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================================================
Thursday, August 5, 2004
Scott's Cluster System
Variation
Hello everyone,
This newsletter is a follow up on
last week's newsletter, where we
talked about Scott's Cluster System designed for street bets in Roulette.
I came up with a variation of it, that may be safer on your bankroll and I'd
like to share that with you.
Just to remind you, Scott's Cluster
system bets 1 unit on a Roulette street, such as street 1 (nos. 1,2,3).
If your bet wins within 11 spins, you make a profit, since it pays 11 to 1.
If your bet does not win within 11 spins, then you continue betting 1 unit
until your street hits. After it hits, you increase your bet by 1 unit
until it hits again. If you made a profit after the second hit, then
you start over again with 1 unit bet. If you haven't made a profit
yet, then you increase your bet again by 1 unit and keep betting on the same
street until it hits and makes a profit. The idea of the system is
that if a street hasn't hit for a long time, it will later on hit more
frequently as in clusters.
I have simulated Scott's original
system and you can download it from:
http://www.letstalkwinning.com/Scott-Cluster-Streets-Original.xls.
I have also set a parameter in cell
N2, where you can change the maximum bet amount of the progression.
The variation that I came up with
doesn't use the progression until your net running total is negative.
That means, that you are betting 1 unit flat, as long as your balance is
positive. If your balance goes negative, then you increase your bet by
1 unit on the same street until it hits, in short, you are back to the
original system, until your overall balance is positive again. Then
you bet flat only.
The following is what this variation
achieves: Every time your balance is negative, you start using the
progression, which brings you to a positive balance most of the time.
Then you have no further risk to your bankroll betting flat. Also, by
using the progression as less as possible, you are reducing the overall
exposure and thus the risk of a total bankroll ruin.
Now, we know that on the long run,
using flat bets in Roulette will yield to the house advantage. As a
matter of fact, you can view the simulation of this variation by downloading
it from:
http://www.letstalkwinning.com/Scott-Cluster-Streets.xls. If you
look at the chart, the graph goes well into the positive, until it goes back
to the negative, where the progression throws it back to the positive again.
So, how can we use this variation
and still make profits? The answer is the stock market approach, that
is buying low and selling high. Let's say you start using the system
at point 0 and your bankroll goes up, then drops again to negative, where
you start using the progression. Then your bankroll goes up again,
until it reaches 20-40 units. This is where you set your win goal and
quit the session.
Another session, you come back at
level 0 and follow the exact similar procedure as above. This way you
can quit at between +20-+40 units almost every session. The only time
that you will end up negative is if the progression does not bring you back
to positive. But since you are using this progression as less as
possible, the chances of this happening are tremendously reduced.
Here is a simulation run, which
illustrates this:
Number |
Street 1-12 |
Bet on Street |
W/L |
Bet |
Cash |
Net |
23 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-1 |
12 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-2 |
00 |
0 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-3 |
34 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-4 |
16 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-5 |
23 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-6 |
17 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-7 |
29 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-8 |
22 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-9 |
32 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-10 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-11 |
13 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-12 |
12 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-13 |
29 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-14 |
18 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-15 |
32 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-16 |
18 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-17 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-18 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-19 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
-8 |
26 |
9 |
1 |
L |
2 |
-2 |
-10 |
00 |
0 |
1 |
L |
2 |
-2 |
-12 |
20 |
7 |
1 |
L |
2 |
-2 |
-14 |
20 |
7 |
1 |
L |
2 |
-2 |
-16 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
L |
2 |
-2 |
-18 |
35 |
12 |
1 |
L |
2 |
-2 |
-20 |
18 |
6 |
1 |
L |
2 |
-2 |
-22 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
W |
2 |
22 |
0 |
26 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-1 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-2 |
16 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-3 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-4 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-6 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-7 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-8 |
25 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-9 |
36 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-10 |
15 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-11 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-12 |
20 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-13 |
18 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
-14 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
-3 |
00 |
0 |
1 |
L |
2 |
-2 |
-5 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
L |
2 |
-2 |
-7 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
W |
2 |
22 |
15 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
13 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
12 |
32 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
11 |
21 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
10 |
33 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
9 |
26 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
8 |
21 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
7 |
19 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
17 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
28 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
39 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
38 |
34 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
37 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
48 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
59 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
58 |
25 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
57 |
25 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
56 |
27 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
55 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
54 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
53 |
19 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
52 |
21 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
51 |
15 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
50 |
13 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
49 |
32 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
48 |
23 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
47 |
27 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
46 |
22 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
45 |
25 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
44 |
34 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
43 |
23 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
42 |
30 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
41 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
40 |
22 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
39 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
38 |
34 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
37 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
36 |
00 |
0 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
35 |
15 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
34 |
25 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
33 |
17 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
32 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
31 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
42 |
20 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
41 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
40 |
28 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
39 |
13 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
38 |
20 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
37 |
28 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
36 |
22 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
35 |
29 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
34 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
33 |
34 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
32 |
31 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
31 |
26 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
30 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
41 |
35 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
40 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
39 |
26 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
38 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
49 |
33 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
48 |
31 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
47 |
20 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
46 |
36 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
45 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
44 |
29 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
43 |
35 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
42 |
12 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
41 |
29 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
