That's a lot of advertising for an
invisible bet, because the casinos don't even bother to label the bet on the craps layout.
Go check out any craps layout in any casino in the world. You'll never find the words
“odds bet” anywhere. And unless you ask, the dealers will never mention it. Yet
this invisible, secret bet has the uncanny ability of lowering the already measly 1.41%
casino edge on the pass line to - are you ready for this? - up to an unheard of 0.02%
(folks, that means the casino only stands to earn a piddling 2 cents for every $100 of
action).
How in blazes, you ask, does this
invisible bet work? It's really quite simple. With most bets, the casino will always pay
off at less than true odds. It's like winning 95 cents instead of a buck if you were to
flip a coin for a dollar and win. By paying less than true odds on winning bets, casinos
guarantee themselves a profit. But with the odds bet in craps it's different, because the
casinos pay the same as true odds. Which means the casino's edge on the odds bet amounts
to a big fat zero. It's the only bet in the entire house like this, so no wonder it's
often called the 'free' odds bet.
Here's how to make this invisible bet.
Start by making a bet on the pass line and wait for the come-out roll. If the shooter
throws a 7 or 11 you win. If he throws a 2, 3, or 12 you lose. If any of these numbers are
rolled on the come-out roll you won't have the chance to make the free odds bet. However,
once the shooter throws a point number on the come-out roll - the numbers 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or
10 - you have the opportunity to make the odds bet. Do it by placing an additional wager
directly behind the pass line bet. Those chips resting behind the pass fine in an
unlabeled area of the layout are universally understood as the free odds bet.
The odds bet sort of rides along with
the pass line bet. Both bets win if the shooter repeats the point number before throwing a
7. Both bets lose if the shooter throws a 7 before the point number.
The difference between the pass line
bet and the odds bet is the amount of the payoff when the bet wins. Pass line bets win at
1-to-1 payoff odds. This means if you bet $5, you'll win $5. The odds bet, as I mentioned
previously, gets paid at true odds when it wins. That means you'll get paid at greater
than 1-to-1 odds, depending upon the point number. Those true odds are:
2-to-1 for the point numbers 4 and 10,
3-to-2 for the point numbers 5 and 9,
6-to-5 for the point numbers 6 and 8.
It's kind of important to memorize
those odds because to get them you have to bet the right amount of money. Don't panic, the
craps expert Larry Edell (editor, The crapshooter Newsletter) has developed a neat
shortcut for remembering those true odds.
First, the true odds for the 4 and 10
are the same, as are the odds for the 5 and 9 and the 6 and 8. To get the true odds, just
subtract one from the smaller of these numbers and relate it to 6 (the number of times a 7
is rolled). It's that easy.
For example, if you want to know what
the true odds are for the 4 and 10, just subtract one from 4 and you get 3. So the true
odds for the 4 and 10 are 6 to 3, or rounded 2 to 1. To get the true odds for the 6 and 8,
subtract one from 6 to get 5, or true odds of 6 to 5. True odds for the 5 and 9 is one
from 5 equals 4, or 6 to 4 (rounded it's 3 to 2). Pretty neat, huh?
All casinos allow players to wager
single odds. This means you are allowed to make an odds wager equal to the pass line bet.
Most casinos will also take double odds. This means the player can make an odds bet equal
to twice the amount wagered on the pass line. For example, a player who bets $5 on the
pass line would be allowed to wager up to $10 in odds. There are also casinos that heavily
advertise 10-times 20-times and even 100-times odds. In the example of the 100-times odds,
this means a bettor making a $5 pass line wager could wager as much as $500 in odds.
As a general rule of thumb, to get the
maximum odds payoff you should always bet an even amount of money when the point is 5 and
9 and in increments of $5 if the point is 6 and 8. Why is that? Suppose you bet $5 on the
pass line and the point becomes 9. If you were to wager $5 as an odds bet and the bet won,
the payoff at 3-to-2 odds would be $1.50. Casinos don't deal in small change, so to
accommodate the needs of players who want to be paid at true odds they allow players to
bump up their odds bet a buck from $5 to $6. Now the casino can pay the $6 odds bet when
it wins at $9 (3 to 2 payoff). Likewise, to get the 6-to-5 payoff on the point numbers 6
and 8, you should always make an odds bet in increments of $5. That way, if you bet $5
you'll win $6, bet $10 - and win $12, and so forth.
