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Thursday, March 18, 2004
Conceptual Design of Money Management System - Part II
There have been a few further debates on
the conceptual design of Money Management System published in
last week's newsletter, posted by Lou E.
from the LTW
discussion forum. So, we will continue with that discussion this
Here is how Christian has been
implementing this system:
400 unit bankroll
Each unit = $1
20 "production lines", each line using Labouchère
The goal is over a 100 day period of time, to win around 55 bets and lose 45
bets, at average odds of -110, FOR EACH LINE. So over a 100 day period of
time, I should be producing 40 units profit, per line...and playing 20
lines, this comes out to 800 units profit for a 100 day period of time. This
averages out to 8 units profit per day, however some days appear to "lose"
while others appear to "win" but after 100 days of play, it should average
out to around 800 units of profit.
I am using my own method of producing plays, that seem to win 50% - 55% on
average, as well as getting a couple of free plays off the internet that
seem to win very well long-term.
I play each line as if it is in its own unique world. In other words, I
assign 1 play to each line every day and bet according to what the
Cancellation method would suggest for that line (based on that line's unique
win/loss streak pattern). Every line is considered its own game, sort of
like if I were playing Cancellation for baccarat, but playing multiple games
at the same time.
The biggest problem I have run into in testing, is that many lines will win
in a certain day, and a few are losing, but some of the losers are in the
middle of a losing streak, lets say losing 4 or 5 in a row and these lines
are clearing out the profit I am making that day...so even though I might go
10-5 that day, I actually end up losing money that particular day, because
the big plays might lose and it cancels out the wins from the winning lines.
I like the idea of placing deep losses vertically across all the lines, but
my question is, doesn't this end up being more of an averaged flat bet
system, as all lines are increased accordingly...it "feels" as if we are
chasing losses. My limited amount of testing seems to show that this does
not help much because even though we are clearing a deep losing line and
resetting it, those losses are placed on other lines that seem to start
losing and it feels like we never get anywhere.
I was very successful using only one line, I made a 34% return over a 2 week
period of time but that was only using 1 play and 1 line.
So Lou my question is this: Did you experience this in the beginning as
well? And even if you don't spread the losses out across all lines, were you
still able to grow your bankroll? How much better was it when you started
spreading the losses across all lines?
Has anyone else taken a look at this method and are they experiencing
VERSION 2.0: ELIMINATION SYSTEM
Here is another version of the method that I am considering. It is the same
system, with one major change.
Each unit = $1
Each Production Line uses Cancellation
The goal is still to win 1 unit per line.
Here is the twist: Lets say you start with 20 lines. Let's assume on Day 1,
you go 10-10. So the 10 lines that won, have won their goal of 1 unit each.
Day 2: You have 10 lines remaining, that lost. Let's say that they now look
Line 1: 1, 1.10
Line 2: 1, 1.10
Line 3: 1, 1.10
Line 4: 1, 1.10
Line 5: 1, 1.10
Line 6: 1, 1.10
Line 7: 1, 1.10
Line 8: 1, 1.10
Line 9: 1, 1.10
Line 10: 1, 1.10
The next day, you only play the lines that did NOT win...and you use
Cancellation. We will assume that again you go 50% and you only win the 1st
5 lines (each of which reach their 1 unit goal), the last 5 lose. You now
have 5 lines remaining that look like this:
Line 1: 1, 1.10, 2.31
Line 2: 1, 1.10, 2.31
Line 3: 1, 1.10, 2.31
Line 4: 1, 1.10, 2.31
Line 5: 1, 1.10, 2.31
Lets now say that you have a GREAT day (We are on Day 3) and go 4-1.
The 1st line lost and looks like: 1, 1.10, 2.31, 3.641
The other 4 lines look like: 1.10
So on Day 4, lets assume the final 4 lines each win their profit and you are
left with Line 1 which looks like: 1, 1.10, 2.31, 3.641, 5.1051
On Day 5 you will wager to win 6.1051 units and you finally win.
