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Thursday, November 6, 2003
This week we will be discussing a roulette system, that was posted by a friend from Cyprus. His name is Kani and his winning idea is indeed very interesting.
Kani's system consists of a 55 step progression and he bets on the single streets in Roulette. Single streets consist of the set of 3 numbers, such as 1-2-3 or 4-5-6, etc.
We will refer to them as streets numbers 1-12 respectively. So street 1 will be the 3 numbers 1-2-3. Street 2 will be 4-5-6. Street 3 will be 7-8-9, all the way to street 12 which will consist of 34-35-36.
Kani bets on all the 12 streets, but with a special way. He first places one unit on all 12 streets and tracks which street will show up. Of course, placing a unit on all 12 streets is equivalent to not placing any bet at all, since the streets pay 12 to 1 and the profit will be null. And a zero could wipe out all the 12 units. Therefore, our first bet will be a mere observation of which street has hit. And if this happens to be a zero, we observe one more decision until one of the 12 streets hits.
Let's say number 8 comes up. This belongs to street no. 3. So the next bet is on the 11 other streets, that is, on all streets but no. 3. How much do we bet on each street? The amount of the first entry of the progression table below:
(Spin 1 is 0, as this was only an observation).
Spin/Bet per Street (in units) ------ -------------------------------- 1 0 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 3 9 3 10 4 11 5 12 6 13 7 14 8 15 9 16 10 17 11 18 12 19 13 20 14 21 15 22 17 23 19 24 21 25 23 26 25 27 27 28 29 29 31 30 34 31 37 32 40 33 43 34 47 35 52 36 57 37 62 38 67 39 74 40 81 41 89 42 97 43 107 44 116 45 127 46 138 47 150 48 165 49 180 50 195 51 215 52 235 53 255 54 280 55 305
The figures are in units. Kani plays with $0.10 units. They can be $1, $5, or any unit that the table allows. The progression goes from 1 unit all the way to 305. However, there won't be any need to go that far. You will see, that we will have exit points, particularly when we are ahead.
If one of the 11 streets hits, then it's crossed out and the next bet is on the remaining 10 streets. The betting amount is the next entry on the progression table above.
If the street repeats, then the same streets are bet.
The idea is to bet on the remaining streets and every time a street hits, it's crossed out, always following the next entry of the progression table.
Now, why would this be a winning system? The progression is built in such a way, that when all streets are hit within 55 spins, one will make a profit. However, one will make a profit also on the way to hitting all streets, while advancing on the progression. The question is when to quit.
Since we are betting on 11 streets at the very first bet, chances of winning that bet is 11 out of 12 or considering the zeros, 33/37 at a single zero table or 33/38 at a double zero table.
Therefore, chances of being ahead are very high already after the very first bet.
You can set your win limit, either at the moment you are ahead, which could very well be after the very first bet, or you can advance in the progression until you gather a decent amount of units.
You could for instance quit at the second moment you are ahead, if the first bet is won. Or you could quit the moment you are ahead if the first bet is not won.
We will see a few examples from the Excel simulation I have built for this method.
This is a typical and very successful run. Here we are betting until all streets have been covered.
To explain the columns of the simulation.
Roulette Number is the actual number that comes up on the roulette wheel. Street 1-12 is the street no. as explained above Spin no. is the number of the spin. No. of streets to bet on decreases as we cover more streets. Bet per street is per the progression table. Total bet is calculated by the bet per street times the number of streets we're betting on. The unit value used is $1. Win/Lose is a "W" when one of the streets we're betting on hit, a "L", when it doesn't hit. Cash is what we gain or lose per bet. Net is the net running total.
The very first spin is an observation. We see Street 10 hits. Then we bet on all the other streets. As expected, the very first bet wins, bringing us ahead by $1. We cross out streets 5 and 10 and bet on all the remaining ones, etc.
If you would continue all the way to the end of the run, where all streets have already been bet on, you would end up with $352 or 352 units.
Let's see another example.
In Example 2, we see that we end up negative if we continue to cover all the streets. This is why an exit point is necessary. We see around spin 16, we have a decent profit. This is an indication to quit the progression.
