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Thursday, May 2, 2002
We all know the famous card counting method developed by Edward Thorp gives an edge to the player playing Blackjack. In this newsletter we will see how we can apply this great concept to my Derivative Method in order to even further increase your winning chances in casino gambling.
Let's start first with a refresher on this famous card counting method.
In blackjack, your
probability of winning a particular hand is very dependent upon the mix of the cards
remaining to be played. If this mix of cards happens to contain an abundance of high value
cards (ex. 10's), then your chances of winning increases. On the other hand, if the mix
contains an abundance of low cards (ex. 2 through 6), then your chances of winning are not
good. This has been proven over and over again by countless millions of computer studies,
i.e. a deck (or shoe) rich in tens will favor the player and a deck deficient in tens or
containing an excess of low cards will favor the dealer.
A counter now enjoys the ideal playing conditions. If the count is positive, his/her chances of winning increase and therefore bets larger amounts. If the count is negative, the counter bets the 1 minimum or nothing at all (why bet when the dealer's chances of winning are greater than yours?) Thus over the long run, card counters lose as little as possible when their chances of winning are poor but more importantly, they win much more when they have the advantage. In fact a counter has up to a 1 to 2% advantage over the casino.
Now, how do we apply this wonderful concept to the derivative method, so this privilege will not remain only for blackjack but can be used in other games as well, as if you recall the derivative method is applicable to any game using any system.
To quickly summarize the derivative method, it's a means to skip failure points of a system and play only in favorable conditions, thus avoiding you to get caught in a losing streak. The derivative method was fully documented in the newsletter of February 14, 2002, that you can find by clicking: http://www.letstalkwinning.com/winalert_February14_2002.htm.
The derivative method requires you to approach a table, start tracking the decisions without betting and apply the system on paper until the system reaches a failure point. Then you would join the game and apply your system. Having skipped the losing streak, your chances of winning are highly increased, unless, of course, two losing streaks occur back to back. Then you would need to apply the second level of the derivative method, which requires more patience and more tracking.
At times, however, the tables are quite crowded and it is impractical to apply the derivative method as documented, because the minute you want to join the game, you can't find an empty seat at that table. So, now comes the card counting concept mixed with the derivative method handy.
Let me explain. You join the table as soon as you find an empty seat. Instead of waiting, not betting and tracking, which will not be tolerated, you start applying your system right away. However, you use the smallest unit possible. Win or lose some bets, you keep on using the smallest amounts you can bet, as if you were counting cards and the result was negative numbers. Then, when an unavoidable losing streak occurs, you don't lose that much as your bets were small. This would mark your failing point. After a few consecutive wins, which is equivalent to counting positive numbers, you are ready to apply the system at its full fledge and would increase your betting unit by 5 or 10 times the units with which you initially started off.
This will enable you a similar advantage and results to card counting in blackjack.
I have tried this with FBMP (Flat Bet Mini Play - Baccarat system) last week and was very successful. I was using the straight method with flat bets using initially $20 chips, which were the minimum at the Baccarat tables in Casino of Montreal. My profits and losses were slowly fluctuating with the normal winning tendency of the FBMP system. Towards one fourth of the shoe, I encountered 8 consecutive losses, which brought me to -4 units as I was up +4 before it happened. After that, two consecutive wins marked the beginning of a winning streak. I raised my bets to $200 a unit. Wins and losses now fluctuated in a more positive way. At this stage I was up by 6 units using $200 units.
So, it's easy to do the math. I was down by 4 units with $20 chips being at -$80. Then won 2 units on a Player bet being at -$40. Then was up by 6 units with $200, gaining $1200 minus commissions on 4 banker bet winnings, that is +$1160, overall profiting $1160 -$40 or $1120.
You're welcome to test this combined concept and I am sure you will be satisfied with the results.
all the best,
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