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Thursday, November 28, 2002
Customer Input on KISS and
its Use with the Derivative Method
main part is written by a Let's Talk Winning customer: Paul Langham,
who likes sharing ideas with other members. Paul also analyses
financial market trading systems and he recently emailed me on the usage of
the KISS system in conjunction with the
"I have read the
attached derivative method and you seem to have beaten me to it! By waiting
for an entry point after a loss, you initiate your setup criteria. In doing
that you are now matching almost perfectly the best financial market trading
systems. You apply a 50/50 chance and apply a good money management system.
As I understand it on should now play the KISS system with derivative method
in order to obtain best results. By best results I mean a low drawdown, and
a steady growing increase in winnings.
I will continue my tests on the original KISS and try to introduce the
trailing stop idea, maintaining the -6 or +12. At the same time I will look
at creating some tests for the KISS/Derivative system."
There have been some
mixed views on the KISS system used with the Derivative method. Some
customers specified that they had to wait for 40+ decisions before joining
the game and considered this waiting period as lost opportunities, although
it makes it safer. On the other hand, this also shows, that the 40+
decisions had nothing but winning runs.
One can conclude from
this that using KISS as is, is quite profitable. Using it in
conjunction with the Derivative method requires more patience but increases
profitability ratio by 10%.
This is what Paul
expressed in terms of KISS:
"I am a relative newcomer to this
been watching things from the sidelines, these last four months. I now feel
I would like to enter the discussion concerning KISS. Firstly however, I
want to say how refreshingly pleasant it is to see the interchange of ideas
which takes place on the forum, and the generosity which is shown by members
in offering systems advice and help to other members.
Concerning KISS I have read the various interchanges of ideas and arguments
about whether or not KISS is a viable and profitable system. Perhaps I
can add a small contribution to how I see that, but firstly I want to
explain that I have extensive experience in trading the financial derivative
markets over many years. I have known both winning and losing periods. I no
longer trade these markets as I have found that I can no longer make money
trading them. This is because the markets have evolved to such an extent
that unless you are very heavily capitalized, it becomes difficult to stay
profitable. I started trading options in 1985, the market is completely
different now, I have seen it develop and change. My interest in Roulette
has always been there and now my attention is turned to it on a more active
Regarding KISS, what I can offer as advice and which can be readily found in
any trading book is the fact there are three areas of fundamental importance
to any system, the staking plan, the entry and exit points and the bank or
trading capital. Izak has already shown that he understands many of the
principles of good trading by establishing the rule whereby you close out
when you are +12 points or -6. There has also been some mention of altering
the profit get out point. I feel that perhaps with a slight alteration to
the entry and exit points, the KISS system might be a very big winner
indeed. This is because it has the potential for large wins relative to
drawdown within the shoe or win/loose period.
If we take the old market adages, The trend is your friend or Cut your
losses short, Let your winners run, we can look at KISS and see how we
can apply these principles.
The trend is your friend If we analyze the shoes already
presented by Izak, we can see that some of them could have won by up to +60
or +80 points , if we had not have stuck to our game plan of closing out at
+12. So the question should be how can we take advantage of the possibility
of a +60 or +80 win occurring and yet at the same time make sure we keep
some profit if the trend turns against us and the shoe goes from a good
winning one to a loosing shoe. The answer could be if we use a trailing
stop. A trailing stop is also something frequently used by traders in
financial markets. Once you are up say to +15 you use a trailing stop
which says that if we drop back by a number of points say to +10 or by a
certain percentage you close out your position or here you end the shoe. The
closeness of the stop, is a question of judgment, trading/gaming style and
depends upon the system which has been designed. When you design your system
however, and you have found the stop which suits you and the system, it must
be set in concrete and you must stick to the level you have decided, with no
exceptions. If it is time to get out then you must get out. Personally I
like to run trailing stops not too close, say at 25% beneath the market
price or in our case beneath the amount we are up. This gives the system the
flexibility to drop back a little - not too much though - so that we
preserve capital, but still have the chance to make more money if the shoe
really takes off.
Cut your losses short This adage already appears to be in place
as Izak recommends closing out at -6. We obviously need to give the system
some space so that we do not close out a later winning shoe too early. Izak
has tested the system over thousands of shoes and so I suppose he has found
that the best results achieved, whereby we have enough space to have a
successful shoe , but at the same time avoid a loosing shoe becoming too
Let your winners run By implementing the trend is your friend
stop loss approach this lets your winning shoes run.
Viability of KISS
I want to add a word on the viability of KISS. I should say that I am a
purchaser of the system although I have not yet played or tested it. I will
carry out my own extensive testing against roulette, both live and with
random number generators and with one of the reputable on-line casinos
trial sessions. If I am satisfied, then I will play this live. If anyone
wants to help me testing this just let me know.
I believe that what we all need to understand that a system can be declared
as viable if it performs well over a valid observation period. What is a
valid period? The system is sold as being profitable over the long run. This
means, I assume over thousands and thousands of shoes. The longer the
observation period the more reliable the results. Most large financial
trading houses test their systems over years and years worth of data.
Results from just a few shoes or a short observation period do not really
prove that much, as how do you know whether or not you are in a winning
phase or losing phase within a larger winning picture? Markets have phases,
up, down and sideways. Within each of these phases the same three phases
exist, but in mini form and this goes on and on down to phases lasting
minutes or seconds. I believe that a roulette wheel although not driven by
human emotion as markets also has phases. The phase where patterns repeat
will result in the trend being your friend. You get on the train and go
for a ride, follow the pattern and you will win. The pattern which Izak
admits will loose money is in financial terms the downtrend, and should be
avoided, this is where there is no pattern which we can profit from, and
therefore we close out and await the new set up point. KISS does this by
coming out at -6. It doesnt however wait too long before entering again.
Perhaps the system should first see a winning pattern, before entering
again? The sideways choppy market is also a pattern. With KISS this pattern
may also produce a profit, according to the results provided by Izak, this
is a win where we net +12 or go to -6. This case is where the shoe has had
some winning hands and some losing, but is overall choppy.
What I am trying to say is that unless your observation period number of
shoes includes - all the various types of patterns, then you will always
find that the results are spurious.
One other thing. Izak mentioned that one can play three sessions
simultaneously on the same roulette wheel. This is because one can play the
three even money chances as separate games but play them simultaneously. I
feel this is a good idea, although one must be fairly agile in order to keep
track of the results of each chance. The effect will be a smoothing of the
profit and loss. Whilst one chance could be a good and big winner the other
two might be a in a different phase. The interplay between the three chances
should be a gentle winning curve. This is of course assuming that the system
is a winner over a long observation period.
Concerning the bank, this seems inadequate as sold. I would personally
factor in a something like bank ten times the worst known case, into any
system. I traded, that way I would always know that what ever happened in
the future my bank would never be sufficiently depleted that I could not
carry on. If my system is correctly tested over thousands of observations I
would know that in anything but totally exceptional conditions my bank would
never be tested to its limit
What we really need is a real test either against roulette or Baccarat of
many many thousands of observations. Where the stop loss theory is applied.
I am prepared to offer any help I can to anyone who feels I can contribute
to this debate. Additionally if it is thought useful, I can publish the
results of my tests, these will be roulette based, or even offer my software
to any other member who can retest my tests, so that we ensure there is no
slip up in testing."
I thank Paul very much
for his contribution and openness.
all the best,
Until next week,
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