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================================================    Thursday, April 8, 2004
 
Stepladder Strategy on the Dark Side for Craps by PerryB and Improvements

Hello everyone,

If you don't want to risk a large bankroll, while using an effective strategy, then PerryB's Stepladder Strategy on the Dark Side is the right one for you. 

PerryB's methods are quite appreciated as the following discussion forum post shows:

"I am a big fan of PerryB. His strategy and thinking are right on target. My thoughts on money management is set a win goal and a loss goal before you go to the casino. DO THIS EVERY TIME. My win goal is 3 units and my loss limit is 5 units. I play an up as you win progression where the bets are from 1 to 3 or 4 units. If you reach the loss limit you MUST stop. By using this method of wagering you will limit your stay at the casino and not play too many decisions. I have realized that the key is not to play more at a lower amount but to play less with a larger starting bet. If you start with a bank of $100 and your first bet is $5 and you want to win $50 your chances of succeeding are not good. If not playing odds you will have to win 10 more bets than you lose and if you are betting the same amount. What I would do is start with a bet of at least $20, try to win $60 and set a loss limit of $100, not a cent more.

I play an up as you win progression, because I can reach the 5 goal win limit by just winning the first two bets. It will take 3 losses from the get go to lose to reach my loss limit.

A small up as you win or up as you lose progression is a great way to play.  Keep the bets small in relation to your starting bet. If your starting bet is 1 unit and you find yourself betting 40 units this is not good because your loss limit is too high compared to your win limit. Like Perry says , it will take too many wins to make up for one big loss. Your loss limit if lost, if you go to the casino twice and win both times you should be ahead. That is why my win goal is 3 and loss limit is 5. I don't want to lose too much in one visit where it would take more than 2 wins to make up the loss.

One thing I hope most will take away from this is, before you go to the Big C, set a win goal and loss goal, if you don't you probably will regret it.

Good Luck"

PerryB has some improvements over his Step-Ladder Strategy on the Dark Side designed for Craps, that he posted in the discussion forum.  Before the improvements, let's see what this strategy is all about:

"It's betting that a new shooter will not make 2 consecutive pass line wins. 

All bets are on the Don’t Pass line, with no odds with 3 stages, totaling 21 units. 

Stage 1:   1,  2.
Stage 2:    3,  4.
Stage 3:    5,  6.

The basic betting progression uses d’Alembert, that is:

After a loss, increase the next bet by 1 unit.
After a win, decrease the next bet by 1 unit.
After 2 consecutive losses, stop, and wait for the next shooter.

The tracking method: before making the first bet, track the table until a shooter makes at least 2 consecutive pass line wins and then a 7-out before starting the betting progression against the next shooter. 

Stage 1

Start with a 1-unit bet against a new shooter.
If the 1-bet wins, continue with the same bet.
If the 1-bet loses, bet 2 against the shooter’s next come-out roll.
If the 2-bet loses, stop betting, and wait for the next shooter.
If the 2-bet wins, regress the next bet back to 1 unit.

Stage 2

Start with 3 units against the next shooter.
Whenever the 3-unit bet wins, revert back to stage 1.
If the 3-bet loses, bet 4 against the shooter’s next come-out roll.
If the 4-bet wins, regress the next bet to 3 (the 4-bet may also be played as 6 units, reverting directly back to stage 1 after a win, or ending the session after a loss.)
If the 4-bet loses, stop betting.

See  above:

If no bets have been won up to this point, stage 3 should be cancelled, & the session ended.

Stage 3 (optional)

Start with 5 units against the next shooter.
If the 5-bet wins, the next bet would be 4.
From this point, 2 more consecutive losses will only be 4 & 5. The 6-unit bet would not be made.
If the 5-bet loses, bet 6 against the shooter’s next come-out roll.
If the 6-bet wins, the next bet would be 5, and then 4 after a win of 5 (with 3 consecutive wins, all previous losses have been recovered, and betting should revert back to stage 1.)
If the 6-bet loses, this session is over, and no more bets should be made.

A profit position of 3 units at any time should end the session, and use the tracking method again when starting a new session. 

