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ends June 30, 2001

It's now $50 bonus every month!

=========================================   Thursday, September 20, 2001

Q & A on How to Make 10 Units in Even Money Bets

Hello everyone,
 
Thanks to those of you who gave me your feedback and comments on the simple strategy shown last week.  This week I would like to share your feedback with all of you in a form of a Q & A.
 
Q: Hi Izak, love your web site and service you are educating your fellow gambers with. I do have a question regarding your even money Martingale system from the Sept. 13 newsletter. All your calculations were they on a single zero or double zero wheel? I live in New Jersey and all the single zero wheels are in the "high roller salons". I am not as proficient in math as you are, so, what is the win percentage with a double zero wheel? Still 97% and 3% ratios?? Wouldn't it have to be a lower win ratio and higher loss ratio??
 
A: Indeed with a double zero, hitting one right bet out of 5 is no longer 31 out of 32.  Since the probability of hitting one zero is 2 out of 38 or 5.26%, hitting one right bet out of 5 becomes 97% less 5.26% or 91.74%, which is still not so bad.
 
We still need to consider the chances of hitting one zero on a single wheel being half the probablity of 5.26% or 2.7% (1 out of 37) and reduce this from 97% to get 94.3%. 

In reality, we should compare 91.74% to 94.3%, for double and single zero wheels respectively, the difference being not so great.

There are no zero wheels, i.e. on the CCC on-line casino at:  http://www.ccc-casino.com:8080/casinoskin/servlet/casinoskin/pid/1002/lid/2
where the 97% - 3% win/loss ratio is fully valid.
 
Q: Hi.  The 10 unit strategy you included in the latest newsletter sounds
promising.  Have you ever tried it online? 
I realize you would have to use smaller bets because of limits.
 
A: I have tried it on-line, too.  It works equally well.
By the way, this is an excellent method to find out if the casino is honest.
Imagine getting from the wheel patterns that are the exact opposite of
yours.  Many of those occurrances are no longer coincidences.
 
Q: Hi Izak,
I like the concept with single zero roulette and I suppose if was in Europe where they have the en prison rule, the single zero's effect would be also muted.

Have you ever thought of playing the method using all the even chances?
i.e.,  red/black, odd/even 1-18/19-36...using the same 10 different 5 bet
sequences, just  substituting the other chances In this way you could get to your 10 units much  quicker...

What do you think?
 
A: Definitely, playing on all 3 even money bet areas, you get your 10 units 3 times
faster.
You will just need to triple your bankroll to 96 units, in case you win your
bets towards the 5th bet, rather than up front.
 
Q:  Izak,
 I just tried your system on the USA Casino software for "free". I played 9
 sets of 10. I lost 31 units 5 times. 3 times in one set.
 I used the exact same B-R combos in your email below.  Guess I'll stick to
 my old system.

A: Those must have been very educated guesses.  Try to come up with your own random sequences, you may have more success.
Since those Roulette patterns are imbedded in my head, the fact that you
lost 5 times means that the exact opposite pattern occurred 5 times within 9
sets.  Amazing!

Remember, for any strategy that drastically doesn't work well, the opposite
works very well.

Q: I am pretty new at roulette, when you hit a zero do you up the bet and
follow with the same color you were on or skip to next color? Where can I
practice on the web that will let me go the distance with Martingale. Will
Vegas let you play that much? Please let me know. Thank You.

A: When you hit a zero, you consider it as a losing bet within the 5-bet
sequence.  Thus your next bet follows the double-up method.
Since, you are trying to match the table's outcome with 1 by 1 correspondence, you would bet the next one in the sequence.
VegasUSA at: http://www.vegasusa.com:8080/english/?aap85 will allow you to
bet as low as $1.  So, it's a good place to try the system.
 
Q: Hello Izak,

Would your method be as effective at baccarat?
 
A: This method would be effective only for Player bets, since you are aiming to
gain 1 unit.   If you would hit a winning bet playing Banker, your 5% commission, would reduce your profit and you would end up in a loss.

So, the only time I would apply it is to go for 5 Player bets at any random
time, with the hope of hitting one Player out of 5 decisions.  A good time
to attack this approach would be after the appearance of a few consecutive
Banker decisions.
 
