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================================================    Thursday, March 18, 2004
 
Conceptual Design of Money Management System - Part II

Hello everyone,

There have been a few further debates on the conceptual design of Money Management System published in last week's newsletter,  posted by Lou E. from the LTW discussion forum.  So, we will continue with that discussion this week.

Here is how Christian has been implementing this system:

400 unit bankroll
Each unit = $1
20 "production lines", each line using Labouchère Cancellation Method

The goal is over a 100 day period of time, to win around 55 bets and lose 45 bets, at average odds of -110, FOR EACH LINE. So over a 100 day period of time, I should be producing 40 units profit, per line...and playing 20 lines, this comes out to 800 units profit for a 100 day period of time. This averages out to 8 units profit per day, however some days appear to "lose" while others appear to "win" but after 100 days of play, it should average out to around 800 units of profit.

I am using my own method of producing plays, that seem to win 50% - 55% on average, as well as getting a couple of free plays off the internet that seem to win very well long-term.

I play each line as if it is in its own unique world. In other words, I assign 1 play to each line every day and bet according to what the Cancellation method would suggest for that line (based on that line's unique win/loss streak pattern). Every line is considered its own game, sort of like if I were playing Cancellation for baccarat, but playing multiple games at the same time.

The biggest problem I have run into in testing, is that many lines will win in a certain day, and a few are losing, but some of the losers are in the middle of a losing streak, lets say losing 4 or 5 in a row and these lines are clearing out the profit I am making that day...so even though I might go 10-5 that day, I actually end up losing money that particular day, because the big plays might lose and it cancels out the wins from the winning lines.

I like the idea of placing deep losses vertically across all the lines, but my question is, doesn't this end up being more of an averaged flat bet system, as all lines are increased accordingly...it "feels" as if we are chasing losses. My limited amount of testing seems to show that this does not help much because even though we are clearing a deep losing line and resetting it, those losses are placed on other lines that seem to start losing and it feels like we never get anywhere.

I was very successful using only one line, I made a 34% return over a 2 week period of time but that was only using 1 play and 1 line.

So Lou my question is this: Did you experience this in the beginning as well? And even if you don't spread the losses out across all lines, were you still able to grow your bankroll? How much better was it when you started spreading the losses across all lines?

Has anyone else taken a look at this method and are they experiencing similar results?

Christian

VERSION 2.0: ELIMINATION SYSTEM

Here is another version of the method that I am considering. It is the same system, with one major change.

400 Units
Each unit = $1
Each Production Line uses Cancellation
The goal is still to win 1 unit per line.

Here is the twist: Lets say you start with 20 lines. Let's assume on Day 1, you go 10-10. So the 10 lines that won, have won their goal of 1 unit each.

Day 2: You have 10 lines remaining, that lost. Let's say that they now look like this:

Line 1: 1, 1.10
Line 2: 1, 1.10
Line 3: 1, 1.10
Line 4: 1, 1.10
Line 5: 1, 1.10
Line 6: 1, 1.10
Line 7: 1, 1.10
Line 8: 1, 1.10
Line 9: 1, 1.10
Line 10: 1, 1.10

The next day, you only play the lines that did NOT win...and you use Cancellation. We will assume that again you go 50% and you only win the 1st 5 lines (each of which reach their 1 unit goal), the last 5 lose. You now have 5 lines remaining that look like this:

Line 1: 1, 1.10, 2.31
Line 2: 1, 1.10, 2.31
Line 3: 1, 1.10, 2.31
Line 4: 1, 1.10, 2.31
Line 5: 1, 1.10, 2.31

Lets now say that you have a GREAT day (We are on Day 3) and go 4-1.

The 1st line lost and looks like: 1, 1.10, 2.31, 3.641

The other 4 lines look like: 1.10

So on Day 4, lets assume the final 4 lines each win their profit and you are left with Line 1 which looks like: 1, 1.10, 2.31, 3.641, 5.1051

On Day 5 you will wager to win 6.1051 units and you finally win.

