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=========================================   Thursday, April 11, 2002
 
Where to Play - Ways to Apply FBMP - Test Results

Hello everyone,

The last two decades of the twentieth century produced incredible change upon the gaming industry. Many would argue that the proliferation of gaming throughout the country only made things better for serious gamblers.  Since you have even more options available to you in the 21st century, the matter of where to play is no easy decision. And it's not one you should make carelessly, either. Where you play is just as paramount to winning as the way you play, because where you play directly effects your entire mental state - you're either comfortable or you're not - no different than playing on your home turf or at an on-line casino compared to an unfamiliar field.

First, let's talk about the more common considerations: For one, the particular game or games you play is an obvious factor. If you only play blackjack, for example, with all the variations in game rules, you would be wise to seek out only the most favorable playing conditions. Unfortunately, few players actually do this.  For another, many players only go where they are comped the best.

Of all the considerations, here's the most dubious one of all: Many players want to be in a resort atmosphere, or even a carnival atmosphere, so they choose the hotel not on the strength of its casino, but on its sharks and tigers, and pirates and pyramids, and other glitzy stuff.

And then there's the matter of convenience. Most players simply go to the nearest casino. If it's close - an easy drive, a short bus trip - why not?  As long as you're not a victim of a non-competitive and captive market, go ahead.  But I'm talking about players who live close to Las Vegas, Reno, Laughlin, Atlantic City. ..and other major markets with lots of options.  To no one' s surprise, such players are well in the minority. Not everyone lives so close to these huge hubs of gambling, although that's changing. For most of us, the pickings are such that we need a plane ticket.

More specifically, there's the issue of "friendliness." You should never play where your action is not appreciated. And there are table minimums to contend with. You should never play where the table minimum is too high for you.  And there's the issue of safety. You don't want to play where you have to worry about getting out of town with your money.  Some casino resorts have banking facilities, where you can deposit your winnings before you leave the casino.

If we're just going to target craps, then certainly venue plays a small role in where you play because this game has become remarkably standardized from Reno to the gambling boats in Florida. So, if you live near Atlantic City, for example, it makes little sense to spend five hours in the air, not to mention the airfare, as you head for Las Vegas.

If you live in the Midwest where riverboats are becoming commonplace, then that might be the best choice for you. But maybe not. In too many cases, the tables are too crowded; the number of rank beginners can be too much to deal with. And, for many, the confines of riverboat gambling, as opposed to the sheer size of, say, the MGM Grand, is a bit too... well... confining.

In some places, there is a lingering doubt among some players about how well gaming is regulated. Is the place safe? As the gaming industry grows and matures, all the concerns will likely fade away.  So, the issue of where to play should hinge on your comfort index.

But can you be comfortable if the casino deals a bad game? Of course not. Simply translated, that means that if the casino just an hour or two away from your home does not offer the same great game you are accustomed to in Reno, for example, it makes absolutely no sense to hop in the car, drive merrily along thinking about all that airfare you're saving, get there, get clobbered, and drive home thinking about all that money you just lost because you got suckered into a bad game.

And it isn't just blackjack. Let's say you're a video poker player. And let's use the same nearby casino as an example. You're walking up and down the aisles looking at the pay tables, and you're amazed that the machines are only 5-6s. And everyone's playing them. You can't even find a machine available! You want the 6-9s like you expect in Vegas, but there aren't any. Are you going to be suckered into playing these high-percentage, low-payout machines? I hope not! I hope you're not that desperate to play!

I don't want you to think that the problem of high machine percentages or poor game rules is only inherent to certain kinds of casinos, nor do I want you to think that only certain markets share this notoriety. Someone who works in the slot machine industry recently investigated the percentages of machines shipped into gaming markets outside of Nevada. The results left him dumbfounded. There were many casinos, including some in well-established gaming meccas, that ordered their machines set as low as 83%. That's a 17% game!