If you're still confused, try this
foolproof way for making the odds bet:
Wager three units on the pass line. If
the point is 4 and 10, wager three units as odds. If the point number is 5 or 9, wager 4
units in odds. If the point number is 6 or 8, wager 5 units.
If you bet this way and win, the
payoff regardless of the point number is always 9 units. Simple enough?
The above is ideal for the player who
wants to wager $3 on the pass line and take either $3, $4 or $5 in odds, depending upon
the point number. No matter what the point number is, when it wins you'll be paid $9.
If you see casinos advertise that they
offer "true odds" or "full odds," it means they will pay 3 times on
the 4 and 10, 4 times on the 5 and 9 and 6 times on the 6 and 8 (same as above). For
example, if you bet $15 on the pass line, a casino that offers "full odds" will
allow a player to wager $15 in odds on 4/10, $20 in odds on 5/9 and $25 odds on 6/8. The
payoffs for the winning odds wager in all three cases is $30, which is an easy amount for
the dealer to pay off.
Another way to make life simple is to
bet $5 on the pass line and always take $10 as double odds. With a $10 odds bet, the
payoff is $20 for the 4 and 10, $15 for the point numbers 5 and 9, and $12 for the 6 and
8.
If all else fails just ask the dealer
how much to bet in odds and he will gladly help you. That's their job, and by the way,
don't forget to show your appreciation by making a pass line and odds bet for them once in
a while.
Given a choice, it's always to your
benefit to wager small amounts on the pass line and larger amounts on the free odds bet.
That's because the casino has a slot edge on the pass fine portion of your bet but no edge
on the odds portion. Thus if you normally bet $25 on the pass fine, you are much better
off betting $5 on the pass line and taking $20 in odds. You'll have the same amount of
money riding on the outcome at one fifth the cost.
The ideal way to take advantage of the
free odds bet is to wager the absolute minimum the casinos win allow, then gradually
increase the amount of your odds wager as you win.
It's true that the more you bet in
odds in relation to your pass fine bet, the lower the casino's edge (see table below). But
keep in mind that when you bet more in odds, you are also putting more of your bankroll at
risk. That's why it's best to start with single or double odds, then gradually increase
the amount of your odds wager as you win.
Odds Multiple Casino Edge (%)
0
1.414
1
0.848
2
0.606
3
0.471
5
0.326
10
0.184
20
0.099
100 0.021
Once you make a pass line wager, you
can't remove it from the layout or add more money to the bet after a point number is
rolled (it's a contract bet which means it stays on the layout till it wins or loses). Not
so with the odds bet. If you want, you can remove, increase or reduce the amount of your
odds bet at any time.
One last key point about the odds bet.
Most casinos won't give you comp credit for the odds bet because they have no advantage.
However, some casinos will give you credit for your "spread," which includes the
odds portion of your bet. Ask a casino host what their policy is and given a choice, play
where they give you full comp credit, including the amount you wager as odds.
You could also make an odds wager on
the come or don't pass/don't come wagers.
Don’t forget to sign up for the
$1000 VegasUSA draw. Just open a real account
at VegasUSA following the link: http://www.vegasusa.com:8080/english/?aap85, send your VegasUSA account name to webmaster@letstalkwinning.com, wager with
real money and be entitled for the $1000 giveaway. The
winner will be announced at the end of the month, on the newsletter of May 31, 2001.
A Simple Roulette Strategy
A couple of days ago, I was going down
the stairs in a metro station to take the metro to work.
I had returned my leased car and my new car was going to be ready only the
day after, so I had to use the metro that day. While
going down the stairs I heard the noise of a metro approaching. Constantly thinking odds, I thought there would
be a 50% probability that the metro was coming from south to north and 50% that it would
come from north to south, as there were only two directions. With this in mind I started going down the stairs
a bit faster. As I approached the platforms,
I saw that there were a lot more people standing for the south direction. This led me to
believe that there was a metro that went north not long ago and that the next coming one
would be for going south. The chances of the
next metro going north was still 50%, but the fact that there were more people for the
south direction, added another factor to those odds and increased the likelihood that the
next metro would be for the south direction.