Let's say that you finally clear the line on Day 9. You have now won 20 units profit in 9 days. This does not seem to win nearly as much money as the "Full Regular Version", where every line is in full productions and is being used to try and produce profits, but it seems like it grows quicker, because you aren't seeing small profits getting erased by large losses."

Lou's answer to this adaptation was the following:

"I'm glad to hear that something is working for you, but that's not exactly what I am doing.

First, this is not a Labouchère, it is my own System. Labouchère starts with a series of numbers, say 5, 7, 10, whatever, and cancels them out two at a time, adding the losing wager to the end of the line.

I am starting with 1 number. I do, however, use a cancellation system of sorts, and have made several refinements.

One of the basic premises is that every win gets two -- either two wins, a win and cancel a loss, or cancel two losses. This way, breakeven is one win more than 33.3% if you start with a loss.

So, my first wager is not 1 unit, it is 2 units (to get two wins, or two initial stakes).

So, if losing, the series (forget the vig for the moment), would look like:

1 (initial stake), 2 (first wager), then I start adding the first and last numbers to get the next wager, so 3, then 4, etc. assuming you keep losing.

If you have a series of 1, 2, 3 and win, you cancel out the 1 and the 3 and are left with the 2. However, since every win gets two, the next wager would be a 3 (reinserting the 1 initial unit, so that the series of 2 would become 1, 2), so that every win gets two. Again, different than the Labouchère.

The really significant difference though is that I place losing wages _vertically_ as well as horizontally. Starting with 1 unit, a 200 unit bankroll would be busted with 18 losses in a row -- the chances of which are literally less than 1 in a million. However, 2 rows getting 18 losses in a row will literally happen less than 1 in a TRILLION! Since almost all money management systems were created for casino games, this has not been possible. (There is the possibility with Roulette as previously discussed, however, the rows would not be entirely independent, as there would be a correlation between the results; playing Roulette at multiple tables simultaneously would work.)

The major benefit of using sports wagering for this system is that you can have multiple rows going simultaneously with independent results. The significance of this is truly something to ponder, as that is what makes this unique and superior to other systems. So, if we have the following:

Row 1 - 1, 2 (L), 3 (L)
Row 2 - 1, 2 (W), 2 (W)

So, instead of having:

Row 1 - 1, 2, 3
Row 2 - 1

We would have

Row 1 - 1, 2
Row 2 - 1, 3

If you want to get even further refined, (I use an Excel spreadsheet to calculate this), I then average every number after the 1 initial stake, so that the series would be:

Row 1 - 1, 2.5
Row 2 - 1, 2.5 (and the next wager would be 3.5 for each)

While the total wager for both rows would still be 5 units, the risk of one row getting long (with higher unit wagers) as Christian experienced becomes far less. Therefore, I would recommend either a source of multiple plays per day (3 minimum, 5 or more preferred), OR, grouping the single source free play picks together in groups of 5 to 8.

Summary of Lou's System,

1) every win gets two (or if using the averaging technique, to be technically correct, an average of two)

2) canceling out two with a win lowers the chance of a busted bankroll

3) a slow progression (slower with the averaging technique) of units wagered after a loss

4) DRAMATICALLY lower chance of a busted bankroll.

Regards,
Lou E."

"In the second line at the end of the 3rd day, yes, it gets reset, but to 1 initial unit, not 2. The next wager is not 2 because we vertically reposition prior to making the determination of what to wager, so the second line is 1, 3 with the 3 dropping down from the first line.

Also, the only numbers that get averaged are the losing wagers, not the initial stake. So the first line is 1, 2 and the second line is 1, 3. We take the 3 and the 2, average them to get 2.5, so the lines are now both 1, 2.5 and the next wager for each is 3.5."

Thanking both Lou and Christian for their valuable input.

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Wishing you all the best,
Until next week,
Izak

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