Give the machine a dollar; it spits back 83 cents! And people are standing in line to play these things?! Do you realize that a 17% game percentage is three times worse than the infamously high percentage of a roulette wheel! Indeed, it was clear that accusations of high machine percentages should not be focused on anyone segment of the gaming industry, nor on any particular geographical location.

One of the other findings that's worth mentioning has to do with the competitiveness of the market. Not surprisingly, casinos with no in-state or regional competition are usually the ones to offer the worst percentages and least variety of machines. The price of gambling is no different than the price of gas.  Is there one gas station on the corner? Are there four gas stations on the corner? You would probably be better served to stay away from what the gaming industry calls "local market" casinos. Like other industries, casinos need competition to make their "product " more attractive to the consumer. Just make sure you know what the product is. The product is the percentages!

So if you're asking "Where should I play?", the answer simply boils down to "where you feel comfortable and where you can win".

There have been many discussions about the system FBMP (Flat Bet Mini Play - Baccarat system) announced about 3 months ago.  This is a system that wins with flat bets. In fact, it has beaten the entire "72 Days at the Baccarat Table" Zumma tester book at 53% of all bets played continuously shoe after shoe for 600 shoes, as this is an all hands system with no need for tracking nor waiting.  You play every single decision.  So out of 45,000 decisions, 23,852 were winning bets and 21,148 were losing bets, giving you 2,704 units of profits minus banker commissions.

The above result was obtained without any money management considerations.  If one would play more cautiously, one would set a win stop limit at +5 units per shoe and a stop loss limit at -10 units per shoe.  With this kind of money management, the results are even better and safer.   Then a 40 unit bankroll will be quite sufficient, as it is very rare to lose 3 shoes in a row at -10 unit loss per shoe with FBMP.

For the last couple of months, I have been experimenting with the system also in conjunction with mild progressions, not because I wasn't happy with its performance with flat bets, but I felt a mild progression would produce faster profits, with slightly higher risk on your bankroll.  My computer simulations have shown stunning results when I combined FBMP with the progression documented in Superior Roulette System.

Just to give you an idea, following are the test results of the first 30 shoes in the Zumma tester book comparing flat bet mode to the Superior Roulette progression:

Shoe no. 1:   With flat bets, the highest profit was at +4 units, the lowest was at -11 units, the shoe ended at -8 units, using money management one would stop at -10 units for this shoe. 
With the progression, the profits rise up to +14 units with no drawdown.

Shoe no. 2: With flat bets, the highest profit goes to +8 units, the lowest to -6 units, the shoe ends with -4 units.  At +5 unit one would quit the shoe. 
With progression,  profits rise to +16 units with no drawdown.

Shoe no. 3: With flat bets, the highest profit goes to +12 units, the lowest to -2 units, where the shoe ends.  Again at +5 units one would quit a winner. 
With progression, profits rise to +22 units, then a losing streak gives it all back.   In order to avoid this, one needs to set a profit target of +10 units and leave the shoe.

If you recall the derivative method, the best way to apply the progression is after encountering a failure point on paper.  This will avoid one to play during any losing streak.

Shoe no. 4: With flat bets, highest profit is at +9 units, lowest at -3 units, the shoe ends at +3 units.  One quits a winner at +5 units.
With the progression, profits rise to +26 units with a drawdown of -10 units.  With the derivative method, you go to +19 unit profit after having waited for 5 consecutive losses.

Shoe no. 5:   With flat bets, the highest profit goes up to +8 units, the lowest to +2 units, the shoe ends at +6 units.  Again, one quits at +5, winning the shoe.
With progression, profits rise to +29 units with no drawdown.

Shoe no. 6: With flat bets, the highest profit goes up to +6 units, the lowest is at -9 units, the shoe ends at +2 units.  One leaves the shoe at +5 when win target is reached.
With progression, profits rise to +26 units after the first failure point encountered by the derivative method.  It's interesting now to note, that if we did not apply the derivative, we would start the shoe with 6 consecutive losses and we would stop betting after we reach the loss limit at -10 units.

