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Thursday, October 16, 2003
I'm back from a long vacation in Andalucia. We stayed at a lovely village called Nerja at Costa del Sol on the Mediterranean and visited Granada, Sevilla, Cordoba, Malaga and Marbella in Southern Spain. It was pure vacation, so no work, thus no gambling (gambling is work for me). The only time I played a few hands was at the Frankfurt Airport Casino before my connecting flight, using KISS + Superior Roulette combined strategy at $50 units. Making 14 units in 2 hours covered the duty free expenses.
Back to weekly newsletters. Joe, a good Let's Talk Winning customer, with the nickname Eternity, has gathered a few email addresses from the discussion forum and has emailed them his gambling ideas in the form of newsletters. Joe has granted me his permission to publish some of his ideas here, so the remaining Let's Talk Winning customers can benefit from them, too.
Well, here they are with Joe introducing himself:
"How I got started and a little about myself:
I started up gambling as a hobby about
5 years ago after my first visit to Las Vegas. The lights the sounds and
everything just kind of grabbed me. Ever since then, I just wanted to see
if I could develop a system or method of play that could be used for fun
while I ever visited the bright light city again. I currently am attending
college and enjoy sports. During the time I am free, I like to read up on
stocks and invest in the stock market.
The systems below are ones I made during my first 1 ½ years or so while studying gambling as a hobby. Below is a quick outline of each one and after that is the full system.
Outline of concepts:
System 1 – Progressions
System 2 – Repeats
System 3 – Sector Play
System 4 – Cycling
SYSTEM 1 – DESCRIPTION OF CONCEPT
The first system and variations deal with Progressions. As you know, there are different types of progressions such as steep progressions [progressions where you increase your bet size extremely quickly], mild progressions [progressions where you increase your bet size but not to the level where you must get a profit if a hit occurs], and conservative progressions [progressions where you aim to win just enough to recoup some losses while needing just a few less hits to come out in the positive zone – my all time favorite way to play nowadays].
MY ORIGINAL SYSTEM
You bet on one color and keep doubling your bet until you win while betting on just one kind of bet. I thought, how long can one bet go without hitting… but after buying my own roulette wheel, I quickly found out that it meant trouble! 2 days later a streak of 10 came up, so I decided perhaps this isn’t the best approach to go… back to the drawing boards!
Later, I thought of applying dozens, double streets, single streets, and single numbers would be the answer, but in the end, it was just as bad. There are so many winning series that can be formed during this type of playing, but the problem was that when you do end up losing your betting series, you end up losing a lot of wins in just one loss.
My view about progressions now though is that they can be extremely profitable as long as you do have discipline in using them as well as a method of “attack”.
Below are other alterations everyone has thought up when betting on any kind of bet in roulette while using a progression.
There is the waiting game. Let a certain bet sleep for a certain amount of time then you start to play it after so many misses have occurred. Even though each spin of the wheel is only an approx. 50/50 hit, you won’t see too often a run of 15+. It is even rare to come across some runs of 10+. By waiting, you are reducing your bankroll while hoping to wait out the bad runs which will put you quickly into the negatives.
There is the future game. Betting without any thought as to what may have just happened in the past. You can be playing fancy, simple, or just bizarre patterns, it doesn’t matter. Your future playing has no correlation to what just happened. Someone has posted a system the runs on this theory. What he has done is made a set number of lines and plays them regardless of what just came up. Moving bet to bet, changing it up, pattern by pattern is what this play is all about.
Recoup part of your losses. Not everyone is interested in playing a straight up martingale because there is always the fear of making high bets, so in turn, people will try to only gain partial losses back. An example of this would be betting 1-2-4 and if you lose all 3 bets, instead of betting 8, you make it 2-4-8 or even 3-6-12 [something that keeps you below the current betting stage]. And what happens is you play this lower progression until you either A) recover losses [then start over] or B) lose the 3 stage progression and make another progression under your progression.
Recoup part of your losses evenly. I always called this the X/Y formula because that is what it seems to be.
X = number of units you want to win
Y = number of spins you want to win those units in
Your next bet is calculated by dividing X by Y. If you lose, add units lost to X and if you win, deduct your unit bet from X and decrease Y by 1.