In example 3, we are negative most of the time, except at the very beginning and towards the very end. We also observe that the bet per street goes to 107 units, which may surpass some table limits. One way to overcome that is to split the bet into the 3 numbers equally. So, instead of betting 107 units on one streets, you could bet 36 units on each of the 3 numbers of those streets.
Example 3 also shows that you may need a very large bankroll to pursue with the progression. One may not have the patience or the courage to continue with it, as the losses incurred may rise quite high. So in this case, we see that the suggestion of leaving the progression at the earlier stages is much more valid.
I have not seen many runs, where one is never ahead. It could happen though, but extremely rarely. I wouldn't take that kind of chance and always try to quit the progression early enough.
Try out the system for yourselves and you will see that you will have multiple winning sessions.
The ITS - Intraday Trade system
announced 3 weeks ago, is doing extremely well. The course
There were a few more questions on ITS that Edmond is replying:
I received the email about your newest trading system but I am confused about how it works and have questions about your guarantee. Please read my comments in between your statements.
Q. How does the warranty work?
A. ITS comes with a clear and honest refund policy:
After buying this system, you take 10 following trades on the FTSE WITHOUT skipping one and STRICTLY following the rules explained in this course.
Q. What following ten trades, where do they come from?
A. As soon as you get ITS, you have to take the first 10 trades that ITS generates on the FTSE. Following means 10 trades generated by ITS without skipping one. You can take these trades of course only on paper and not with real money, so that you don't risk even $1 on testing ITS.
You use 30 as a standard value for buying a contract.
Q. What does this mean? 30 what?
A. 30 points. A point can have the value you give to it. For example: $1, $10, or $50.
You can for example buy 1 contract for 30 points X $10 = $300. The only important thing when testing is the 30 points.
You follow the principle of always risking 10% of your total trading capital on each trade.
If – following these principles – you have an OVERALL loss over these 10 trades, you are refunded without discussion.
Q. Hi Edmond, I'm from England and bought your TTS system. Am interested in your new method only because this method is TOTALLY non subjective. Everyone should come up with the same numbers unlike the TTS method where the bands may be different depending on which high/low points you pick. Is this correct? Can you play this method with options at all or is it spread betting? Don't like using no stop loss!! How far have you actually checked this method on the FTSE 100 and what if anything do you see as the potential weakness in the method. will it work on all types on market conditions or is it based on the volatility approach.
A. ITS is specially developed for spread betting. However, you can apply it also for options, futures and stocks as explained in the course.
If you use it for the special spread betting it is designed for, you don't need stops because you are absolutely protected and know in advance exactly how much you risk on a trade.
If you want to use it for options, you need indeed to use a stop. I'm using simply 50% stop loss when I trade options.
I have thoroughly tested it on all indexes, individual stocks and commodities. The results are the same for all markets traded but you have a limited offering of markets with the special spread betting ITS is made for.
To conclude: consider ITS a trading system specially developed for spread betting but also giving excellent results for "normal" trading.
Q. So will it work for spreads like May corn /May soybeans as well or similar? Do you need a bar chart with open , high, low close etc. or will it work from closing prices alone? What software did you use for back-testing your results and will I come up with exactly the same numbers as you? No SUBJECTIVITY!!
A. You need a complete bar graph: open,
high, low, close.
Q. What sort of drawdown is there with the method and will the results be similar if I just traded futures or individual stocks instead? Will the ratio be 70% wins using 30 point loss to 70 point win?
A. Drawdown per trade when using it for
spread betting is fixed by yourself. For example 30 or 40 or 50.
When using it for normal trading, the drawdown depends on your stop
loss and where you get out exactly (as a stop loss does not guarantee
that you get out at the defined level).
A. Profit ratio depends on the maximum risk you take. If you take for example 30 points risk, your potential profit will be 70 points. You always get out at the end of the day, at least for spread betting.
Q. It's OK to have a 70 point profit
target but it may only be hit maybe 50% of the time.
A. To resume it in another way: I meant
that you make 70 points profit on all profitable trades (70% or more).
So indeed your calculation is right: if you profit only on 70% of your
trades, your total profit will be (70 X 70 units) - (30 X 30 units) =
4000 units. Looks fantastic to me.
Wishing you all the best,
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