Shoe no. 7: With flat bets, the highest profit goes to +5 units, the lowest to -5 units, the shoe ends at +2 units, one quits a winner at +5.
With progression, profits rise to +19 units after the first failure point encountered by the derivative.

Shoe no. 8: With flat bets, the highest profit goes to +15 units, the lowest is at -1 unit, the shoe ends at +10 units, one quits at the win target of +5.  The number of units at the end of the shoe are carried over to the next shoe for the testing of continuous bets that resulted in 53% winning rate for all 600 shoes.
With the progression, profits rise to +28 before any failure point is encountered.   Again, if we cut our losses to 10 units during failure points, you can quit the shoe at +18 units.  If you use the derivative method, you simply skip the failure points.

Shoe no. 9: Well, we can't expect to win on every shoe.  This one is a pretty bad one, where with flat bets, there is an immediate drawdown to -19 units, which is the lowest point.  The shoe ends at -11 units.  One would quit this shoe at the loss limit of -10 units.   The -11 units are carried over to the next shoe for continuous play.
The progression in itself doesn't help much.  A losing streak is encountered up front, where one would cut losses at -10 units.  However, if the derivative method is applied, and one uses the system after the failure point, the progression yields +12 units by the end of the shoe.

Shoe no. 10: This is an interesting shoe, as winnings and losses fluctuate around +4 units and -4 units flat bets (the lowest point was -4 units), until profits rise to the highest point to +6 units.   The shoe ends at +5 units.  One quits the shoe a winner at +5 units.
The progression has little drawdown and accumulates +24 units for the shoe.

Shoe no. 11: This is another shoe with good results.  With flat bets, the highest point is at +11 units, the lowest at -1 units.  The shoe ends at: +4 units.  One quits a winner at +5 units.
The progression produces +21 units.

Shoe no. 12: What a shoe!  Profits keep rising.  With flat bets, the highest peak is at: +14 units, the lowest point at -3 units.  The shoe ends at the highest point at +14 units.  One quits way before at +5 units.
The progression produces a stunning +31 units with absolutely no drawdown.

Shoe no. 13: This is not such a good one.  In fact, we need to limit our losses to -10 units.  The highest profit reached was +3 units with flat bets. The lowest is at -10 units.  The shoe ends at the lowest point at -10 units.
The progression on the other hand produces +5 units until the first failure point, then produces another +12 units.   This shows the superiority of combining the derivative method with the progression. 

Shoe no. 14: With flat bets, we are at +2 units at most, and at -7 units at the lowest.  The shoe ends at -4 units.  We don't quit this shoe and the game gets carried over to the next shoe.
The progression, on the other hand, produces +18 units with negligible drawdown.

Shoe no. 15:  With flat bets, we go to only +1 unit at the highest and to -8 units the lowest.   Considering the -4 units carried over from the previous shoe, we need to quit at -10 unit loss.  Otherwise, the shoe ends at -4 units.
The progression produces gradually +16 units.

Now that you understand how to apply the combination of the systems, and what kind of results it produces, I will just show the outcome of the remaining 15 shoes:

Shoe no. 16: Flat bets: Highest: +4, Lowest: -12 units, Shoe ends at: -11 units, Quit at -10 units.
Progression: +10 units, drawdown: -22 units, with derivative: +11 units, 2 failure points.

Shoe no. 17: Flat bets:  Highest: +9 units, Lowest: -2 units, quit at +5 units, shoe ends at -1 unit.
Progression: +20 units, no drawdown, one failure point at the end of shoe eliminated by derivative.

Shoe no. 18: Flat bets: Highest: +1 unit, Lowest: -14 units, quit at -10 units, shoe ends at: -8 units.
Progression: +12 units after 1 failure point skipped by the derivative.

Shoe no. 19: Flat bets: Highest: +5, Lowest: -6, Quit at +5, Shoe ends at: -3.
Progression: +21 units, 2 failure points skipped by derivative.

Shoe no. 20: Flat bets: Highest: +4, Lowest: -8, carry over -7 (end of shoe).
Progression: +18 units, drawdown -10, derivative not applicable (no consecutive losses).