Sounds simple enough? Some other additions I ended up making to it was that if your bets got too high, increase Y or divide X by a number Z [z being 2,3,4 or higher] and trying to recoup each group of losses individually, hence, keeping bets lower. The only problem is that it just drags the game on and on and on and a huge bankroll is required to wait for that streak you need in order to come out a winner.
As you can see, nothing may really be new here. Let’s move onto my next system.
Before I get into the second set of systems, I just want to say, after going through the double up phase and winning everything in 1 bet, I kind of drifted towards a new aspect of the game. The question I asked myself was… “What are the chances of every bet coming up in an equal amount of spins?” My answer… “Very rarely...” This brings me to my next systems which are based on repeats. Lots of bets repeat before each unique bet of the same type shows up and that is what I tried to capitalize on while using this next method that I made during my first 1 ½ years of studying gambling as a hobby.
The "Holy Street's Progression Method"
[This system is made for both single zero wheel and a double zero wheel]
There is no collecting zone in this method, you play when you arrive at the table and see the next number play... [This system is lots of action]
ROULETTE TABLE LAYOUT
1 2 3
4 5 6
7 8 9
10 11 12
13 14 15
16 17 18
19 20 21
22 23 24
25 26 27
28 29 30
31 32 33
34 35 36
YOU NEED TO KNOW IF A NUMBER COMES UP, WHICH DOUBLE STREET TO BET ON... ABOVE THE DOUBLE STREETS ARE IN COLOR, IF ANY NUMBER TO THE RIGHT COMES UP OR THE NUMBER ITSELF, YOU WILL BET ON THAT DOUBLE STREET
Note: all you need is a card that keeps the numbers and two columns... one for what number came up and one for what double street that is...
HOW TO PLAY
1. wait for a number to show, then play that double street with one unit
2. wait for next number to show and play that double street as well as the previous double street
3. wait for the next number to show and play that as well as 2 previous streets played.
4. you do this one more time (4 times total)
[if a double zero or zero comes up, just put down a double street that you think will come up... that is the only gamble you will be making on your own]
Progreesion of the system
Here is how you are going to place your bets
Spin number number of chips per street
chips lost if you do lose this whole progression is -104 chips
NOTE: As you can tell, the progression doesn’t make a whole lot of sense considering it doesn’t recoup all losses as I thought it originally did. My first experience with progressions and the calculations aren’t adding up. Just saw that now as I went through this.
This is the number of chips won on whichever spins if it hits
spin number number of chips won
NOTE: The chips won per spin are accurate until the last bet, bet 5. When you bet 15 units on each you actually lose -14 units which must mean originally I must have planned for you to bet it 2 times and then restart? That would make sense…
If you lose a session...
next session you raise your bet to 5 chips (5 dollar chip)
If you lose that session...
next session you raise your bet to 25 chips (25 dollar chips)
If you lose that session...
you can if you want raise it to 125 units (125 dollar in chips)
Once you win using the next level of chips, go back down to one dollar chips...
in case you lose another session, you can then go up to the next level =)
Important note: When you are playing and you lose the first session, instead of going to 5 dollar chips, you can go directly to 10 dollar chips, that way when you win a session or two, you will recover your losses from the 1 chip session of one dollar really quickly...[for the more aggressive player]
Make sure that you can put the amount wanted to be played on the double street... for example... the casino will only let you put so much money on the board at one time (table limit) so make sure you can put whatever the total amount is (i.e. step 4 at 5 dollar chips would be 100 dollars total on the table at once!)
Also, that you can place the amount wanted on the street and not go over house regulations (i.e. if house says you can only put 150 dollars on a street, you have to calculate 125 X 5= 625 (you can not play this level), but if the house says 1000 dollars on a given double street, you are ok...
RECOMMENDED STOPPING POINTS
If you lose both the one dollar session and the five dollar session you should walk away.
If you want though, you can play the 25 dollar chip session.
When you are winning, walk away after you reach a reasonable amount of winnings such as maybe 50-100 dollars...
The session can last anywhere from 1 spin to 4 spins...