Q: I like your site and look forward to what's next.
However I think we both know that the mathematical probability of any
sequence appearing, whether it be five red, five black or a random one,
is the same.
 
A: I don't deny that.  And the probability of hitting one out of 5 is 1 in 32.
The probability of losing 31 units is also 1 in 32.
That means you should gain 1 unit in 32 spins on the long run, particularly
on a no-zero table.
 
Q: Read your latest even bet system and like it very much, however I fail to understand why you did not stick to the original selections you first picked and altered  No 5 6 7&9 selections. I was understanding the system until this happened.

A: I had 10 pre-selected sequences and I used them one after another.
The reason I changed them is to have a new sequence every time, to come up to the table with an equal chance to all other runs.

Q: Hi Izak,
At first, I thought that your idea is not so bad, but I tried it with my authentic permanencies and after a first wonderful day (82 spins= +39 pcs) I lost in the second day (62 spins -54 bets) and the third day too (80  spins= -25 bets). Than I didn't continue more, but I believe that, without a  bit of  luck, maximum the system balances. In fact we win 1(3%) and lose 31 (97%), also if our percentage to win is 97 and our possibility to lose is 3.
 
A: Do you mean that you have set yourself a set of 10 random 5 bet sequences
and when you applied them to your permanencies, some of them came out to be
the exact opposite of your sequences?  You must be really lucky to have hit
such bets, or you have made too educated guesses.  Try to come up with more
random sequences, as there are many permutations of Reds and Blacks within 5
bets.  As mentioned in the newsletter, try to avoid too many similar
sequences, such as 5 Reds or 5 Blacks.  I would use a combination of either
3 Reds or Blacks versus 2 Reds or Blacks.  This way any streak of Red or
Black will catch a winning bet, within the 5.
 
Q:  At first this looks like a promising system.
 However, using basic mathematics gives a much duller image: winning 97% of
 the time 1 unit equals 97 units in 100 turns of the wheel.  Losing 3 times gives 3x31=93 units. So your profit becomes 97-93=4 meager units for a lot of work.
 
A: Your math is correct.  On the long run, winning 4 units in 100 spins is
still positive.  If your unit is $100, this means $400 in 2 hours of 100
spins, if one spin takes about half a minute.  There are not many Roulette
systems, that can give you a positive trend over the long run, because of
the house advantage.  A good engineer makes $200 a day.  This system
provides $200 an hour, if one would dare to use $100 units.
 
Q: Hi again.  I was curious, since you say you've tried it online, how you have done?  I just tried it and it's working so far, but I know how the online casinos go....strategies seem to stop working  just like that.

Because of limit restrictions I started with $5 units.  When I won 10 units I'd log off then come back and do it again with $4 units.  Then again,  regressing each time until I was down to using $1 units.  My first losing run came on the 46th run.   I started over at $3 units and regressed again after each 10 unit win.  I'm up to 30 winning runs again so far and $174 profit.

Like I said, whenever I start using a new & promising strategy online it  works for a while but then crashes and never recovers.  I was just curious if you've been able to have sustained success with this strategy. 

Thanks for your time.

A: This has been my exact approach.  Hit high first.  Then regress and stay
ahead even if you hit a losing run.
This is the best strategy against on-line casinos before they figure out
what's going on.
 
Q: One last follow up.  I've continued playing this strategy online today and
I've won 197 runs and only lost 2.  Total profits:  $456.  I think I'll stop
for now...don't want to spoil a good day.  I don't know how long this will
work but it's sure working today.  Thanks again.
 
A: Yes, to quit when you are ahead that much is the right thing to do.

And a comment from Don M:

Your simple modified Martingale system is interesting....but there may be another way of looking at it.....true, you are still facing the 2.7% house vig on each  bet -  nothing can defeat that due to the fact that the casino does not pay you as much as the "fair" odds would dictate. However, in my  opinion, most of us are not beaten so much by the juice as we are by standard deviation and variance. I think that your little system alters the variance because you are not staying with the same bet pattern long enough to allow variance to have its effect. By changing your pattern after five bets, and MAYBE by moving from R&B to Hi and Lo, you are, in effect, broken field running with each set of bets, at least sidestepping the effect long enough to cop five or ten units. I think this is a rather brilliant move on your part.

That's all for this week.   I hope to be able to release the flat betting system on even money bets next week.

Until then,
Best regards,
Izak

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