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===================================================    Monday, August 27, 2007
 
Does Vegas Really Know?

Hello everyone,

I found this very interesting and informative post by Lowell on the LTW discussion forum today and I'd like to share it with you all.

"Watched a couple shows on TV about Vegas and Gamblers. One show wanted to prove that a so called professional had no more chance than a man off the street.  While I watched the show I could tell they knew nothing about a professional gambler or they would not let on that they did.

These two men went all over the casino playing everything, slots, roulette, craps, every game in the casino, You guessed it right they both came out on the bad end.

Would a professional gambler play every thing in the casino?  A man off the street might, but a person in it to make some money will only play about 2 games that he/she has learned all he/she can about. Let's say you are without employment, and you depend on what you make a day in the casino. You have a $5000 bankroll.  Would you run around the casino playing everything under their roof?  Maybe all you wanted to make for the day was $100. How could you manage to do this without losing the whole 5000? Certainly not by playing every game. You would become very smart at about 2 games at most and have win stops and loss stops.

Next show I watched was showing how the casino will beat you in the overall long play. They said that a Blackjack player that wins and wins and doesn't lose is someone using something to lower the house advantage, and they try to get rid of players like this.  They would not speak about other games that you might pattern and lower the house advantage. Like waiting for a certain scenario to come up at a certain game then playing. Playing any game the same mechanical way all day will get you beat. You have to use brain power, with knowledge of what you have experienced in the past.

If one plays Baccarat and sits out 20 hands every shoe, but manages to win 5 units per shoe, is he/she cheating? Or is he/she waiting for the right time to play?  How does one know the right time to play? By experience and what the games have done in the past.

I once read where in Baccarat every deal of the hand both player and banker have the same chance of happening. But when you see 6 banks and 2 players who is winning this even chance of happening? You have to go with the side that is showing it is stronger, if what they say about even chance of happening is true.

One man on one of the shows finally said he had controls in place:  win goals and loss goals. I said they finally told how to stay ahead of a casino. .But was anyone listening to this short time statement this man made?

Probably walked out for a drink and missed the most important statement of the whole show. The casino loves to grill it in your head that you can not beat them.  And if you sit and play long enough they will.  But if you play short times and win short times?  Have stop loss in place, how can they beat you? My last three visits to the casino I have won overall $300, but on one visit I lost $100 and went home. Now who is still ahead? If you have more winning visits than losing then who stays ahead? How is this done? By loss stops and win stops.

Some say it is foolish to place win stops. Keep winning!  I say the longer you play the better opportunity the casino has to take your money.

Long ago before I used win stops I would win $100, then try for 200, but lose the 100 I made. So this taught me to get up and go home. Go home a winner while you are still one."

Thanking Lowell for his valuable input.

Wishing you all the best,
Izak

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