MODIFICATIONS THAT WERE MADE:
1) Wait for a bunch of single double streets to repeat before starting to play.
2) Wait for 2-3 unique double streets to play and start the progression from there.
Again, we are not looking at anything that hasn’t been thought of before, though this was my second system I made during my first year of learning about gambling. Not too bad for being only 16. But then there are always variations of this kind of method as well. It can be applied to… single numbers, single streets, double streets, dozens, columns, and also even money bets. Each progression would be different, but the concept I tried to focus on was a repeating bunch of numbers or areas of the board. You can also have entered points attached to this such as, start playing when the streets are repeating or do the opposite. The opposite would be waiting for streets to keep skipping around and play the opposite ones for 1 play and keep doing this while keeping the one that just hit in the open. Then there is the choice what kind of progressions to play when covering different bets, ones that recoup losses quickly or ones that do it over a period of bets… I hate choices…
I wrote another system down for single streets during the days back when, but I won’t bother posting it because you get the picture of what I am trying to do.
My third set of systems was inspired by playing certain sectors that tended to hit quite frequently. Thus, I created another system based upon this principal.
The “Holy Singles” Roulette System
[for single 0 wheel only]
make two columns of the following numbers...
column one column two
After you get 18 numbers, cross out the numbers that have shown... for example, if one shows up, cross it out in the column that has it.. after you cross out the numbers that showed up in the 18 numbers, then you pick the column that has the smallest amount of numbers crossed out and bet on the remaining numbers in that column..
here is yet another system..
[for double 00 wheel only]
column one column two
Use the same strategy as the previous one.
NOTE: it seems to me that my system right now is playing the non-trend numbers and is waiting for a deviation, should it be like that?? Maybe we should take advantage of the single number cycles that occur??
Basically what it comes down to is that there are 4 sectors that are split by those two columns and I think so far, playing for a deviation (or a return back to normal) is the way I am going... if you think I should do otherwise (follow the trend) please tell me..
Also I am thinking about making 4 columns, that way you get more precise details of where the ball is landing... also, I am working on how to make different columns so that you will be the benefit of the wheel...
TRIPLE THREAT PROGRESSION
1. First progression is 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5,5,6,6,7,7,8,8,9,9 etc… to whatever number is deemed necessary like 20,20, 21,21 and so on…
Note: Usually you will go to the point of the seven progression and if push comes to shove, maybe 10 or so… it usually also depends on if you are an aggressive player, I once went as high as 15,15… and I got a return of 6000 chips… usually I am more on the conservative side though…
2. When you win 3 times, you move down to the first number of the previous level (like if you win at 7, then go down to the first 6). If you lose the two numbers like 1,1, then you move to the next level hence comes the phrase, lose twice move up to next level/number of progression… If you are at a choppy point where you are winning every other one, don't worry, just stay at whatever number you are currently at (for example 2, if you are choppy on the second level, just stay at 2 until you win 3 times or lose twice)
Note: When you win three times, usually you will be ahead in profits.. for the more aggressive player, you can go ahead and only move down one level, but if a losing streak comes, you will not survive most likely. What I usually do is go down more than just one level, that way if a losing streak does appear, I can withstand it, especially if it is a long one (like a run of 12 no hits)…. This is also the path of the conservative player…
Another idea that you can apply is if you are up with the casino’s money to better withstand a losing streak is to increase the progression to 3 times a number like 1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,3 etc… instead of just two. This way you can also survive longer losing streaks. By doing so, you follow this progression, if you lose 3 times, go up a step, if you win 3 times, go down a step, and if you hit a win loss loss, loss win loss, loss loss win pattern, stay at your current level of progression…
3. If you lose a session, you double your bet (one unit bets go to 2 and 2 goes to 4 etc… )
Note: I have never encountered a losing streak of 2 sessions in a row, normally the lost sessions are about 8 to 10 sessions apart…
NOTE:Here are some other progressions I have been thinking about:
1. 1,1,2,2,3,3,5,5,8,8,13,13....[more aggressive than number 2, not recommended]
2. 1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,3,5,5,5,8,8,8,13,13,13... [seems OK for the more aggressive player]
3. 1,1,2,2,4,4,8,8,16,16... [not recommended]
4. 1,1,1,2,2,2,4,4,4,8,8,8,16,16,16... [not recommended]
5. 1,1,3,3,5,5,7,7,9,9,11,11,13,13 [not recommended, but could show good profits for short run]
6. 1,1,1,3,3,3,5,5,5,7,7,7,9,9,9,11,11,11... [could be useful for the more aggressive player, but not highly recommended]
here are the ones you will be using that are recommended:
They are safer, but if you win 2 in a row, you won't recover as many units as you would have with the other progressions above, but they are very risky.
