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Thursday, April 11, 2002
Where to Play - Ways to Apply FBMP - Test Results
The last two decades of the
twentieth century produced incredible change upon the gaming industry. Many would argue
that the proliferation of gaming throughout the country only made things better for
serious gamblers. Since you have even more options available to you in the 21st
century, the matter of where to play is no easy decision. And it's not one you should make
carelessly, either. Where you play is just as paramount to winning as the way you play,
because where you play directly effects your entire mental state - you're either
comfortable or you're not - no different than playing on your home turf or at an on-line
casino compared to an unfamiliar field.
First, let's talk about the more common considerations: For one, the particular game or
games you play is an obvious factor. If you only play blackjack, for example, with all the
variations in game rules, you would be wise to seek out only the most favorable playing
conditions. Unfortunately, few players actually do this. For another, many players
only go where they are comped the best.
Of all the considerations, here's the most dubious one of all: Many players want to be in
a resort atmosphere, or even a carnival atmosphere, so they choose the hotel not on the
strength of its casino, but on its sharks and tigers, and pirates and pyramids, and other
And then there's the matter of convenience. Most players simply go to the nearest casino.
If it's close - an easy drive, a short bus trip - why not? As long as you're not a
victim of a non-competitive and captive market, go ahead. But I'm talking about
players who live close to Las Vegas, Reno, Laughlin, Atlantic City. ..and other major
markets with lots of options. To no one' s surprise, such players are well in the
minority. Not everyone lives so close to these huge hubs of gambling, although that's
changing. For most of us, the pickings are such that we need a plane ticket.
More specifically, there's the issue of "friendliness." You should never play
where your action is not appreciated. And there are table minimums to contend with. You
should never play where the table minimum is too high for you. And there's the issue
of safety. You don't want to play where you have to worry about getting out of town with
your money. Some casino resorts have banking facilities, where you can deposit your
winnings before you leave the casino.
If we're just going to target craps, then certainly venue plays a small role in where you
play because this game has become remarkably standardized from Reno to the gambling boats
in Florida. So, if you live near Atlantic City, for example, it makes little sense to
spend five hours in the air, not to mention the airfare, as you head for Las Vegas.
If you live in the Midwest where riverboats are becoming commonplace, then that might be
the best choice for you. But maybe not. In too many cases, the tables are too crowded; the
number of rank beginners can be too much to deal with. And, for many, the confines of
riverboat gambling, as opposed to the sheer size of, say, the MGM Grand, is a bit too...
In some places, there is a lingering doubt among some players about how well gaming is
regulated. Is the place safe? As the gaming industry grows and matures, all the concerns
will likely fade away. So, the issue of where to play should hinge on your comfort
But can you be comfortable if the casino deals a bad game? Of course not. Simply
translated, that means that if the casino just an hour or two away from your home does not
offer the same great game you are accustomed to in Reno, for example, it makes absolutely
no sense to hop in the car, drive merrily along thinking about all that airfare you're
saving, get there, get clobbered, and drive home thinking about all that money you just
lost because you got suckered into a bad game.
And it isn't just blackjack. Let's say you're a video poker player. And let's use the same
nearby casino as an example. You're walking up and down the aisles looking at the pay
tables, and you're amazed that the machines are only 5-6s. And everyone's playing them.
You can't even find a machine available! You want the 6-9s like you expect in Vegas, but
there aren't any. Are you going to be suckered into playing these high-percentage,
low-payout machines? I hope not! I hope you're not that desperate to play!
I don't want you to think that the problem of high machine percentages or poor game rules
is only inherent to certain kinds of casinos, nor do I want you to think that only certain
markets share this notoriety. Someone who works in the slot machine industry recently
investigated the percentages of machines shipped into gaming markets outside of Nevada.
The results left him dumbfounded. There were many casinos, including some in
well-established gaming meccas, that ordered their machines set as low as 83%. That's a
Give the machine a dollar; it spits back 83 cents! And people are standing in line to play
these things?! Do you realize that a 17% game percentage is three times worse than the
infamously high percentage of a roulette wheel! Indeed, it was clear that accusations of
high machine percentages should not be focused on anyone segment of the gaming industry,
nor on any particular geographical location.