40 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
51 |
24 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
50 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
49 |
25 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
48 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
47 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
46 |
11 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
45 |
11 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
44 |
21 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
43 |
22 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
42 |
33 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
41 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
40 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
39 |
00 |
0 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
38 |
20 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
37 |
11 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
36 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
35 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
34 |
34 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
33 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
32 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
43 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
42 |
32 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
41 |
35 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
40 |
24 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
39 |
22 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
38 |
36 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
37 |
11 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
36 |
33 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
35 |
00 |
0 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
34 |
11 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
33 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
32 |
23 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
31 |
31 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
30 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
41 |
28 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
40 |
00 |
0 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
39 |
32 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
38 |
20 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
37 |
22 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
36 |
18 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
35 |
27 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
34 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
33 |
23 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
32 |
27 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
31 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
30 |
36 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
29 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
40 |
28 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
39 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
38 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
37 |
31 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
36 |
16 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
35 |
35 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
34 |
20 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
33 |
17 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
32 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
43 |
23 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
42 |
28 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
41 |
26 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
40 |
35 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
39 |
35 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
38 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
49 |
18 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
48 |
25 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
47 |
30 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
46 |
23 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
45 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
44 |
29 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
43 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
54 |
34 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
53 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
52 |
31 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
51 |
18 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
50 |
17 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
49 |
29 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
48 |
25 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
47 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
46 |
27 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
45 |
24 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
44 |
30 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
43 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
42 |
30 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
41 |
33 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
40 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
39 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
38 |
20 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
37 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
36 |
30 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
35 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
34 |
13 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
33 |
30 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
32 |
17 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
31 |
21 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
30 |
15 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
29 |
16 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
28 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
27 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
26 |
19 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
25 |
12 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
24 |
12 |
4 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
23 |
15 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
22 |
20 |
7 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
21 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
20 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
19 |
15 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
18 |
22 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
17 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
28 |
31 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
27 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
26 |
33 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
25 |
28 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
24 |
00 |
0 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
23 |
18 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
22 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
21 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
32 |
18 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
31 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
30 |
17 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
29 |
17 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
28 |
00 |
0 |
1 |
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-1 |
91 |
26 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
90 |
18 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
89 |
35 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
88 |
17 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
87 |
35 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
86 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
97 |
15 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
96 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
95 |
26 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
94 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
105 |
36 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
104 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
103 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
102 |
31 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
101 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
100 |
36 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
99 |
33 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
98 |
27 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
97 |
34 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
96 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
95 |
26 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
94 |
26 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
93 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
104 |
34 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
103 |
15 |
5 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
102 |
18 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
101 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
100 |
29 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
99 |
28 |
10 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
98 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
97 |
27 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
96 |
35 |
12 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
95 |
32 |
11 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
94 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
93 |
27 |
9 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
92 |
22 |
8 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
91 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
W |
1 |
11 |
102 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
101 |
16 |
6 |
1 |
L |
1 |
-1 |
100 |
As you can see, the progression is
used only when the drawdown brings the overall running net into a negative
balance. And using it only 2-3 times versus every time tremendously
reduces the risk of losing an entire bankroll. Moreover, when your net
is above zero, you have numerous opportunities to quit the session at a
positive profit level session after session.
Wishing you all the best,
Until
next week,
Izak
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