OTHER WAYS TO PLAY
You don’t have to always play according to sector playing, using a progression on the last 12 or less numbers could always be an option too in terms of hot and cold Play the 12 numbers that are hitting the most or play the 12 numbers that refuse to hit in the hope that they will eventually turn around These are two alternate bet selections to sector playing. The reason I chose to play a sector with numbers that didn’t hit is because currently I don’t believe that numbers will hit again too often after they already hit but you still play a sector that is "hot" too...
The recommended player for this system is the conservative one. They will win in the long run. The aggressive players, I can only say, this can only help you a little. Due to the nature of GREED with the aggressive players, they only have 2 paths, RICHES and RAGS. The conservative player sets what the RICHES are and what the RAGS are If you want to play aggressively, do so after you have made enough money from being conservative, then you can afford to risk it all...
The bankroll required for this particular system is 1000 units
Note: This is in the works right now, it seems that you can get good results with just a bankroll of 600 chips, but we are still working on it.. we won't know until the end of the year...
You need to know how to set a stop loss limit and a goal. If you are ahead in winnings, (example you have 1500 chips of the casino’s money) you want to say if you lose 2 times in a row, then you will stop, and if you win 3 times in a row, you will stop at lets say 2300 units. If you lose then win, then you can reconfigure your losing point and goal. Just be reasonable with yourself and you will survive…
ALSO THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT
The conservative player from my testing will be the player that wins the most. The way they would act is as follows: When they are winning, they will lower their progression automatically. So if they won 2 in a row and are now up 100 chips, they will lower their units per number from (suppose it was 7) to maybe 1 or 2 chips. That way, they can keep their winnings longer and have a couple more losses. If they keep up with the progression, they might lose what they just achieved in 3 spins. But if they lower the progression, it might take 6 spins to take away their winnings and at the same time, only a one or two wins to get it all back.
Aggressive players will most likely lose their bankroll trying to keep the progression at 7, but if they hit a streak, payout is much higher than just having one or two chips on a number.. the risk is up to your GREED FACTOR.
RECOMMENDED STOPPING POINTS
When you are playing, and you are down, it is recommended that you stop no further than down than 600 chips. This way, you can minimize your loss, but you might run into a good run if you kept going when you were down 800 chips. That is a chance you will have to decide on, either stay, or don't stay. The conservative player will know when they should stop, and that would be around the 400-500 chip loss mark.
The aggressive player would try to keep going and hope for a good run. If it does hit, they will get paid off big. But if it doesn't, they can expect a bankroll to be lost.
Note: If the table is choppy in the sense that you are UP in profits, then DOWN in profits, then UP in profits and DOWN in profits, it is recommended that once you notice this pattern, you stop play once you are up in profits.
POSSIBLE GAIN THIS SYSTEM YIELDS
From my experiences so far, I have had a winning session that was only a small 100 units, but I have also had one session that gave out a huge 7392 unit profit! It really depends on what kind of player you are, the more aggressive, then the more chance you take, but the more conservative player will only yield the 100-500 unit profits (which is still plenty in my opinion)…
From my experiences, one session can easily recover a losing session, and if that doesn’t do it all, two sessions will definitely cover the full 1000 unit loss of a previous session..
Note: If you hit a favorable trend, follow it up until you hit the point where you lose 3 times in a row, then stop, this is most advisable because if you hit a good run, and you lose 3 times, you will still be up ahead by a good margin…
HOW YOU CAN BEAT THE WHEEL
By being a player you can first of all beat the wheel. You get to pick when you stop and when you play. The reason a system won't win in the long run is because players play too long, what you want to do is make it favorable in your eyes, so only play about one to three sessions a day. And to make it even more in your favor, I believe you should play at different tables. This way you won't be in the danger zone of losing everything with one wheel… (if you play just one wheel, you might hit that bad zone (long term loss as people call it) but if you play a couple wheels, you will be getting different long term results.