Shoe no. 21: Flat bets: Highest: +10 units, Lowest: -4 units, Quit at: +5 units, Shoe ends at: -3 units.
Progression: +23 units, derivative applied once.

Shoe no. 22: Flat bets: Highest: +6, Lowest: -7, Quit at: +5 units.  Shoe ends at -7.
Progression: +21 units, with derivative applied twice.

Shoe no. 23: Flat bets:  Highest: +5, Lowest: -8, Quit at: +5. Shoe end at: +4.
Progression: +29 units, after 1 failure point eliminated by derivative.

Shoe no. 24: Flat bets: Highest: +6, Lowest: -2, Quit at +5, Shoe end is at: +2.
Progression: +23 units, no drawdown and no derivative.

Shoe no. 25: Flat bets: Highest: +9 units, Lowest: -8 units, Quit at +5, shoe end: +7.
Progression: +33 units, after derivative applied once.

Shoe no. 26: Flat bets: Highest: +2, Lowest: -7, carry over to next shoe, Shoe ends at: -5.
Progression: +21 units, derivative applied twice.

Shoe no. 27: Flat bets:  Highest: +11, Lowest: -1, Quit at +5, Shoe ends at: -1.
Progression: +25 units, derivative applied once.

Shoe no. 28: Flat bets:  Highest: +4, Lowest: -7, carry over to next shoe, Shoe ends at: -3.
Progression: +17 units, derivative applied twice.

Shoe no. 29: Flat bets: Highest: +11, Lowest: +4, Quit at +5, Shoe ends at: +6.
Progression: +28 units, derivative applied twice. 

Shoe no. 30: Flat bets:  Highest: +23 units, Lowest: +4 units, Quit at +5.  Shoe ends at +23 units!!
Progression: +37 units, no derivative applied.

The above results give you a good indication of the performance of the Superior Roulette's progression applied to the betting selection of FBMP.  To make the combination an absolute winner, we can add money management to the application of the derivative method on top of the progression.

And this you can achieve by playing on paper until you encounter 5 consecutive losing bets, which we identify as a failure point according to the derivative method, then apply FBMP with Superior Roulette's progression until you are 5 units ahead.  Then track for another failure point of 5 consecutive losing bets and go for another 5 units.  This way you will easily make 10 units per shoe.  This is what is meant by applying the derivative method twice within the shoe.  The only way you could lose at this scenario is if you would have another 5 consecutive losing bets while you were playing the system, but its very rare.  It could happen once in 10 shoes, and that would cost you only 15 units.   By that time, you would have made nearly 80-90 unit profit. 

To summarize the played 30 shoes, with flat bets you end up with -10, +5, +5, +5, +5, +5, +5, +5, -10, +5, +5, +5, -10, -10, -10, +5, -10, +5, +5, +5, +5, +5, +5, +5, +5 or +95 - 60 = +35 units.

With progression, you accumulate 14, 16, 22, 19, 29, 26, 19, 18, 12, 24, 21, 31, 12, 12, 18, 16, 10, 20, 12, 21, 18, 23, 21, 29, 23, 33, 21, 25, 27, 28, 37 or 657 units provided you successfully skip all failure points. 

However, since you can't be sure when the failure points will occur, your best bet is to apply the money management described in conjunction with FBMP, the progression and the derivative method, then those results will be +5 units for 8 shoes, +10 units for 18 shoes totalling 40+180 = 220 units for the 30 shoes.

FBMP is priced at $250 and Superior Roulette System at $175.  There is a special going for the month of April.   If you purchase both systems, you will get a discount of $100 on the price of both.   That is you will get both FBMP and Superior Roulette for only $325.  I will add to it as a free bonus, the documentation of the combined strategy.

For the ones who have already purchased either FBMP or Superior Roulette, I will give you the same discount of $100 upon your purchase of the second system.

You can place your orders at the secure order form here and I will process your order as per the specified special.

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