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================================================    Thursday, October 7, 2004
 
Pass-12-Pass, a Winning Craps Strategy

Hello everyone,

Going through some of the posts in my forum, I came across an interesting post by Christian.  He talks about a winning craps strategy offered for free by Jim the System Man, that I would like to share with you.  It's called Pass-12-Pass, which stands for twelve after a Pass, then bet a Pass.

"This is another one of those playing methods that has no reason to be successful but it seems to be a winning method, so far. I have played it a few times in real casinos and also tested it using past records... it just seems to work for no apparent reason in either logic or mathematics. I'll tell you more in a few paragraphs, after I describe the playing method.

There is really nothing complicated about it. We wait until we see a Bar-12 which immediately follows a pass. This pass may be either a natural or by making the point. The Bar-12 will not be on the new shooter’s first roll and will not be after don't pass, craps or anything other than a pass (however, it may be after more than one consecutive pass). When we see this Bar-12 we will make only one flat bet that the next pass line decision will be a natural or a pass. That's the entire playing method. We use flat bets with no progression and no other bets besides pass bets on the pass line.  There are no odds bets, no place bets, and absolutely no other bets.

This playing method requires a great deal of waiting and watching with very little actual betting. The good news is that if we keep getting the very high percentage of winning bets which we are now getting, we would be able to use high denomination bets and thereby make a reasonable amount of dollar winnings although there are not very many bets. In the 300 hour book which has over 10,000 pass line decisions, this method only makes 132 bets, however 81 of them win and only 61 lose for a net win of 20 units with 132 bets. This means that I won almost 2/3 of my bets. Actually, I won the first three bets and was never again behind. Therefore, I could have played this with only one chip in my bankroll, and the rest of the time I would be using my winnings.

In the first 50 pages I won 15 and lost 7. Then, in the second 50 pages I won 17 and lost 10. Using the third 50 pages I won 13 and lost 15 (which is the only losing session). During the 4th 50 pages I won 18 and lost 9.  And, in the final 29 pages I won 8 and lost 4 units.

I also looked over my own records of my own trips to various casinos. Unfortunately, much of the time I did not record the exact decisions, and some of the time when I did record them, I did not record the Bar-12's, but merely called them "don't pass." So, with the limited results which I do have, I would have won 12 units over the 5 year or so period for which I have limited records. With these, I also would have won the first bet and would never have been behind, so I could have played with one chip of any denomination in my total starting bankroll. The results are very interesting to me. I would never have lost a single bet in the several trips that I have taken to Laughlin, Nevada! Here are my total results at 11 different casinos in various cities... win win lose lose win win win lose win win win win win win win win win win lose. This is 15 wins and 4 losses for a net win of 11 units in 11 different casinos. I was in some of the casinos for more than one session. If I had used $100 bets I would win $100 per session. Even if a session were to last as much as two hours it would still come to $50 per hour.

The 72 hour book has about 200 more don't pass than pass, and even with that disadvantage it comes out exactly even using these records. With that many more don't pass decisions I would expect a substantial loss if things were only random.

With everything that I have seen, this method could very easily be played with a 10 unit bankroll (or a $1,000 bankroll using $100 bets). Surely, it is not a fun strategy because we would rarely be making bets. We cannot stand at the table with chips all over the place. We cannot ask for comps because we will make only occasional bets... but the question is: Do we want to play or do we want to win?

Considering these very positive results I could be very tempted to invest $200 in a test. There are several ways that it could be done. One way would be that I could bet $100 the first time and if it wins keep using $100 units. If the first bet loses, then I could drop down to $50 in order to build it up to $100 and then go to $100 units... if that loses, then use the two remaining $25 units to try to build it up to the $100 units. If I lose the first 4 bets, then I am out $200, but it should take about 8 hours of watching time for it to happen, which would probably be a whole two day trip. If I start out winning, then I could easily win a few hundred dollars on the trip.

Another way to play would be to only use $100 in my bankroll. I could merely use $20 or $25 units and keep playing that way. There are many ways to do this... I could use a $100 bankroll and start with one $50 bet, then if it loses use the remaining $50 by making as many as two $25 bets with the objective of playing until I have about $200 and then going back to $50 bets, and perhaps working my way up to $100 bets if I keep winning. It is all a matter of the individual bettor's tolerance at the particular time.  It does not take a large risk and could end up being "The Winning Method."
If this method continues to work out as it has so far, it would not be that hard to go up to $500 or $1000 units.

We could fill in the waiting time by making flat bets on the pass line using the table minimum bet. If we want it to look as if we are doing something, we could bet that the decision before the last one will repeat, then change to the pass line when we are rolling the dice. We also might consider taking single odds with a pass line bet as a holding strategy while waiting for our “trigger” of a pass-12-pass. This would require a slightly higher bankroll. The cost of a $5 pass line bet while waiting would be approximately $2.47 per hour. There are about 35 pass line decisions in an hour. A bet of $5 made 35 times is a total of $175. The house advantage on a pass line bet is 1.41%. Therefore, since 1.41% of $175 is $2.47, this would be the approximate hourly cost of playing this waiting strategy while waiting for the trigger in order to make the larger bet. Our profit on the bet after the trigger would have to be enough to compensate for that loss while waiting. Since the trigger averages about once every two hours, we must win at least $5 on each bet. Five dollars is 20% of $25, so if we win 20% on our bets, the bets must all be over $25 in order to be winning. This is the price that we must pay for our waiting strategy. We can bet any amount if we merely watch and do not make any bets while waiting for our trigger of a Bar-12 following a pass line winning decision."

Thanking Jim for his strategy and Christian for posting it.  Jim has an interesting site.  You can visit it by clicking: http://members.aol.com/jimferr/Alternate.html.

As you can see in the above strategy, that even if you can win 1 unit at the end of your gambling session, this is much more valuable than losing half or entire your bankroll, particularly if your betting unit is high.

Saravan from PureWinners continues to do well in his sports betting consulting service and by providing you good selections week after week.  His big bettors made another $2,074.91 this week.  I was able to follow up and use the picks the same way.  Make sure to take advantage and join by following the link:  http://www.purewinners.com/bigbettorsLTW.html

Wishing you all the best,
Until next week,
Izak

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