Note: Currently this is not concrete, but it could be.. we will know in a year...
ALSO VERY IMPORTANT
BASIS OF THIS SYSTEM
The system is based on one factor: the GREED FACTOR. By being greedy, a person can only gain so much. It is designed to go on your needs. If you are a greedy person, you will probably play aggressively, and if you are not truly greedy, you may play more conservatively. The ideal player who will win in the long haul is the one that is conservative and knows when to stop when they are both at a loss point, and at a winning point. The aggressive player can risk it all and either be paid off in great riches, or they will be paid off by giving their shirt away to the casino (casino's love when this happens because it makes them big bucks.)
On average, the session length may be anywhere from 10 spins after you start placing numbers to 60 or more spins (I once went 63 spins and made the huge gain of 7392 chips)
Note: It is recommended that a session length to be about 22 spins of the wheel, but it depends on how you are doing. If you are slightly up, a conservative player would stop, but if you want to go for more money, you would keep going…
CURRENTLY, IF YOU HAVEN'T NOTICED, THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS THAT YOU CAN USE... TWO ARE THE SAME, JUST MADE FOR DIFFERENT WHEELS (0,00) AND THE OTHER IS MADE FOR BOTH WHEELS AND HAS A DIFFERENT CONCEPT...
This system is totally beta right now. It is a modified system that is still being updated and changed (nothing is set in stone, I am still working on what kind of numbers would benefit the system), testing has initiated on it so far, and the results are as follows…
27 sessions have been tested, 5 sessions were lost, 22 were won. Presently it stands at +15238 units won. This system will not be released to anyone or will even be considered good until it has gone through an extensive testing of at least 500-600 plus sessions. From there on, results will be updated and further shown.
Until that day comes, it is not to be told, sold, or traded, or handed out to anyone (no form of letting other people get a hold of it)
The Holy Grail Roulette System [SIMPLIFIED VERSION]
Just as above, you follow the way to pick the numbers.
The progression you follow is: 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4...
If you lose twice, go to the next level.
If you lose win lose win etc... stay at current level.
If you win 3 times, go down a level.
Bankroll: 1000 chips
User type: conservative and aggressive players
System: will not work on its own. It needs a person to have judgment calls and know when he should stop versus to keep going (it is described well in the above written material).
Patience level: somewhat low for the conservative player, moderate for the moderate player (not aggressive/not conservative), very high for the aggressive player.
Statistics so far: The conservative player wins more sessions than an aggressive player because they stop after 100 unit gain and set the stop loss/ go for it goals.
The aggressive player loses more sessions, but sticks with the higher progressions and wins more when they win. They probably lose 2-3 times as many sessions as the conservative player, but make 2-3 times per session as the conservative player..
CURRENT DISPUTES IN THE SYSTEM THAT MAY BE CHANGED
Which system will be used, and will it be better for the no shows or shows (numbers). I think, people should play as they want, i.e. sleepers versus hot numbers.
The progression levels:
so far the ones being used
The ones being considered to be put into the system with [not recommended] signs:
The one in red (the second one) is being disputed on right now.
Bankroll size: it seems it might be anywhere from 600-1000 units right now... time will tell.
COLUMNS DESCRIBING PLAY
There is dispute on whether we should add columns like the following:
CONSERVATIVE PLAYER: tell how the conservative player would play
AGGRESSIVE PLAYER: tells how the aggressive player would play
RECOMMENDED WAY TO PLAY: what is recommended to be done in the given situation..
I never followed up on this system to make
corrections to it or make it “better” nor did I answer the questions I had during the write up of the system. I just one day wrote it out
after playing online in demo mode with it and thought it was the greatest
thing. But, I did end up losing more units than I won in the end after
testing approx. 100 sessions.