One of the other findings that's worth mentioning has to do with the competitiveness of
the market. Not surprisingly, casinos with no in-state or regional competition are usually
the ones to offer the worst percentages and least variety of machines. The price of
gambling is no different than the price of gas. Is there one gas station on the
corner? Are there four gas stations on the corner? You would probably be better served to
stay away from what the gaming industry calls "local market" casinos. Like other
industries, casinos need competition to make their "product " more attractive to
the consumer. Just make sure you know what the product is. The product is the percentages!
So if you're asking
"Where should I play?", the answer simply boils down to "where you feel
comfortable and where you can win".
There have been many
discussions about the system FBMP (Flat Bet Mini Play - Baccarat
system) announced about 3 months ago. This is a system that wins with flat bets.
In fact, it has beaten the entire "72 Days at the Baccarat Table" Zumma tester
book at 53% of all bets played continuously shoe after shoe for 600 shoes, as this is an
all hands system with no need for tracking nor waiting. You play every single
decision. So out of 45,000 decisions, 23,852 were winning bets and 21,148 were
losing bets, giving you 2,704 units of profits minus banker commissions.
The above result was obtained
without any money management considerations. If one would play more cautiously, one
would set a win stop limit at +5 units per shoe and a stop loss limit at -10 units per
shoe. With this kind of money management, the results are even better and safer.
Then a 40 unit bankroll will be quite sufficient, as it is very rare to lose 3
shoes in a row at -10 unit loss per shoe with FBMP.
For the last couple of months,
I have been experimenting with the system also in conjunction with mild progressions, not
because I wasn't happy with its performance with flat bets, but I felt a mild progression
would produce faster profits, with slightly higher risk on your bankroll. My
computer simulations have shown stunning results when I combined FBMP
with the progression documented in Superior Roulette System.
Just to give you an idea,
following are the test results of the first 30 shoes in the Zumma tester book comparing
flat bet mode to the Superior Roulette progression:
Shoe no. 1:
With flat bets, the highest profit was at +4 units, the lowest was at -11 units,
the shoe ended at -8 units, using money management one would stop at -10 units for this
With the progression, the profits rise up to +14 units with no drawdown.
Shoe no. 2:
With flat bets, the highest profit goes to +8 units, the lowest to -6 units, the shoe ends
with -4 units. At +5 unit one would quit the shoe.
With progression, profits rise to +16 units with no drawdown.
Shoe no. 3:
With flat bets, the highest profit goes to +12 units, the lowest to -2 units, where the
shoe ends. Again at +5 units one would quit a winner.
With progression, profits rise to +22 units, then a losing streak gives it all back.
In order to avoid this, one needs to set a profit target of +10 units and leave the
If you recall the derivative method, the best
way to apply the progression is after encountering a failure point on paper. This
will avoid one to play during any losing streak.
Shoe no. 4:
With flat bets, highest profit is at +9 units, lowest at -3 units, the shoe ends at +3
units. One quits a winner at +5 units.
With the progression, profits rise to +26 units with a drawdown of -10 units. With
the derivative method, you go to +19 unit profit after having waited for 5 consecutive
Shoe no. 5:
With flat bets, the highest profit goes up to +8 units, the lowest to +2 units, the
shoe ends at +6 units. Again, one quits at +5, winning the shoe.
With progression, profits rise to +29 units with no drawdown.
Shoe no. 6: With flat bets, the highest profit goes up to +6 units, the
lowest is at -9 units, the shoe ends at +2 units. One leaves the shoe at +5 when win
target is reached.
With progression, profits rise to +26 units after the first failure point encountered by
the derivative method. It's interesting now to note, that if we did not apply the
derivative, we would start the shoe with 6 consecutive losses and we would stop betting
after we reach the loss limit at -10 units.
