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=================================================    Thursday, July 24, 2003
 
A Stress Free Sports Betting Method

Hello everyone,

How would you like to be able to place your bets on a particular game and no matter which team wins, there would be a very high probability for you to make a profit?  That would eliminate any stress you may have when you bet on your favorite team to win, wouldn't it?

Is it at all possible?  This is what we will discuss at this week's newsletter.

Let's first observe a few MLB games.  Let's take a look at today's games and lines as displayed at Canbet - an extremely reliable sports book, very highly recommended in terms of odds, customer support, timely payouts, etc. (games start times are GMT as in UK):

951 04:35 PM Pittsburgh Pirates v Cincinnati Reds
Action +106 -115
Listed Both D'Amico Jeff +106 Haynes Jimmy -115
Listed Away D'Amico Jeff +106 -115
Listed Home +106 Haynes Jimmy -115
Run Line +1.5 -192 -1.5 +165
Totals Over 10 +100 Under 10 -115

953 05:05 PM Florida Marlins v Atlanta Braves
Action +151 -165
Listed Both Penny Brad +151 Ortiz Russ -165
Listed Away Penny Brad +151 -165
Listed Home +151 Ortiz Russ -165
Run Line +1.5 -138 -1.5 +120
Totals Over 9 -107 Under 9 -107

955 06:20 PM Philadelphia Phillies v Chicago Cubs
Action +146 -159
Listed Both Padilla Vicente +146 Wood Kerry -159
Listed Away Padilla Vicente +146 -159
Listed Home +146 Wood Kerry -159

957 07:10 PM Colorado Rockies v Los Angeles Dodgers
Action +178 -195
Listed Both Chacon Shawn +178 Brown Kevin -195
Listed Away Chacon Shawn +178 -195
Listed Home +178 Brown Kevin -195
Run Line +1.5 -121 -1.5 +105
Totals Over 7 +113 Under 7 -130

959 07:35 PM Arizona Diamondbacks v San Francisco Giants
Action -129 +119
Listed Both Webb Brandon -129 Zerbe Chad +119
Listed Away Webb Brandon -129 +119
Listed Home -129 Zerbe Chad +119
Run Line -1.5 +130 +1.5 -150
Totals Over 8.5 +110 Under 8.5 -127

961 11:05 PM New York Mets v Montreal Expos
Action +147 -160
Listed Both Glavine Tom +147 Hernandez Livan -160
Listed Away Glavine Tom +147 -160
Listed Home +147 Hernandez Livan -160
Run Line +1.5 -156 -1.5 +135
Totals Over 8.5 -107 Under 8.5 -107

Friday, 25 Jul 2003 - (GMT)

963 12:05 PM Houston Astros v Milwaukee Brewers
Action -120 +111
Listed Both Villone Ron -120 Sheets Ben +111
Listed Away Villone Ron -120 +111
Listed Home -120 Sheets Ben +111
Run Line -1.5 +134 +1.5 -155
Totals Over 8.5 -105 Under 8.5 -110

Thursday, 24 Jul 2003 - (GMT)

965 05:05 PM Baltimore Orioles v New York Yankees
Action +183 -200
Listed Both Ponson Sidney +183 Clemens Roger -200
Listed Away Ponson Sidney +183 -200
Listed Home +183 Clemens Roger -200
Run Line +1.5 -105 -1.5 -110
Totals Over 9 -105 Under 9 -110

967 05:05 PM Tampa Bay Devil Rays v Boston Red Sox
Action +178 -195
Listed Both Zambrano Victor +178 Mendoza Ramiro -195
Listed Away Zambrano Victor +178 -195
Listed Home +178 Mendoza Ramiro -195
Run Line +1.5 -105 -1.5 -110
Totals Over 10.5 +100 Under 10.5 -115

969 05:05 PM Kansas City Royals v Minnesota Twins
Action +122 -133
Listed Both May Darrell +122 Radke Brad -133
Listed Away May Darrell +122 -133
Listed Home +122 Radke Brad -133
Run Line +1.5 -176 -1.5 +152
Totals Over 9 +113 Under 9 -130

971 11:05 PM Chicago White Sox v Toronto Blue Jays
Action +130 -141
Listed Both Garland Jon +130 Escobar Kelvim -141
Listed Away Garland Jon +130 -141
Listed Home +130 Escobar Kelvim -141
Run Line +1.5 -162 -1.5 +140
Totals Over 9.5 -110 Under 9.5 -105

973 11:05 PM Detroit Tigers v Cleveland Indians
Action +196 -215
Listed Both Cornejo Nate +196 Sabathia C.C. -215
Listed Away Cornejo Nate +196 -215
Listed Home +196 Sabathia C.C. -215
Run Line +1.5 -110 -1.5 -105
Totals Over 9 +113 Under 9 -130

Friday, 25 Jul 2003 - (GMT)

975 12:05 AM Anaheim Angels v Texas Rangers
Action -123 +113
Listed Both Appier Kevin -123 Benoit Joaquin +113
Listed Away Appier Kevin -123 +113
Listed Home -123 Benoit Joaquin +113
Run Line -1.5 +126 +1.5 -145
Totals Over 11 -120 Under 11 +104