So as you can see, the system was based on the concept of playing sectors. Hot and cold, it didn’t make much difference in the end. But when it comes to sector play, here is another system variation that you could always do [which is one I never followed up, but plays the wheel instead of the dealer].
SECTOR VARIATION 1
Pick 9 to 12 numbers that are on the wheel. Now find the frequency in which they are hitting. 1 hit every 4 spins, 1 hit every 5 spins, 1 hit every other spin, etc. Keep tabs on them and when you see a constant pattern, play them for a certain amount of spins then stop. If you get a hit within the allotted time, then you were successful, if you don’t get a hit, then you should stop because it might now be a sleeping sector that may not hit for a prolonged time period.
SECTOR VARIATION 2
Same as Sector Variation 1 above, except you keep tabs on the entire wheel by 4 sectors. It is just taking things to the next level…
HOW TO CHART & PLAY FOR BOTH OF THE VARIATIONS
You will write the number of times your numbers went without hitting in a column.
When you find a certain period of time that they tend to be hitting, then start betting on them. If they aren’t hitting until the 3rd or more, wait for 1 or 2 losses before starting your progression. Never bet more than the estimated value of spins that has been occurring. This is just the simple way to play the wheel, there is much more advanced techniques in doing so...
I’ve actually had a little success with this method in testing, though I never went into depth in this particular area. I never found sector playing interesting and I am sure there are other ways to play sectors such as the wheel clocking and eye-balling the tables to find where the ball is going to land.
Where did I go from here? Well I
covered the win once to gain a unit progression. I also covered the sector
playing and playing for repeats to occur.
Predicting the Path of Randomness Throughout the Double Street Bets [can be applied to others as well…]
Rules for selection:
1) You will select one and only one double street to play against the entire time, how you choose it will be up to you.
Betting: you will be trying to put more on the winning cycle and less on the loss (a cycle consists of 6 spins)
IN 6 SPINS, YOU WOULD EXPECT ONE DOUBLE STREET TO APPEAR ONCE, SO WE WILL FOCUS IN ON THIS AND TRY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT
1) You will start by placing a bet down on the double street you choose. In a cycle of 6, each double street should hit once. So if you lose the first time, you will increment your bet for the next couple of spins until the 6 cycle is over.
2) If another loss in incurred during this period, you will immediately drop down to 1 unit per double street due to deviation of the double street that you are betting on, it could be a hot one and you will want it to cool down before you play, so continue to play this double street, but only with one unit (per others)
3) If you have lost twice within the first couple of spins and are only betting one unit, you will wait until you see a sequence of 6 that goes where you had all 6 spins hit. This is the time you go back to rule one (which is you start by placing down your bet, and when you lose, you increment your bet upward hoping for a cycle to occur and take advantage of it. If you lose twice, you go back to rule 2)
1) You start out by placing 2 units on
each double street besides the one you are playing against
2) When you lose twice, you will
place 1 unit on each double street until the signal to start betting again
occurs (like normal)
3) If you lose in during your cycle, increment your bets upward knowing that during a regular cycle, a double street is only suppose to appear once, and if it appears more than once, it is deviating from its norms and it will later not hit for a period of time (I think you might want to consider placing 4 units per double street)
Note: if you lose while upping your bet, you immediately drop your bet down to 1 unit per double street
Note2: after a cycle is over, you drop back down to betting 2 units
Note3: if you do not incur a loss during 6 spins, you may be on a strong deviation against the double street, so it is recommend that you put 4 units per double street instead of 2 and play according to the ratios given before in the betting amounts
Be careful of a hot street, it can take you for a lot of money and perhaps the wisest thing to do would be to bet 1 unit on it until it cools down instead of playing the other 5 double streets...
Another thing to look for while playing this strategy is that when you monitor a 6 spin cycle, see how often it receives a hit. It is like playing a pattern within a pattern, you know? For example, let's say I have down a bunch of 6 cycle patterns and it looks like this…
Perhaps you can see that during a cycle you can play a small progression on that double street and get a few hits in. Stop right away after a profit and re-analyze the table."
So those were some initial set of Joe's ideas. There will be more to come. If you wish to donate some money to Joe so he can continue his research, you can do so by sending to his PayPal account: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Wishing you all the best,
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