Shoe no. 7:
With flat bets, the highest profit goes to +5 units, the lowest to -5 units, the shoe ends
at +2 units, one quits a winner at +5.
With progression, profits rise to +19 units after the first failure point encountered by
Shoe no. 8: With
flat bets, the highest profit goes to +15 units, the lowest is at -1 unit, the shoe ends
at +10 units, one quits at the win target of +5. The number of units at the end of
the shoe are carried over to the next shoe for the testing of continuous bets that
resulted in 53% winning rate for all 600 shoes.
With the progression, profits rise to +28 before any failure point is encountered.
Again, if we cut our losses to 10 units during failure points, you can quit the
shoe at +18 units. If you use the derivative method, you simply skip the failure
Shoe no. 9: Well,
we can't expect to win on every shoe. This one is a pretty bad one, where with flat
bets, there is an immediate drawdown to -19 units, which is the lowest point. The
shoe ends at -11 units. One would quit this shoe at the loss limit of -10 units.
The -11 units are carried over to the next shoe for continuous play.
The progression in itself doesn't help much. A losing streak is encountered up
front, where one would cut losses at -10 units. However, if the derivative method is
applied, and one uses the system after the failure point, the progression yields +12 units
by the end of the shoe.
Shoe no. 10: This
is an interesting shoe, as winnings and losses fluctuate around +4 units and -4 units flat
bets (the lowest point was -4 units), until profits rise to the highest point to +6 units.
The shoe ends at +5 units. One quits the shoe a winner at +5 units.
The progression has little drawdown and accumulates +24 units for the shoe.
Shoe no. 11: This is another shoe with good results. With flat
bets, the highest point is at +11 units, the lowest at -1 units. The shoe ends at:
+4 units. One quits a winner at +5 units.
The progression produces +21 units.
Shoe no. 12: What
a shoe! Profits keep rising. With flat bets, the highest peak is at: +14
units, the lowest point at -3 units. The shoe ends at the highest point at +14
units. One quits way before at +5 units.
The progression produces a stunning +31 units with absolutely no drawdown.
Shoe no. 13: This
is not such a good one. In fact, we need to limit our losses to -10 units. The
highest profit reached was +3 units with flat bets. The lowest is at -10 units. The
shoe ends at the lowest point at -10 units.
The progression on the other hand produces +5 units until the first failure point, then
produces another +12 units. This shows the superiority of combining the
derivative method with the progression.
Shoe no. 14: With
flat bets, we are at +2 units at most, and at -7 units at the lowest. The shoe ends
at -4 units. We don't quit this shoe and the game gets carried over to the next
The progression, on the other hand, produces +18 units with negligible
Shoe no. 15: With
flat bets, we go to only +1 unit at the highest and to -8 units the lowest.
Considering the -4 units carried over from the previous shoe, we need to quit at
-10 unit loss. Otherwise, the shoe ends at -4 units.
The progression produces gradually +16 units.
Now that you understand how to
apply the combination of the systems, and what kind of results it produces, I will just
show the outcome of the remaining 15 shoes:
Shoe no. 16:
Flat bets: Highest: +4, Lowest: -12 units, Shoe ends at: -11 units, Quit at -10 units.
Progression: +10 units, drawdown: -22 units, with derivative: +11 units, 2 failure points.
Shoe no. 17: Flat
bets: Highest: +9 units, Lowest: -2 units, quit at +5 units, shoe ends at -1 unit.
Progression: +20 units, no drawdown, one failure point at the end of shoe eliminated by
Shoe no. 18: Flat
bets: Highest: +1 unit, Lowest: -14 units, quit at -10 units, shoe ends at: -8 units.
Progression: +12 units after 1 failure point skipped by the derivative.
Shoe no. 19: Flat
bets: Highest: +5, Lowest: -6, Quit at +5, Shoe ends at: -3.
Progression: +21 units, 2 failure points skipped by derivative.
Shoe no. 20: Flat
bets: Highest: +4, Lowest: -8, carry over -7 (end of shoe).
