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================================================    Thursday, March 25, 2004
 
Gambling Strategy Homework by PerryB

Hello everyone,

This week's newsletter is brought to you by some interesting posts of a friend of mine, PerryB, who has already published quite a few articles in various sites, some of which you can find at: http://www.dicesetter.com/pb/frontline4.htm, which includes a Don't Pass craps strategy that he
devised, as well as a table of the results that were achieved (+ >$2,015) using this
strategy over a two-and-a-half month period from 1-15-2001 to 3-26-2001.  Perry has also contributed his opinions on various gambling-related subjects to many discussion groups over the years, and has achieved a high level of respect in those communities with his experienced and common-sense approach to making money at the casinos. Perry and I have met at the casino to discuss views and strategies and I'm sure you will find his thoughts very interesting.

Here are some highlights:

"I'm sometimes amazed that there are so many out there who are willing to pay for gambling systems and strategies that have occasionally been improperly or insufficiently researched. It's like taking a shortcut at school, and paying someone to do your homework for you. You won’t really learn anything, and can't always be sure that the results will be favorable.

I can foresee potential trouble with any gambling strategy that is based on a relatively small data sampling. This in itself is a shortcut, and can all-too-often be based on skewed results, gathered during an extended non-negative period of play. (Been there - done that.)

While I have no doubt that there are occasions when every gambling system or strategy will work, I am equally sure that they will all fail, either due to player deviation from the prescribed method of play by their own design (or error), or through no other fault than just plain bad luck.

It is for this reason that I gave up long ago on betting strategies based on making frequent bets, and using long, drawn-out progressions. In my opinion, the only thing they ultimately serve to do is make you lose a sizeable percentage of any previously-accumulated profits when "Murphy's Law" rears its ugly head, and makes its inevitable appearance.

My own research into Sic-bo is relatively recent, spanning only (at this writing) the past 5 months. During this time, in an effort to formulate a winning strategy, I have personally recorded more than 21,000 Sic-bo rolls at the Casino de Montreal (currently still ongoing). Even after such a large sampling of raw data, and despite a certain degree of guarded optimism about some things that I've been looking into, I still don't feel confident enough to get involved for any serious money.

Just for comparison purposes, after more than 30 years as an occasional player, not long ago I completed an in-depth research project on craps that lasted about two years, and only produced some long-term positive-expectancy betting strategies after about 40,000 Pass and Don’t Pass decisions had been recorded.

Short-term results don’t mean a thing. Anything in gambling is possible over the space of an hour, a day, a week, or a month. It's only in the long term of any gambling strategy that the good, the bad, and the ugly will all appear. Only then can we analyze what it's really worth. And whether you like it or not, that takes quite a bit of time, and personal homework.

Up till now, I have enjoyed very much being a casual observer of the LTW forum, and reading the various points of view on just basically what many diverse individuals feel is required in order to succeed at gambling.

My own philosophy and approach to the gaming tables doesn't require risking anywhere near a 1,000 unit bankroll. Instead, rather than embarking on the path of making frequent bets, my own gambling strategies are based on making much fewer (and more selective) bets, with very low stop-loss limits for each session played. This way, my bankroll is ultimately better-spent making profits after an easy recovery from a small loss, as opposed to spending hours, days or weeks trying to recover from a big one.

A small sampling is not truly representative of what can happen to any gambling strategy at any time, and that is BANKROLL MELTDOWN.

Over the years, I have run various casino gambling strategies and conservative money-management plans at most games, and no matter how small you cut your losses, you inevitably run into an extended period of time when you just can't win a bet to save your life. The only saving grace at a time like this is that losses are very small, and can be recovered much more easily than a long string of bigger losses.

I believe that this is one of the stronger points for any long-term gambling business plan, and I hope that you've incorporated this philosophy into your systems.

When it comes to any kind of gambling, my personal motto speaks for itself: "Control your losses, and the wins will take care of themselves."

For whatever it's worth, here's my two-cents' worth on the subject of bet selections and money management.

Bet selections should be very selective, choosing situations where certain decisions perform with consistent results, and still come up often enough to make bets at regular intervals.

Here’s an example: at baccarat, betting on the player's hand against 4 consecutive bank wins, but only after there has already been a series of 3 in a row. If you win, stop, and wait for the same situation to come up again before making your next bet. If you lose, also stop, and wait for the same situation to come up again before trying to recover your loss. (Don't chase your loss. Small losses are easier to recover than big ones.)

This is more selective than betting against 4 bank wins in a row after 2 have already occurred. In effect, you are betting that a series of bank wins will not exceed 3, but giving up only a virtual loss when the 3rd win is made, and losing only a 1-unit bet every time a series of bank wins goes to 4 in a row, or more.

A Martingale betting progression may be used in this type of situation, but should not exceed 2 bets. ($10 - $20) Going any further ($40) risks too many more $10 base units, and makes recovering them quite a task after a complete 3-bet loss or two.

Just as reasonable stop-loss limits for the day should be religiously applied, stop-win discipline is just as important if you want to come out an overall winner. A couple of baccarat players that I am familiar with are quite content to stop betting for the day once they are ahead by 2 units. One plays with $50 units, and the other is comfortable with $100 bets. They also quit betting for the day when they have lost not more than 3 or 4 flat bets in a row. (Their win / loss ratio is very high.)

Just as all betting strategies will win, they will also fail. It’s easy when they win. But when they don’t, what you decide to do will dictate whether you'll end up being an overall winner or loser. The choice is yours.

I have been following Sic-bo for only about 4 months now, and have personally recorded the results of more than 18,000 rolls, recording just about exclusively the high and low totals, as well as triples. While this may be considered by many to be a small sampling, some interesting things have still come to light.

The behavior of these even-money bets bears a great similarity to to the performance of just about all the even-money bets at (single-zero) roulette. However, the speed of Sic-bo makes it much easier to accurately record actual results of either long or short sessions, without relying on writing down the results from (occasionally-unreliable) recording devices incorporated into the roulette wheels at some tables. Also, the low minimum bets at Sic-bo (usually $5) make it ideal for trying out various betting strategies without taking out a second mortgage on the farm.

As far as the math of Sic-bo is concerned, there are 216 possible combinations that can be made with 3 dice (6 x 6 x 6 = 216), with 108 having a total of not more than 10, and 108 adding up to 11 and higher. Taking out the 3 losing triples for each side, this comes to 105 possible winners out of 216 for either high or low, or 48.61% each, with the 6 triples out of 216 accounting for the remaining 2.78%.

This compares very closely to single-zero roulette's 18 out of 37, or 48.65% for all the even-money bets, and 1 out of 37, or 2.70% for the zero.

By the way, for those who may be interested, after 18,235 Sic-bo rolls, there were 8,901 high (48.81%), 8,854 low (48.55%), and 480 triples (2.63%) recorded from 9-25-03 to 2-01-04.

The following is a great way to try out Sic-bo for fun, and see just how the game works. It loads quickly, and is very easy to play. (If I can do it, anyone can.)

When the game loads completely, make sure that your VIEW is set on "Full Screen".

http://www.win4real.com/javagames/forfun/sicbo.html

I would be happy to reply to any interested inquiries on the subject of Sic-bo and any other subject at the LTW discussion forum."

PerryB

Thanking Perry for his great contribution.

Wishing you all the best,
Until next week,
Izak

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