Let's say that you finally clear the line on Day 9. You have now won 20
units profit in 9 days. This does not seem to win nearly as much money as
the "Full Regular Version", where every line is in full productions and is
being used to try and produce profits, but it seems like it grows quicker,
because you aren't seeing small profits getting erased by large losses."
Lou's answer to this adaptation was the
"I'm glad to hear that something is
working for you, but that's not exactly what I am doing.
First, this is not a Labouchère,
it is my own System. Labouchère
starts with a series of numbers, say 5, 7, 10, whatever, and cancels them
out two at a time, adding the losing wager to the end of the line.
I am starting with 1 number. I do, however, use a cancellation system of
sorts, and have made several refinements.
One of the basic premises is that every win gets two -- either two wins, a
win and cancel a loss, or cancel two losses. This way, breakeven is one win
more than 33.3% if you start with a loss.
So, my first wager is not 1 unit, it is 2 units (to get two wins, or two
So, if losing, the series (forget the vig for the moment), would look like:
1 (initial stake), 2 (first wager), then I start adding the first and last
numbers to get the next wager, so 3, then 4, etc. assuming you keep losing.
If you have a series of 1, 2, 3 and win, you cancel out the 1 and the 3 and
are left with the 2. However, since every win gets two, the next wager would
be a 3 (reinserting the 1 initial unit, so that the series of 2 would become
1, 2), so that every win gets two. Again, different than the Labouchère.
The really significant difference though is that I place losing wages
_vertically_ as well as horizontally. Starting with 1 unit, a 200 unit
bankroll would be busted with 18 losses in a row -- the chances of which are
literally less than 1 in a million. However, 2 rows getting 18 losses in a
row will literally happen less than 1 in a TRILLION! Since almost all money
management systems were created for casino games, this has not been
possible. (There is the possibility with Roulette as previously discussed,
however, the rows would not be entirely independent, as there would be a
correlation between the results; playing Roulette at multiple tables
simultaneously would work.)
The major benefit of using sports wagering for this system is that you can
have multiple rows going simultaneously with independent results. The
significance of this is truly something to ponder, as that is what makes
this unique and superior to other systems. So, if we have the following:
Row 1 - 1, 2 (L), 3 (L)
Row 2 - 1, 2 (W), 2 (W)
So, instead of having:
Row 1 - 1, 2, 3
Row 2 - 1
We would have
Row 1 - 1, 2
Row 2 - 1, 3
If you want to get even further refined, (I use an Excel spreadsheet to
calculate this), I then average every number after the 1 initial stake, so
that the series would be:
Row 1 - 1, 2.5
Row 2 - 1, 2.5 (and the next wager would be 3.5 for each)
While the total wager for both rows would still be 5 units, the risk of one
row getting long (with higher unit wagers) as Christian experienced becomes
far less. Therefore, I would recommend either a source of multiple plays per
day (3 minimum, 5 or more preferred), OR, grouping the single source free
play picks together in groups of 5 to 8.
Summary of Lou's System,
1) every win gets two (or if using the
averaging technique, to be technically correct, an average of two)
2) canceling out two with a win lowers
the chance of a busted bankroll
3) a slow progression (slower with the
averaging technique) of units wagered after a loss
4) DRAMATICALLY lower chance of a busted
"In the second line at the end of the 3rd day, yes, it gets reset, but to 1
initial unit, not 2. The next wager is not 2 because we vertically
reposition prior to making the determination of what to wager, so the second
line is 1, 3 with the 3 dropping down from the first line.
Also, the only numbers that get averaged are the losing wagers, not the
initial stake. So the first line is 1, 2 and the second line is 1, 3. We
take the 3 and the 2, average them to get 2.5, so the lines are now both 1,
2.5 and the next wager for each is 3.5."
Thanking both Lou and Christian for their valuable
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