Progression: +18 units, drawdown -10, derivative not applicable (no consecutive losses).
Shoe no. 21: Flat
bets: Highest: +10 units, Lowest: -4 units, Quit at: +5 units, Shoe ends at: -3 units.
Progression: +23 units, derivative applied once.
Shoe no. 22: Flat
bets: Highest: +6, Lowest: -7, Quit at: +5 units. Shoe ends at -7.
Progression: +21 units, with derivative applied twice.
Shoe no. 23: Flat
bets: Highest: +5, Lowest: -8, Quit at: +5. Shoe end at: +4.
Progression: +29 units, after 1 failure point eliminated by derivative.
Shoe no. 24: Flat
bets: Highest: +6, Lowest: -2, Quit at +5, Shoe end is at: +2.
Progression: +23 units, no drawdown and no derivative.
Shoe no. 25: Flat
bets: Highest: +9 units, Lowest: -8 units, Quit at +5, shoe end: +7.
Progression: +33 units, after derivative applied once.
Shoe no. 26: Flat
bets: Highest: +2, Lowest: -7, carry over to next shoe, Shoe ends at: -5.
Progression: +21 units, derivative applied twice.
Shoe no. 27: Flat
bets: Highest: +11, Lowest: -1, Quit at +5, Shoe ends at: -1.
Progression: +25 units, derivative applied once.
Shoe no. 28: Flat
bets: Highest: +4, Lowest: -7, carry over to next shoe, Shoe ends at: -3.
Progression: +17 units, derivative applied twice.
Shoe no. 29: Flat
bets: Highest: +11, Lowest: +4, Quit at +5, Shoe ends at: +6.
Progression: +28 units, derivative applied twice.
Shoe no. 30: Flat
bets: Highest: +23 units, Lowest: +4 units, Quit at +5. Shoe ends at +23
Progression: +37 units, no derivative applied.
The above results give you a
good indication of the performance of the Superior Roulette's progression applied to the
betting selection of FBMP. To make the combination an absolute winner, we can add
money management to the application of the derivative method on top of the progression.
And this you can achieve by
playing on paper until you encounter 5 consecutive losing bets, which we identify as a
failure point according to the derivative method, then apply FBMP with Superior Roulette's
progression until you are 5 units ahead. Then track for another failure point of 5
consecutive losing bets and go for another 5 units. This way you will easily make 10
units per shoe. This is what is meant by applying the derivative method twice within
the shoe. The only way you could lose at this scenario is if you would have another
5 consecutive losing bets while you were playing the system, but its very rare. It
could happen once in 10 shoes, and that would cost you only 15 units. By that
time, you would have made nearly 80-90 unit profit.
To summarize the played 30
shoes, with flat bets you end up with -10, +5, +5, +5, +5, +5, +5, +5, -10, +5, +5, +5,
-10, -10, -10, +5, -10, +5, +5, +5, +5, +5, +5, +5, +5 or +95 - 60 = +35 units.
With progression, you accumulate 14, 16, 22, 19, 29, 26, 19, 18, 12, 24, 21, 31, 12, 12,
18, 16, 10, 20, 12, 21, 18, 23, 21, 29, 23, 33, 21, 25, 27, 28, 37 or 657 units provided
you successfully skip all failure points.
However, since you can't be sure when the failure points will occur, your best bet is to
apply the money management described in conjunction with FBMP, the progression and the
derivative method, then those results will be +5 units for 8 shoes, +10 units for 18 shoes
totalling 40+180 = 220 units for the 30 shoes.
FBMP is priced at $250 and
Superior Roulette System at $175. There is a special going for the month of April.
If you purchase both systems, you will get a discount of $100 on the price of both.
That is you will get both FBMP and Superior Roulette for only $325. I will
add to it as a free bonus, the documentation of the combined strategy.
For the ones who have already
purchased either FBMP or Superior Roulette,
I will give you the same discount of $100 upon your purchase of the second system.
You can place your orders at
the secure order form
and I will process your order as per the specified special.
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