977 02:05 AM Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners
Action -101 -107
Listed Both Mulder Mark -101 Meche Gil -107
Listed Away Mulder Mark -101 -107
Listed Home -101 Meche Gil -107
Run Line +1.5 -210 -1.5 +180
Totals Over 7.5 -105 Under 7.5 -110

Let's take a look at the odds of the second game:  Florida Marlins vs Atlanta Braves.
If you pick the favorite Atlanta, you are risking 165 to win 100, as the line is -165 on the action or listed bet.  If you pick the underdog Florida Marlins, you are risking 100 to make 151, as the line is +151.  Let's see what happens if you bet one unit on both sides.  If Atlanta wins, you break even, as you win 100 from that bet and lose the 100 on Florida.   If Florida wins, you make 151 on that bet and lose 165 on Atlanta and you end up in a loss of 14.

Since Atlanta is a favorite, it has a -165 line.  However, if you take a look at the run line type of bet, Atlanta's line becomes +120.  It suddenly becomes an underdog.  The issue is that Atlanta has to win with a point spread of 2 for the run line to win. 

So now if you place one unit on the underdog Florida with a +151 line and one unit on Atlanta's run line with a +120 line, you will make a profit, no matter which team wins.  Say you place 100 on each side.  If Florida wins, you make 51 and if Atlanta wins you make 20.  If you place $1000 on each side, if Florida wins, you make $510 and if Atlanta wins, you make $200.  The only catch is that if Atlanta wins, it has to cover the 1.5 spread. 

The only time you would be losing 2 units on such a bet is if Atlanta wins with only 1 point spread.  It may happen, but with low probability.   What we need to do is to check statistics on past games and determine a percentage of such a thing happening.  If this occurs less than 10% of the time, then this method may prove to be a long run winner.  If not, you may end up losing 2 units too often, which will override your multiple wins of 0.2 to 0.6 units. 

You could use today's results as a little test.

What you would be looking for is opportunities to bet on both sides of a game, provided the run line of a favorite becomes an underdog versus the already underdog team.

In today's games, I can see the following opportunities:

1) Pittsburgh Pirates +106 and Cincinnati Reds - run line +165
2) Florida Marlins +151 and Atlanta Braves, run line +120 (a good one)
3) Colorado Rockies +178 and Los Angeles Dodgers, run line +105
4) Arizona Diamondbacks, run line +130 and San Francisco Giants +119
5) New York Mets +147 and Montreal Expos, run line +135 (a very good one)
6) Houston Astros, run line +134 and Milwaukee Brewers +111

Note that the game between Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees is not an opportunity as the run line of the favorite NY -200 is still a favorite -110.  Again, you're looking for a favorite to become a dog, when you bet it as a run line bet.  This is also not the case with the games:
- Tampa Bay Devil Rays v Boston Red Sox
- Detroit Tigers v Cleveland Indians
- Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners

7) Kansas City Royals +122 and Minnesota Twins, run line +152 (a good one)
8) Chicago White Sox +130 and Toronto Blue Jays, run line +140 (a very good one)
9) Anaheim Angels, run line +126 and Texas Rangers +113

So we found 9 opportunities, out of which 2 (nos. 2 and 7) are designated to be good ones, as the smallest amount to be won  is .22 units and 2 very good ones (nos. 5 and 8), as the smallest amount to be won is .30 units.

Take no. 5 for instance.  You bet $100 on NY Mets and $100 on Montreal Expos.  You sit back, watch the game totally relaxed as you don't care which side wins.  If NY Mets wins you cash $47.  If Montreal wins, you cash $35, provided Montreal wins with more than 1.5 spread.

Let's see what happens by the end of the day.

By the way, this idea was brought to you by the sports betting genius: Brad Turner, who operates SportsPicksOnline and captains the Special Bonus Program - ASBP.

Now that the games are over, let’s take a look at the results:

1) Pittsburgh Pirates +106 (7) and Cincinnati Reds - run line +165 (5) = +0.06 unit
2) Florida Marlins +151 (2) and Atlanta Braves, run line +120 (5) (a good one) = +0.20 unit
3) Colorado Rockies +178 (0) and Los Angeles Dodgers, run line +105 (1) = -2 units
4) Arizona Diamondbacks, run line +130 (2) and San Francisco Giants +119 (3) = +0.19 unit
5) New York Mets +147 (1) and Montreal Expos, run line +135 (5) (a very good one) = +0.35 unit
6) Houston Astros, run line +134 (1) and Milwaukee Brewers +111 (2) = +0.11 unit
7) Kansas City Royals +122 (2) and Minnesota Twins, run line +152 (6) (a good one) = +0.52 unit
8) Chicago White Sox +130 (4) and Toronto Blue Jays, run line +140 (3) (a very good one) = +0.30 unit
9) Anaheim Angels, run line +126 (10) and Texas Rangers +113 (6) = +0.26 unit

If you had placed bets on all 9 opportunities, you would have ended up just about even.  Notice that 8 out of 9 bets produced a profit and only one (no. 3) lost 2 units.

Had you selected only the good and the very good ones as recommended, you would have ended up with a score of 1.37 units.  With $100 betting units, this would mean a profit $137 for today, July 24, 2003.

Wishing you all the best,
Until next week,
Izak

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