FAQ 

Q: Why the (d’Alembert) betting progression?

A: Going up 1 unit after a loss, and down 1 unit after a win produces 1-unit profits when the “lose one / win one”, or “win one / lose one”  patterns occur. A session consisting of the same number of winning and losing bets is a winning session.

Q: Why not martingale? (doubling-up)

A: Martingale requires 3 times the risk capital for the same number of bets, and 1 losing session can set you back many sessions of hard-earned profits. (Martingale may be used for 2 stages only.)

Q: Why stop after only 2 consecutive losses?

A: To avoid losing all of your session money on only one shooter.

Q: Why use the tracking method?

A: To avoid the potential loss of one betting stage, and effectively give you 3 or 4 stages while only actually betting 2 or 3.

Q: Why revert back to stage 1 after winning the 3-unit bet?

A: You don’t ever want to be making higher bets than necessary. Protect your session money at all times. 

Q: Why end the session after only 3 (optional) stages?

A: Betting a 4th stage would require an additional 15 units, and more than 3 consecutive wins to get back to even.

Q: Why not make the 6-unit bet after losing 4 and 5?

A: In order to preserve the betting strategy of 2 bets against the next shooter, it would require an additional 7-unit bet to follow a losing 6.

Q: Why revert back to stage 1 after winning 6, 5, and 4 ?

A: For the same reason as after a winning 3-unit bet. (see  above)

Q: Why cancel stage 3 after 4 consecutive losses?

A: Winning sessions are usually made within the first 2 stages. Recovery at the stage 3 level requires 3 consecutive wins to get even, and is only about a 50% probability. (that’s why stage 3 is optional.) Be prepared to take occasionally small losses, as opposed to double losses half as often.

Q: Why end the session with a profit of only 3 units ?

A: 3 out of only 10 or 12 units at risk (for 2 stages) is a profit of 25 - 30% for only 1 winning session. Avoiding the risk of losing back 3 hard-earned units to only 2 consecutive losing bets is another practice in strict discipline. Track them - don’t lose them.

Important: all 1-unit profits from winning bets should be locked up, and never be brought into play during the current session. In the event of the loss of all 3 stages, they will make the buy-in for a new session that much less than the required 21 units."

This is what PerryB has to say about the improvements of this strategy, posted in the LTW discussion forum:

"The Stepladder (craps) strategy for the dark side (Don't Pass) was originally designed to take not more than 2 losses per betting stage against a new shooter. With 2 losses to 2 consecutive Pass line wins by a shooter, each stage is ended, and no further betting takes place against that shooter. (Stage 2 starts only against the next shooter after a seven-out.)

The option is always open for more cautious bettors NOT to make any Don't Pass bets until a shooter appears who actually makes 2 Pass line wins, thus producing only a virtual loss of two bets. Now, rather than risking a total of 6 bets in 3 stages against 3 shooters, you risk losing only 4 bets in 2 stages against the next 2 shooters.

During the past couple of years since this strategy was posted openly on www.dicesetter.com, despite its overall effectiveness reported to me by many who tried it, I have been trying to find ways to improve on it. The improvements that I have come up with are as follows:

1) Reduce each stage to only ONE loss per shooter. While this approach is far from either brain surgery or rocket science, and will occasionally result in losing out on a win when a shooter fails to make a 2nd consecutive Pass line win, the saving grace is NOT absorbing the 2nd loss when a 2nd consecutive Pass line win is made. This would now allow you to bet against 4 new shooters (some of whom will make at least 2 Pass line wins) with the same session bankroll that would ordinarily have lasted against only 2 shooters.

2) I would also suggest that the progression of losing Don't Pass bets from one shooter to the next be much less-aggressive than originally designed, perhaps risking only the same one-unit flat bet against each of the first 2 shooters, and only then increasing the bets to 2 units against each of the next 2 shooters.

This reduces the number of base unit wins needed the next time around to recover a losing session, and gets you back into the position of locking up units of profit much more quickly.

PerryB"

Thanking PerryB for his great method.

Wishing you all the best,
Until next week,
Izak

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