Comparing this to Roulette, we all
know that the probability of the next spin being either Red or Black is nearly 50%, but
there are other factors that increase the likelihood of its being Red or Black and
let’s see what those factors can be:
Some of us Roulette enthusiasts like
to play long hours of Roulette spins. Some of
us are satisfied with quick hits and runs. In
Roulette you will probably accomplish your goal on a short amount of play rather than
extended hours of play.
If your goal is to make a decent
profit on a daily basis, you may want to consider betting with high units rather than
starting with the table minimum. Starting
with a minimum bet is usually the beginning of a progression or some kind of a parlay
system. Betting straight with the
table’s maximum is where you are aiming for a high profit in a short amount of time.
Let’s say that this maximum on
the outside bets is $1000. Let’s also
say that you will be happy if you could make a profit of $1000 per day or per session. This means that we are fishing for only 1 unit
profit, our unit being $1000 worth.
Now, what kind of system or method
will ensure 1 unit profit without risking say more than 4 units. If you are betting on Red
or Black, the probability of the next bet being either Red or Black is nearly 50%. If the previous decision was a Red, the
probability of the next bet being also a Red is also 50%.
That means that there is a nearly 50% chance that the color will either
repeat or alternate.
If we look at a series of numbers and
their colors, on a choppy state of the table, the colors will alternate more than they
will repeat. And on a streaky state of the
table, the colors will repeat more than they will alternate. Or we can also say, that on a choppy state,
within 10 bets, the color will change more than 5 times.
And on a streaky state, the color will repeat more than 5 times. And this can happen at any stage during those 10
bets.
Once you detect that a table is
streaky and you join while betting on following the previous decision, if you place 10
bets with flat 1 unit at every bet, there is a great chance you will be up by at least 1
unit during those 10 bets, without going less than –4 units, since there will be more
repeating colors than alternating ones.
The same way, if you see that a table
is choppy and you join while betting on the opposite of the previous decision, you will
probably be ahead by at least 1 unit during the next 10 bets without going lower than
–4 units, since there will be more alternating colors than repeating ones.
This is exactly the same way we can
assume that if there are many more people standing to go south on the metro, there will be
at least one more metro going south during the next few ones than going north.
It all boils down to the ability to
detect if a table is choppy or streaky. This
is quite easy to see with Reds and Blacks even over a distance.
Another approach would be to go for a
repeat color once you identify that the choppiness has stopped, or go for the opposite
decision once the streak has ended. As
you may have noticed by now, a table goes from a choppy to a streaky state and vice versa
every now and then. What you could do is to
count and register the number of times a color has repeated and alternated under two
columns on a writing pad. Once the gap
between the repeating and the alternating color starts expanding, it’s time to go
towards the opposite trend, as according to the law of averages, Reds and Blacks should
come up an equal amount of times, or at least the difference should not be too great over
a long run.
Here is an illustration. You come to a roulette table and start writing
down the number of repeats and changes for say 20 spins
Spin
Red/Black Repeat Change Gap
1
R
2
R
1
1
3
B
1
0
4
B
2
1
5
B
3
2
6
R
2
1
7
R
4
2
8
R
5
3
9
R
6
4
10
B
3
3
11
R
4
2
12
B
5
1
13
B
7
2
14
B
8
3
15
R
6
2
16
R
9
3
17
R
10
4
18
B
7
3
19
B
11
4
20
B
12
5
Every time the color repeats you
increment the repeat count and every time the color changes you increment the change count
and you record the gap between those two numbers.
When the gap reaches 5 or more, you
can tell that the table is in a certain streak or chop trend.
In the example above the gap is 5
favoring a streak trend, which is about to change to a chop trend.
This is when I would bet the next 10
bets with 1 unit every time on a change color, that is, on the opposite of the previous
decision. And there probably will be more
changing colors than repeating ones giving you the 1 unit profit that you were looking
for.
If you don’t dare playing with
$1000 unit, try it with $10. The worst you
can lose is $40. If it works well for you,
try it with $100 units. Upgrade as you gain
trust and confidence.
By the way, this system is good for
Baccarat as well, as Mike McGuire, the Baccarat guru states: “The shoe streaks 50% of
the time and chops 50% of the time”. With
the above method while noting down the Player and Banker bets, you can record the streaks
and the chops, calculate their difference and go for the opposite trend.
The Systems Gallery
contains many systems, that took deep thought, research and long tests to develop.
That’s all for this week. Your feedback is welcome.
Best regards,
Izak
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