, there are lots of won series and one lost series, which this time occurs towards the end of the 100 spins. I can count about 13 won series before that happens.
Only 1 losing session again for betting on odd only among many winning ones.
Betting high, I see no losing sessions and 19 won sessions (count the number of XX's).
Betting low, I see 2 losing sessions among some won series.
On the long run, obviously, this strategy may not win too much. That's why it is important to set the win and loss targets in order to apply it properly.
Another suggestion strategy was a progression of the nature 1-1-2-3-4-6-9. This give you 7 chances to win the same bet twice, risking only 26 units. So this time the bet, which is won, is placed again, after having removed the first won bet. So, if you have lost say the 1-1-2-3-4 bets, you are down by 11 units. If you bet 6 units and win it twice, you have won 12 units on that bet and 1 unit overall.
The major difference between this type of bet and the above mentioned parlay is that during the parlay, you lose the bet amount if you lose the parlayed bet. In this mode, you lose it only at the second bet, but keep the first won bet. This only evens out the last won bet. At this stage, if you lost the second bet, you can bet the same amount over again, without going to the next step in your progression.
A double win is still necessary in order to come up ahead and the above analysis would still apply.
Quoting from Perry B's wise statement:
"Control your losses, and the wins will take care of themselves."
Thanking Perry B for his contribution of the above strategies.
RTA - the Roulette Trend Analyzer, analyzes not only even bets, but all other types of bets in Roulette. It's a tremendous help to decide how and when you want to place your bets depending on what goes on on the table.
Wishing you all the best,
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