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Thursday, March 27, 2003
Independence of Roulette Spins
Hello
everyone,
Today's newsletter is brought to you by
the courtesy of my friends at WinMaxx,
a great Roulette research site. It's an article by Marigny de Grilleau
that I found very interesting and here it is with the permission of
WinMaxx:
"IS EVERY ROULETTE SPIN NEW?"
by Marigny de Grilleau  translated from "The gain of one unit on the
even money chances at Roulette and Trente et Quarante"
One can hear that question in every casino everyday. The word
"new" means according to the definition "which one yet did not see".
In this sense each day is a new day. It is quite obvious that people asking
this question do not really mean "new" to express this natural truth.
Their question is badly formulated and surely they mean "new" in the sense
of independent.
Thus they wanted to ask whether each spin is independent of the others, the
previous or following spins. The above question should be asked as follows:
"Are all appearances and are all spins independent?"
In this formulation no wordplay and no wrong interpretations are possible.
Grilleau does not hesitate with a clear answer:
"No, neither the appearances nor the spins can be independent, because
everyone of them is a part of the whole. This whole is arranged and
limited in all its movements and is subject to precise laws."
Each spin, while the ball turns in the wheel, carries in itself a certain
quantity of independence
and a certain quantity of dependence. The independence results from the
following: every time the dealer rolls the ball, it is faced with 18 red and
18 black, 18 even and 18 odd as well as 18 high and 18 low pockets.
Therefore the ball has the same chance to fall in one of
the 36 pockets (we do not consider zero or double zero this time), since
each pocket indicates Red or Black, Even or Odd, High or Low at the same
time.
The dependence results from:
1. the Law of Deviation (Ecart),
2. the Law of Balance (Equilibrium) and
3. the law of the distribution of appearances into different accumulations
or clusters and isolated units
Thus the mathematical truth of the independence of the spins is constantly
in conflict with the statistic truth of the dependence of the spins.
If between two equivalent appearances none, or only a very small deviation
exists, the independence of the two appearances remains retained in their
fight against each other. But if the statistic deviation reaches a certain
size, the size of this deviation more or less limits the independence of
these appearances and spins. In this instant the dependence of the
appearances on the laws of nature demands again its right, by limiting its
freedom for
deviation within the statistic average values, of which these never can free
itself.
In our opinion neither a single spin nor an appearance can be independent in
a roulette permanence of a certain length, for example within 1024 spins.
The dependence of the spins which are affected by chance due to exactly
defined laws, is a fact, which the usual gambler does not understand without
difficulty. And because of this difficulty the gamblers and also the
mathematicians believe in the independence of roulette spins. In reality
each spin and each appearance has its necessary and mandatory function in
the whole of a roulette permanence. Chance does not exist there,
because all effects have their visible or hidden causes.
The dependence of the spins on the laws of nature becomes obvious, if we
analyze a roulette permanence and classify the developed appearances.
However we do not succeed in each case in determining this dependence,
which must be present for all spins, if only small deviations occur, which
do not exceed the average statistical Ecart of 1. We only succeed then,
if we determine the partial return to equilibrium after very strong
deviations greater than a statistical Ecart of 3.
The roulette ball cannot extract itself from the laws of nature. These
laws force it into the pocket, into which it must fall, so that it can
perform the necessary function, which it has to,
in the statistic harmony of the whole permanence  like a note in a score.
Chance can let many obvious, strange features develop before our eyes. But
nevertheless, statistically seen, chance can not repeat these individual
strange things too frequently, like for example a series of 25, which needs
approximately 34 million spins to develop once.
Below is an example of a strong deviation with a value greater than 3 from a
permanence section of Table no. 1, Spielbank Hamburg, 20030201.
The deviation between series and singles on High / Low starts with spin 81
and reaches a value of 3.64 with spin 146 ( 16 series against 1 single).
After spin 146 the sleeping singles form a first cluster and thus indicate a
return to normal.
After 1 isolated series the next cluster of singles appears.
This cluster wins 1 unit, as is the goal of Grilleau: one unit per attack.
As you can see, within the next 23 spins, the singles start to dominate the
permanence and catch up with the previous dominating series.
Z No. H L
81 26 X
82 23 X
83 1 X
84 14 X
85 11 X
86 5 X
87 4 X
88 12 X
89 8 X
90 1 X
91 3 X
92 12 X
93 3 X
94 12 X
95 20 X
96 19 X
97 34 X
98 23 X
99 32 X
100 27 X
101 23 X
102 27 X
103 36 X
104 25 X
105 10 X
106 25 X
107 30 X
108 21 X
109 18 X
110 15 X
111 24 X
112 25 X
113 0 16 X
114 9 X
115 11 X
116 25 X
117 33 X
118 30 X
119 1 X
120 10 X
121 22 X
122 27 X
123 3 X
124 11 X
125 1 X
126 13 X
127 3 X
128 17 X
129 8 X
130 27 X
131 20 X
132 19 X
133 32 X
134 31 X
135 2 X
136 6 X
137 3 X
138 35 X
139 21 X
140 21 X
141 5 X
142 0 16 X
143 7 X
144 23 X
145 23 X
146 30 X 16 vs. 1 = Estat 3.64
147 5 X
148 22 X
149 4 X
150 26 X
151 0 31 X
152 4 X
153 34 X
154 15 X
155 26 X
156 14 X
157 1 X
158 19 X
159 15 X
160 34 X
161 24 X
162 10 X
163 18 X
164 21 X
165 12 X
166 36 X
167 17 X
168 0 30 X
TO BE CONTINUED and you can follow it at
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Wishing you all the best,
Until next week,
Izak
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