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==============================================   Thursday, July 25, 2002
 
Can One Make Money Playing Roulette?

Hello everyone,

This is a question often asked by fellow gamblers.  I had an interesting conversation about this subject with one Let's Talk Winning customer and having received his permission, I would like to share it with you all. 

"Hello Izak,

I'll try to explain the reason of my asking. A few months ago I decided to try soccer betting and roulette or with other words to try my "luck". Unfortunately, I never had much luck before
and that made me try to explore as much as possible the ways to succeed without it and earning some money at the end (I guess earning money is the main reason most people play, isn't that true?). I read some books, visited a lot of homepages. I learned there about the self discipline, the money management, bankrolls, etc. I decided that I have money that I could afford to lose and put aside about $1200 to play with. As the summer is not very
good for soccer betting I began with roulette. I don't need to say that my idea was/is not to lose my money, but to try to make them at least $2000 till the end of the summer and to learn as much as possible.

My first experience was at Playboy casino where I lost my first $100 for about 15 minutes, the so called system I used was very bad, although I'm not sure about the software. Then I deposited some money at William Hill and Intercasino, in the beginning of April, and I still don't have my permanent pin for my Intercasino account! Now, I don't even receive replies to my e-mails asking for it!  So, in general my first experience was not good at all. I wasn't desperate and I continued. Then I visited more sites, bought some cheap $30-$40 systems which didn't work at all. At this point I read a lot of opinions that winning systems don't exist and that nobody could ever win with roulette. I must confess that at this point I was about to leave.

But I visited your site and it gave me some optimism. In fact, I had read a lot of things about you and your systems, a lot of them bad but the most were good - that you are a reputable researcher, honest man and gentleman. I really liked your page, the way the systems were described and the lack of anonymousness (which most of the other pages have).  I also liked your answers to the people who were yelling at you and I thought the people who respect you must be right. And I began to think about LTW as a trustful source about gambling. Time will show if that's true or not, but I do hope I'm right in my opinion.

So, I liked two of the systems - The Relaxed and the On-line (in fact I liked more, but I decided to start from one of them because of the money). My idea was to buy one, earn some money with it, get some experience and then invest into another one. After a few attempts I bought the On-line system. Maybe you remember the story. I think of me as a low roller and I would be more than happy to get about $20-50 per day as a beginning (as a beginning because I'm greedy as most of the people :) ).

So, at my first visit at Lasseters I earned $20 (20 units) using On-line system 1 and I quit. The following days I had some more sessions.  Most of them not very positive and I wrote you a letter, you answered me and we are here now.

So, I guess that's the whole story, told as to a priest. The reason I'm writing you all this is because I need some help from a person with more experience and a good will.  You definitely have the first and I think you have the second as well.

And my first question is: Is it possible to earn money playing with roulette?

If the answer is 'yes' which is the best system according to your opinion. I mean, the one that will suit my style as a low roller and person who doesn't believe his luck and don't want to risk much ??? Is that possible??? :(

I guess you like all of them, but may be some of them are better. I really do not want to offend you but I heard even from people who like you that some of your systems are not very good and others are much better. They mentioned Reward and Sparkling Dozens as very good. Of course, I realize that this is their opinion and I don't have mine as I'm not acquainted with your systems. That's why I think you are the only one person who could give
me the right answers. I read the description of Reward system again and, yes, it sounds really promising, I like it also the last time. But I couldn't find anything about the needed bankroll and the loss limit. You know, I really like these things as they prevent me from getting in the hole...

And my last question is what does it mean for a particular system to win 95% of the time winning 4 units and 5% of the time losing 77 units?  Does it mean from 100 spins I'll lose 5 times or what?

In conclusion, I must say that your answer is very important for me as more than a half of my money already disappeared and I don't have place for many more mistakes if I want to be in the game! Also, no matter what your answer is I'll still think of you as a person who
I respect and who is definitely a professional in what he is doing.

Sincerely yours"

"Thank you for your long explanation of your intentions.

Yes, it is possible to make some money with Roulette. That's why my site is there and that's what I do to make a living.

It takes a lot of knowledge, discipline and to know how to manage your money. It may take to apply a few systems to take advantage of specific situations such as favorable conditions for a particular system and to know when to switch from one to another. Most importantly to quit for the day when you are ahead or when you have reached your loss limit for that day.

Using only one system continuously and on the same table increases one's exposure to the casino advantage. So, no matter how good the system is, on the long run, the system will fail at one point. The question then becomes if you were way ahead when this failure point has occurred, to keep you ahead or has the loss wiped out all your winnings so far and more. That's why I agree it's important to know the win/loss ratios of every single system.

Now, what does it mean for a particular system to have a winning session 95% of the time that gives you 4 unit profit versus a losing session 5% of the time losing you 77 units, when a session takes between 1 and 4 spins. It definitely does not mean that in 100 spins you will lose 5 times. If that was the case, the system would be an absolute loser.

The probabilities is almost like the weather forecast. If the weatherman tells you there is a 95% chance of showers today, I would make sure to take an umbrella. With this probability, it usually rains. If he told you, there is a 99% chance of showers, you can almost absolutely make sure you will have some rain today.

So if a particular system wins 95% of the time, when you play it, it may not have a losing run at all, or you may encounter one in a rare occasion. But, we're talking sessions and not spins. That means you will win 95 sessions versus losing 5 sessions within 100 sessions of play in average. In terms of profit, this means you will make 95 X 4 units (380 units) versus losing 5 X 77 units (385 units) on the long run, which proves the point that using a system
continuously will yield to the 5.26% casino advantage. That is why we quit when we are ahead, if the system is not able to produce positive units when played extensively.

How is that possible? Within 100 sessions of play, there will be 95% winning ones and your profits will go up and down crossing the zero line either way, up and down. What we can be sure is with this rate and probability that we will be ahead at a certain point. That's why
we set a profit goal, say 20 units. And once we reach that profit goal, we leave for that day, that table or that casino.

Relaxed Roulette for instance has a different way of managing and even building a solid bankroll. You aim for 5 units per day. You start with small amounts of units and gradually you increase your betting units. At one point, you put a certain profit on the side, that you never touch, and then play from your winnings only. Should you lose in the future, you have already secured your initial profit.

Reward is an excellent system. In fact it never loses (!). However, you need a substantial amount of bankroll to withstand a winning session that can last for 30-40 spins. If you don't have that kind of a bankroll, then you work with profit and loss limits and still manage to come out ahead.

Sparkling Dozens is the best way to bet on 2 dozens simultaneously, both from the betting selection and the type of betting amounts and progression. There are 4 great systems in there that took quite a lot of ingenuity to make profits.

At times you can use system combinations. For instance, Relaxed Roulette also bets on 2 dozens and uses and excellent betting selection. One can use Relaxed Roulette's betting selection with Sparkling Dozens' progression to have a good winner.

And, for the last verdict, it is possible to make profits with roulette if one has a way to skip the failing runs that cause a system to lose money.  This is fully explained in the Derivative Method in one of my newsletters: (http://www.letstalkwinning.com/winalert_February14_2002.htm)

This sets a whole new scenario to win/loss ratios, as losing runs are totally eliminated! The Derivative Method can be combined with ANY system to convert it into a winning system on the long run.

You can read about it in the link I provided and please do not hesitate to ask any questions if you have any. It is my pleasure to answer you to the best of my ability. I would like even to post our conversation in one of the upcoming newsletters, if I can have your permission.

Best regards,
Izak Matatya"

Wishing you all the best,
Until next week,
Izak

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